Money Matters: Global Banks, Safe Assets and Monetary Autonomy
In: Documento CEDE No. 19
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In: Documento CEDE No. 19
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This paper depicts an often neglected channel of transmission of monetary policy, namely international safety appetite, as an important source of production and risk-taking international monetary spillovers. The model features a local economy with exogenous financial frictions that lead firms to need both local and foreign financing to pay for their factors of production. Global and local risk-averse banks supply firms with risky loans while buying safe assets to governments to hedge themselves against equity shocks. Monetary policy shocks of a hegemon currency issuer affect returns obtained by banks for the risky loans they concede, altering these agents' risk pricing and balance sheet composition. Main results outline that global monetary policy tightening reduces the returns of risky global loans, inducing global banks to reduce risky loan creation, ultimately decreasing both production and consumption volatility internationally. Two more secondary results arise. First, local monetary authorities may counteract global monetary policy spillovers, but this will entail a trade-off between boosting production and reducing consumption volatility. Second, both global and local expansive monetary policy increase the demand for global safe assets, relaxing the budget constraint of monopolistic global safe asset issuers. Understanding the international safety appetite mechanism of transmission appears to be of critical importance as it may impact the effectiveness of monetary policy in open economies as well as its optimal design.
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The establishment of commercial forest plantations requires the selection of sites where reasonable profitability can be attained. A financial analysis was made for the identification of the most suitable areas for the establishment of new Pinus patula plantations in the central region of Antioquia, Colombia. The analysis was performed assuming basic silvicultural treatments at the establishment but no management during the entire rotation period. A volume yield data at the stand level was obtained from a previously fitted model that uses biophysical variables and stand density as predictors. The estimated stand volume, a detailed cash flow, and a derived stumpage price were combined to perform a financial analysis. The Land Expectation Value (LEV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at the optimal rotation age, along with their spatial variation, were calculated in this study. Results suggest that the estimated volume and the current stumpage price are not sufficient to guarantee reasonable profitability for new timberland investments. While the LEV was negative, the IRR was in the range 4.1±1.5%, which is less than the discount rate of 6.8% used in the financial analysis. However, a positive LEV and an IRR at 8% would be achieved if forest productivity increases by 20% because of silvicultural practices or costs reduction in a similar proportion (obtaining IRRs up to 8.4%). Moreover, if the government provide subsidies, the IRR would increase up to 10.3% (without requiring an increase in productivity or a decrease in costs) on sites with high growth potential (mean annual increment greater than 16 m3 ha-1 year-1), and close to the mills (less than 45 km radii). ; El establecimiento de plantaciones forestales comerciales requiere seleccionar sitios que garanticen una rentabilidad razonable para inversiones forestales. Se realizó un análisis financiero con el fin de identificar las áreas con mejor aptitud para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones de Pinus patula en la zona central de Antioquia, Colombia. El análisis se realizó asumiendo tratamientos silviculturales básicos en el establecimiento, pero ningún manejo durante el período de rotación. Información de rendimiento forestal en volumen a nivel de rodal se obtuvo de un modelo previamente ajustado, el cual depende de variables biofísicas y de la densidad de rodal. El volumen estimado a nivel de rodal, un flujo de caja detallado, y el precio de la madera en pie, se usaron en el análisis financiero. Se calcularon como criterios de bondad de inversión el Valor Económico del Suelo (VES) y la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) a la edad óptima de rotación, así como su variación espacial. Los resultados sugieren que el volumen estimado de madera y los actuales precios no son lo suficientemente altos para garantizar una rentabilidad razonable para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones. Mientras el VES estimado fue negativo, la TIR encontrada se ubicó en el rango 4,1±1,5%, la cual es menor a la tasa de descuento de 6,8% usada en el análisis financiero. No obstante, valores positivos de VES pueden alcanzarse si se realizaran tratamientos silviculturales que conlleven a un aumento de la productividad forestal de 20%, o a una reducción de costos de la misma magnitud, alcanzando una TIR de hasta 8,4%. En un escenario de subsidios a la reforestación proporcionados por el gobierno, la TIR podría incrementar hasta 10,3%, sin requerir aumentos en la productividad o disminución de los costos, en sitios con alto potencial de crecimiento (incremento medio anual mayor a 16 m3 ha-1 año-1), y localizados a un radio de 45 km de los centros de transformación.
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In: Lecturas de economía, Heft 46, S. 73-94
ISSN: 2323-0622
Las condiciones naturales y la infraestructura de servicios existente en la playa de Dichato (VIII Región-Chile), posibilitan la presencia de un considerable número de familias durante las temporadas de verano. Mediante la adecuada aplicación del método del costo de viaje, es posible estimar la demanda recreacional de la playa y sus beneficios económicos. El documento privilegia la modelación del número de viajes efectuados durante un período de tiempo determinado, y en este sentido presenta los resultados econométricos de los siguientes modelos estadísticos: estimación por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios de una forma funcional lineal (OLSL), y de una forma semi-log (OLSS); estimación por máxima verosimilitud de una forma funcional lineal (MLEL), de una semi-log (MLES), de una distribución Poisson tanto general (POIS) como truncada (TPOIS), y de una distribución de una Binomial Negativa también general (BNEG) como truncada (TBNEG). En total son ocho (8) modelos, de los cuales OLSL, OLSS, MLEL y MLES se caracterizan por generar estimadores basados en distribuciones de probabilidades continuas. Los restantes modelos POIS, TPOIS, BNEG y TBNEG, corresponden a distribuciones discretas.
