THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO 1)DISTINGUISH BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL AND SYSTEMIC COMPONENTS OF TURNOUT AND (2) TO ATTEMPT TO PARTITION,THE VARIATION IN TURNOUT BETWEEN THE COMPONENTS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RESEARCH, THIS STUDY USED BOTH SURVEY AND AGGREGATE DATA TO DECOMPOSE THE VARIATION IN TURNOUT AMONG THE STATES INTO FIRST TWO COMPONENTS- INDIVIDUAL AND SYSTEMIC, THEN POLITICAL AND LEGAL.
RESPONSIBILITY ANALYSTS AND COMMENTATORS HAVE LONG REGARDED MIDTERM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS AS AN INTERIM EVALUATION OF THE PRESIDENT. RECENT RESEARCH HAS EMPHASIZED THE EFFECT OF THE INDIVIDUAL QUALITIES OF CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES ON THE VOT. BOTH FACTORS CONTRIBUTED TO THE 1982 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE. HOWEVER, THE RELATIVE SUCCESS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN 1982 WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE UNWILLINGNES OF A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTORATE TO ATTRIBUTE THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS TO THE ADMINISTRATION. THIS ATTRIBUTION FACTOR, IMPLICITLY IGNORED IN MOST ANALYSES OF THE EFFECT OF THE ECONOMY ON VOTE CHOICES, IS EXAMINED HERE.
METHODS OF SELECTING AMERICAN PRESIDENTS HAVE GREATLY CHANGED IN THE LAST DECADE ONE CHANGE IS IN THE WAY DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN. TRADITIONAL THE PARTY ORIGANIZATION AND ITS STATE AND LOCAL LEADERS PLAYED MAJOR ROLES WITH THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF DELEGATES CHOSEN BY CONVENTION CAUCUSES, OR COMMITTEES. TODAY THE VAST MAJORITY ARE SELECTED THROUGH ELECTION IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES WHILE THERE ARE GOOD REASONS TO BELIEVE, A PRIORI, THAT MANY RECENT CHANGES IN THE LONG AND PROCESS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SELECTION ARE DUE TO GREATER USE OF THE PRIMARY METHOD OF DELEGATE SELECTION, IT IS HARD TO FIND SUPPORTING DATA. STILL, IT CAN BE SHOWN THAT UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS, DELEGATES CHOSEN BY ORGANIZATIONALLY CONTROLLED METHODS DO APPEAR TO BE LESS IDEOLOGICAL THAN THOSE WHO ARE ELECTED THROUGH FREE PRIMARIES. BUT THE EFFECT IS NEITHER STRONG NOR CONSISTENT. MORE IMPORTANT THAN ANY INSTITUTIONAL OR STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN SHAPING THE RISE OF THE "NEW PRESIDENTIAL ELITE" HAS BEEN THE EMERGENCE OF INSURGENT POLITICS
