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Social Class, Religiosity, and Vote Choice in Spain, 1979–2008
In: Political Choice Matters, S. 360-387
Social spending, partisan bias and vote choice. Evidence from the US
In: Electoral Studies, Band 29, Heft 1, S. 54-65
Social spending, partisan bias and vote choice. Evidence from the US
In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 29, Heft 1, S. 54-66
ISSN: 0261-3794
Looking for Affective Polarisation in Spain: PSOE and Podemos from Conflict to Coalition
In: South European society & politics, Band 25, Heft 3-4, S. 351-379
ISSN: 1743-9612
Attributing responsibility in devolved contexts. Experimental evidence from the UK
In: Electoral Studies, Band 59, S. 39-48
Ballot structure and satisfaction with democracy
This article analyses the influence of ballot structure over satisfaction with democracy. In line with previous literature, we hypothesize that some ballot structures - such as preferential ballots - generate more satisfaction with democracy than closed ones. Yet, we expect these differences to be especially relevant among the more knowledgeable electorate, since any open ballot structure requires more sophisticated voters. Using CSES surveys, our results do not show a clear and simple relation between ballot openness and satisfaction with democracy as some previous research seems to suggest. Our findings rather suggest a more limited effect. Preferential ballots and open lists are the only ballot structures that generate more satisfaction, when compared to most of the remaining ballot structures. Yet, this relation is restricted only among the more knowledgeable electorate. The liberty of choice that ballot structure offers only concerns a reduced portion of the electorate, namely the more politically sophisticated one.
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Explaining the electoral effects of public investments: The case of the expansion of the underground in Madrid, 1995-2007
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 49, Heft 3, S. 393-418
ISSN: 0304-4130
El liderazgo de Blair y Aznar hacia el centro político
In: Revista de estudios políticos, Heft 142, S. 69-104
ISSN: 0048-7694
Attributing responsibility in devolved contexts. Experimental evidence from the UK
In devolved contexts, people may get it wrong in their responsibility assignments because they are unsure about who does what or because they filter their attributions of credit and blame through their political lenses. This paper theorises about these two mechanisms and tests the role of cognitive bias in moderating responsibility judgements in multilevel systems. Using a survey experiment on responsibility attribution for the NHS outcomes in Scotland and Wales, results show that partisanship is the strongest bias of responsibility assignments between regional and central authorities. Yet national identity also operates as cognitive bias, a role that so far has been theoretically and empirically overlooked in the literature. The empirical findings point to the role of partisanship and identity as cognitive guides to make responsibility judgements in complex institutional setting, such as the one that emerges from increasing devolution in the United Kingdom.
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The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017
In: European political science review: EPSR, Band 12, Heft 2, S. 133-153
ISSN: 1755-7747
AbstractRepresentative democracies are supposed to be uniquely virtuous in that they ensure that public preferences drive public policy. Dynamic representation is the outcome of a recurring interaction between electorate and parties that can be observed at the macro level. Preferences can shape government policy via two possible mechanisms. 'Policy accomodation' suggests that governments respond directly to the electorate's preferences. 'Electoral turnover', on the other hand, assumes that preferences shape policy indirectly. Parties pursue their ideological goals, and public preferences respond 'thermostatically' by moving in the opposite direction to policy. This causes voters to switch votes and eventually leads to a turnover of power from one 'side' to 'the other'. In this paper, we estimate preferences for government activity ('the policy mood') in Spain between 1978 and 2017. We show that mood responds 'thermostatically' to policy. Variations in mood are associated with support for parties. Policy is driven by party control but is not thermostatically responsive to mood. It appears that in Spain – like Britain – dynamic representation can only be achieved by electoral turnover. We consider the implications of this for our understanding of how representation works.
Explaining the electoral effects of public investments: The case of the expansion of the underground in Madrid, 1995–2007
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 49, Heft 3, S. 393-417
ISSN: 1475-6765
AbstractAccording to the literature, governments have strong incentives to use the public budget tactically in order to either obtain the electoral support of new voters or strengthen the loyalty of their traditional supporters. Yet vote‐seeking strategies only become rational when voters follow their self‐interest and reward governments when their constituency benefits from public transfers. The literature has focused on the governments' incentives, largely ignoring the importance of knowing whether the electorate is responsive to public investments. This study tests empirically whether incumbents strategically use public investments to gather more electoral support; and whether voters take these investments into account at the polls. These two questions are pursued simultaneously by using as a case study the expansion of the underground network in Madrid, Spain. Only a little evidence is found to support the idea that regional governments constructed new metro stations in neighbourhoods where they had more to gain electorally. Also, the inauguration timing strictly followed the electoral cycle, something that indicates a strategic calculus on the part of the incumbent. However, the models are also consistent with the idea that the government's investments were primarily driven by motives of efficiency. Indeed, although governments are tempted to follow vote‐seeking strategies, they are also aware that they cannot deviate too much from an efficiency‐based allocation of public resources. From the perspective of the voters, robust evidence has been found to show that regional voters rewarded this policy at the neighbourhood level. Neighbourhoods that received new metro stations voted in higher numbers for the incumbent than those quarters without new investments. All in all, these findings may have some implications for normative democratic theory.
How do voters vote when they have no ideology?: evidence from Spain
In: Estudios / Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, 227
World Affairs Online
Nationalism and the Labour Party: differential voting in Scotland and Wales since 1997
In: Estudios / Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, 213
World Affairs Online
La financiación autonómica: claves para comprender un (interminable) debate
In: España
In: Política y sociedad