In: Lecturas de economía, Heft 53, S. 7-31
ISSN: 2323-0622
El artículo presenta la comparación de las medidas de bienestar, obtenidas mediante dos interpretaciones teóricas para el método de valoración contingente (VC) con formato binario. En primer lugar se discute el enfoque de diferencia de la función de utilidad indirecta. Posteriormente se desarrolla la alternativa conocida como función de variación. Se estiman dos formas funcionales (lineal y logarítmica) para cada estructura teórica, y se calculan las respectivas medias y medianas como medidas de bienestar. Para estimar sus varianzas, se utiliza un procedimiento de simulación que genera una distribución empírica de las medidas de bienestar para la definición de los intervalos de confianza. Alternativamente se utiliza el método delta, el cual aproxima linealmente las medidas de bienestar usando la expansión de la serie de Taylor de primer orden. Palabras Clave: Valoración contingente, función indirecta de utilidad, función de variación.
In: Poliantea, Band 16, Heft 29, S. 64-69
ISSN: 2145-3101
In: Desarrollo y sociedad, Heft 79, S. 91-124
ISSN: 1900-7760, 0120-3584
Foreign Aid plays an increasingly important role in the political and economic dynamics of Latin America. This article analyses the findings regarding the relationships between donors and partners in the management of international cooperation in the city of Medellin, for the period comprehended between 2003 and 2008. The detailed content analysis of the interviews conducted with a representative sample of key players of international cooperation in the city, has enabled us to identify the key moments that characterize and dynamize those relationships as. basically we found that successful management of Foreign Aid must consider the following key moments: identification of partners and sources of international cooperation; building trust and credibility; forming partnerships; developing plans and bargaining and finally relationships with partners and community. ; La Cooperación Internacional juega un papel cada vez más importante en las dinámicas políticas y económicas de América Latina. El presente artículo muestra los hallazgos sobre las relaciones donante-receptor, en la gestión de la cooperación internacional en la ciudad de Medellín, respecto al periodo comprendido entre los años 2003 y 2008.A partir de un estudio minucioso de los contenidos de las entrevistas realizadas a los actores significativos de la cooperación internacional en la ciudad, se identifican los principales momentos que caracterizan y dinamizan dichas relaciones. Fundamentalmente encontramos que una buena gestión de la cooperación internacional debe considerarlos siguientes momentos: la identificación de los socios y de las fuentes de cooperación internacional; la generación de confianza y credibilidad; la conformación de alianzas; la elaboración de planes y negociación y, finalmente, la relación ejecutor comunidad.
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In: Lecturas de economía, Heft 86, S. 153-178
ISSN: 2323-0622
In: Environmental science & policy, Band 76, S. 40-49
ISSN: 1462-9011
After more than 50-years of armed conflict, Colombia is now transitioning to a more stable social and political climate due to a series of peace agreements between the government and different armed groups. Consequences of these socio-economic and political changes on ecosystems are largely uncertain, but there is growing concern about derived increases in environmental degradation. Here, we review the capacity of Colombia to monitor the state of its ecosystems and their rate of change over time. We found several important programs currently set in place by different institutions as well as by independent groups of scientists that address different aspects of environmental monitoring. However, most of the current initiatives could be improved in terms of data coverage, quality and access, and could be better articulated among each other. We propose a set of activities that would increase the capacity of Colombia to monitor its ecosystems, provide useful information to policy makers, and facilitate scientific research. These include: 1) the establishment of a national center for ecological synthesis that focuses on analyzing existing information; 2) the establishment of an ecological observatory system that collects new information, integrates remote sensing products, and produces near real-time products on key ecological variables; and 3) the creation of new platforms for dialog and action within existing scientific and policy groups. © 2017 The Authors
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In: https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-r52q-xf10
After more than 50-years of armed conflict, Colombia is now transitioning to a more stable social and political climate due to a series of peace agreements between the government and different armed groups. Consequences of these socio-economic and political changes on ecosystems are largely uncertain, but there is growing concern about derived increases in environmental degradation. Here, we review the capacity of Colombia to monitor the state of its ecosystems and their rate of change over time. We found several important programs currently set in place by different institutions as well as by independent groups of scientists that address different aspects of environmental monitoring. However, most of the current initiatives could be improved in terms of data coverage, quality and access, and could be better articulated among each other. We propose a set of activities that would increase the capacity of Colombia to monitor its ecosystems, provide useful information to policy makers, and facilitate scientific research. These include: 1) the establishment of a national center for ecological synthesis that focuses on analyzing existing information; 2) the establishment of an ecological observatory system that collects new information, integrates remote sensing products, and produces near real-time products on key ecological variables; and 3) the creation of new platforms for dialog and action within existing scientific and policy groups.
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After more than 50-years of armed conflict, Colombia is now transitioning to a more stable social and political climate due to a series of peace agreements between the government and different armed groups. Consequences of these socio-economic and political changes on ecosystems are largely uncertain, but there is growing concern about derived increases in environmental degradation. ; After more than 50-years of armed conflict, Colombia is now transitioning to a more stable social and political climate due to a series of peace agreements between the government and different armed groups. Consequences of these socio-economic and political changes on ecosystems are largely uncertain, but there is growing concern about derived increases in environmental degradation.
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