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Despite 5G still being embryonic in its development, there is already a quest for evidence to support decision-making in government and industry. Although there is still considerable technological, economic and behavioural uncertainty, exploration of how the potential rollout may take place both spatially and temporally is required for effective policy formulation. Consequently, the cost, coverage and rollout implications of 5G networks across Britain are explored by extrapolating 4G LTE and LTE-Advanced characteristics for the period 2020-2030. We focus on ubiquitous ultrafast broadband of 50 Mbps and test the impact of annual capital intensity, infrastructure sharing and reducing the end-user speed in rural areas to either 10 or 30 Mbps. For the business-as-usual scenario we find that 90% of the population is covered with 5G by 2027, but coverage is unlikely to reach the final 10% due to exponentially increasing costs. Moreover, varying annual capital intensity or deploying a shared small cell network can greatly influence the time taken to reach the 90% threshold, with these changes mostly benefiting rural areas. Importantly, simply by integrating new and existing spectrum, a network capable of achieving 10 Mbps per rural user is possible, which is comparable to the UK's current fixed broadband Universal Service Obligation. We contribute to the literature by quantifying the effectiveness of the spatial and temporal rollout of 5G under different policy options. ; This work was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council programme grant entitled Multi-scale InfraSTRucture systems AnaLytics (EP/N017064/1). Modest funding was provided by the National Infrastructure Commission for the production of the original report to cover travel and writing costs.

Despite the growing trend towards the use of big data methodologies, the application of such techniques to inform telecommunications policy is still relatively limited. Although the deployment of mobile broadband networks is primarily driven by market forces, policy-makers and governments play an important role, particularly with regards to spectrum allocation and regulation. However, decision-makers usually lack data-driven insights to guide these processes. In this paper we propose a methodology to (i) infer the state of connectivity infrastructure and (ii) understand how Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) have combined spectrum resources and network densification to deploy 4G services. The methodology draws on crowdsourced data from a mobile app, including received signal power (RSRP) and received signal quality (RSRQ). Using UK data from 2017, we apply this method to Greater London to illustrate the capabilities of the framework. The results suggest that mobile broadband networks are only capacity-constrained in dense urban areas with MNOs adopting different strategies to deal with network congestion. MNO1 and MNO3 rely on larger spectrum portfolios, while MNO2 and MNO4 depend more on network densification. Interestingly, MNOs sharing the same capacity-expansion strategy do not necessarily share sites nor have spectrum on similar frequencies. We also find that in suburban areas mobile networks are still primarily coverage-constrained, where data suggests MNOs have favoured lower frequency spectrum, while avoiding the deployment of higher frequencies for cost reasons. The implications of these findings are discussed with regard to the roll-out of 5G networks.

The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international community to accelerate universal broadband, but the cost of meeting these objectives in the context of rapid technological change are not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies for the developing world to achieve universal 4G or 5G mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative low- and middle-income countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru, and Mexico), which provide the basis for aggregation to the global level. The cost of meeting UN Broadband Commission targets across the developing world is estimated at $1.6-1.7 trillion over the next decade, approximately 0.5-0.6% of annual gross domestic product for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by as much as three-quarters – to US$0.5 trillion (around 0.15 percent of annual gross domestic product) – and largely avoid the need for public subsidies. While 4G technology remains somewhat more cost-effective at the global scale, 5G NSA can sometimes prove less costly at the national level, particularly for countries with relatively low existing coverage of 4G technologies, and a tendency to be capacity-constrained in terms of demand. Providing that governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes that are conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.

Purpose: Public policy requires effective identification of the current and emerging issues being faced in industry and beyond. This paper identifies a set of key issues currently facing digital communications and reviews their relevance for the strategic provision of infrastructure, particularly within the UK context. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology focuses on taking a horizon scanning approach to obtaining current information from a range of authoritative decision-makers across industry, government and academia. After structuring the issues identified, these areas are explored by a multi-disciplinary research team covering engineering, economics and computer science. Findings: Five key categories were identified including (i) future demand, (ii) coverage and capacity, (iii) policy and regulation, (iv) economics and business models, and (v) technology. The results are reported for both fixed and wireless networks. Shared issues affecting the wider digital ecosystem are also identified including Brexit, connecting remote areas, and the degree to which the economics of infrastructure allows for building multiple overlapping infrastructures. We find that future demand uncertainty is one of the major issues affecting the digital communications sector driven by rigid willingness-to-pay, weak revenue and an increasing shift from fixed to wireless technologies. Policy must create the market conditions that encourage the entry of new competitors with innovative thinking and disruptive business models. Research limitations/implications: A limitation of the analysis is that it is quite UK-focused, hence further research could broaden this analysis to assessing issues at a continental or global scale. Practical implications: Social implications: Originality/value: The value of this paper originates from the breadth of the expert elicitation exercise carried out to gather the initial set of issues, followed by the analysis of this data by a multi-disciplinary team of researchers. The results direct a future research agenda, as many issues are indicative of a lack of existing evidence to support effective decision-making.