Suchergebnisse

Der durch die "Ölschocks" von 1973/74 und 1979/80 geprägten Erwartung, daß die arabische Welt aufgrund ihrer Verfügungsgewalt über einen beträchtlichen Teil der Erdölquellen zu einem international einflußreichen wirtschaftlichem und politischem Machtblock heranwachsen würde, stellt der Autor die reale Entwicklung entgegen und diskutiert Zusammenhänge zwischen sozio-ökonomischen Faktoren und internationalen Machtpositionen. (DÜI-Hns)

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- About the Author -- Chapter 1 An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends -- Repeating Cycles -- The Social and Political Cycle -- The Business Cycle -- Super Cycles in Financial Markets -- Psychology and Financial Market Super Cycles -- Part I Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles -- Chapter 2 Equity Cycles and Their Drivers -- The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle -- 1. Despair -- 2. Hope -- 3. Growth -- 4. Optimism -- The Drivers of the Four Phases -- The Cycle and Bear Markets -- Identifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market -- Valuations and the Market Inflection -- Growth and the Market Inflection -- Combining Growth and Valuation as a Signal -- Inflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection -- Combining Growth and Interest Rates -- Chapter 3 Super Cycles and Their Drivers -- Super Cycles in Economic Activity -- The Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s -- Super Cycles in Inflation -- Super Cycles in Interest Rates -- Super Cycles and Government Debt -- Super Cycles in Inequality -- Super Cycles in Financial Markets -- Super Cycles in Equities -- 1. 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom -- 2. 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle -- 3. 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates -- 1. 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns -- 2. 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles -- Part II Analysing Post-War Super Cycles -- Chapter 4 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom -- International Agreements and Falling Risk Premia -- Strong Economic Growth -- Technological Innovation -- Low and Stable Real Interest Rates -- A Boom in World Trade -- A Baby Boom -- The Consumer and Credit Boom -- All-Consuming Consumerism -- Chapter 5 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns -- A Lost Decade for Investors -- The Bubble Before the Bust -- High Interest Rates and Low Growth.

"This book is about economic and financial market cycles and the factors that affect them. The motivation for writing it has been my longstanding fascination with how repeated patterns of behaviour and market cycles seem to exist despite the enormous changes that have occurred in economies, society and technology over time."