International audience ; Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.
International audience ; Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.
International audience ; Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.
International audience ; Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.
European Research Council and EU, Grant/Award Number: AdG‐250189, PoC‐727440 and ERC‐SyG‐2013‐610028; Natural Environmental Research Council, Grant/Award Number: NE/L002531/1; National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: DEB‐1237733, DEB‐1456729, 9714103, 0632263, 0856516, 1432277, DEB‐9705814, BSR‐8811902, DEB 9411973, DEB 0080538, DEB 0218039, DEB 0620910, DEB 0963447, DEB‐1546686, DEB‐129764, OCE 95‐21184, OCE‐ 0099226, OCE 03‐52343, OCE‐0623874, OCE‐1031061, OCE‐1336206 and DEB‐1354563; National Science Foundation (LTER) , Grant/Award Number: DEB‐1235828, DEB‐1440297, DBI‐0620409, DEB‐9910514, DEB‐1237517, OCE‐0417412, OCE‐1026851, OCE‐1236905, OCE‐1637396, DEB 1440409, DEB‐0832652, DEB‐0936498, DEB‐0620652, DEB‐1234162 and DEB‐0823293; Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Grant/Award Number: POPH/FSE SFRH/BD/90469/2012, SFRH/BD/84030/2012, PTDC/BIA‐BIC/111184/2009; SFRH/BD/80488/2011 and PD/BD/52597/2014; Ciência sem Fronteiras/CAPES, Grant/Award Number: 1091/13‐1; Instituto Milenio de Oceanografía, Grant/Award Number: IC120019; ARC Centre of Excellence, Grant/Award Number: CE0561432; NSERC Canada; CONICYT/FONDECYT, Grant/Award Number: 1160026, ICM PO5‐002, CONICYT/FONDECYT, 11110351, 1151094, 1070808 and 1130511; RSF, Grant/Award Number: 14‐50‐00029; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Grant/Award Number: GBMF4563; Catalan Government; Marie Curie Individual Fellowship, Grant/Award Number: QLK5‐CT2002‐51518 and MERG‐CT‐2004‐022065; CNPq, Grant/Award Number: 306170/2015‐9, 475434/2010‐2, 403809/2012‐6 and 561897/2010; FAPESP (São Paulo Research Foundation), Grant/Award Number: 2015/10714‐6, 2015/06743‐0, 2008/10049‐9, 2013/50714‐0 and 1999/09635‐0 e 2013/50718‐5; EU CLIMOOR, Grant/Award Number: ENV4‐CT97‐0694; VULCAN, Grant/Award Number: EVK2‐CT‐2000‐00094; Spanish, Grant/Award Number: REN2000‐0278/CCI, REN2001‐003/GLO and CGL2016‐79835‐P; Catalan, Grant/Award Number: AGAUR SGR‐2014‐453 and SGR‐2017‐1005; DFG, Grant/Award Number: 120/10‐2; Polar Continental Shelf Program; CENPES – PETROBRAS; FAPERJ, Grant/Award Number: E‐26/110.114/2013; German Academic Exchange Service; sDiv; iDiv; New Zealand Department of Conservation; Wellcome Trust, Grant/Award Number: 105621/Z/14/Z; Smithsonian Atherton Seidell Fund; Botanic Gardens and Parks Authority; Research Council of Norway; Conselleria de Innovació, Hisenda i Economia; Yukon Government Herschel Island‐Qikiqtaruk Territorial Park; UK Natural Environment Research Council ShrubTundra Grant, Grant/Award Number: NE/M016323/1; IPY; Memorial University; ArcticNet. DOI:10.13039/50110000027. Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research in the Tropics NWO, grant W84‐194. Ciências sem Fronteiras and Coordenação de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES, Brazil), Grant/Award Number: 1091/13‐1. National Science foundation (LTER), Award Number: OCE‐9982105, OCE‐0620276, OCE‐1232779. FCT ‐ SFRH / BPD / 82259 / 2011. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/State Wildlife federal grant number T‐15. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CE140100020). Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT110100609. M.B., A.J., K.P., J.S. received financial support from internal funds of University of Lódź. NSF DEB 1353139. Catalan Government fellowships (DURSI): 1998FI‐00596, 2001BEAI200208, MECD Post‐doctoral fellowship EX2002‐0022. National Science Foundation Award OPP‐1440435. FONDECYT 1141037 and FONDAP 15150003 (IDEAL). CNPq Grant 306595‐2014‐1 ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF