Suchergebnisse

This article is an attempt at a systematic account of decision making under greater uncertainty than what traditional, mathematically oriented decision theory can cope with. Four components of great uncertainty are distinguished: (1) the identity of the options is not well determined (uncertainty of demarcation) ; (2) the consequences of at least some option are unknown (uncertainty of consequences); (3) it is not clear whether information obtained from others, such as experts, can be relied on (uncertainty of reliance); and (4) the values relevant for the decision are not determined with sufficient precision (uncertainty of values). Some possible strategy types are proposed for each of these components. Decisions related to environmental issues are used to illustrate the proposals.

Occupational exposures of pregnant workers can give rise to foetal damage. Two major types of strategies against detrimental effects on the foetus are described: differentiated protection that reduces only the exposure of pregnant workers (or only of female workers) and unified protection that reduces the exposure of all workers to a level that is sufficiently low to protect against detrimental effects on the foetus. The former strategy is shown to be inefficient, as it does not provide the desired protection. Protection only of pregnant workers is insufficient since protection is needed early in pregnancy when it is not known, and in the case of substances that are accumulated in the woman's body even prior to conception. Protection of all women is also insufficient to protect the foetus since evidence indicates that preconception exposure of the father can also give rise to malformations. Furthermore, differentiated protection that requires more costly protective measures for women tends to aggravate the already prevalent discrimination of women on the labour market. It is therefore concluded that unified protection is the only efficient and non-discriminatory strategy against foetal damage.