Suchergebnisse

THE DEBATE OVER THE RELATIVE MERITS OF DIRECTIONAL AND PROLIXITY MODELS AS THEORIES OF CANDIDATE EVALUATION HAS TURNED LARGELY ON THE CRITERION OF PREDICTIVENESS. THIS ARTICLE ADDS TO THE PREDICTIVE RECORD FOR FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES IN 1988 BUT ALSO FOCUSES ON THE CRITERION OF VERISIMILITUDE. BY EXAMINING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN MODEL CHOICE AND MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUE THE AUTHOR SHOWS THAT THE PROXIMITY MODEL BASED ON IDIOSYNCRATIC VOTER PERCEPTIONS OF CANDIDATE ISSUE POSITIONS PRODUCES A MORE PLAUSIBLE REPRESENTATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF ISSUE-BASED CANDIDATE PREFERENCES OF THE VOTERS THAN THE DIRECTIONAL MODEL BASED ON NATIONAL MEAN PERCEPTIONS OF CANDIDATE ISSUE POSITIONS.

R. Aron-in his works on ideological criticism, the philosophy of history, sociol, internat'l pol, & the internal pol of France-has nowhere set out a systematic pol'al theory, though theoretical elements appear, esp in his works on ideological criticism & the sociol of indust'al societies. 4 themes are considered: indust'zation, equality, liberty, & democracy. Aron draws his principles from liberalism, a vital critical spirit; from conservatism, the appreciation of historic cultures; from socialism, the belief that the pursuit of wealth should be directed towards soc utility. This is similar to 19th-cent English liberalism, but there are certain special characteristics of Aron: his close concern with indust'al society, his sociol'al rigor, & his simultaneous emphasis on both the narrowness & the breadth of the margin of choices before man. Most important of all, Aron asserts the legitimacy of the normative content of pol'al thought. He may well produce the 1st theory of pol adapted to the indust'al age. IPSA.

THE EFFECTS OF ELITE CIRCULATION ON ATTITUDINAL CHANGE IN THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY BETWEEN 1967 AND 1978 ARE EXAMINED USING INTERVIEW DATA TO ESTIMATE AGGREGATE PARTY CHANGE, WHICH IS DECOMPOSED INTO CHANGE DUE TO CONVERSION OF OLD ELITES AND CHANGE DUE TO REPLACEMENT OF OLD ELITES BY NEW ONES. A TYPOLOGY OF NET PARTY CHANGE IS CONSTRUCTED, AND THE DEGREE OF STABILITY OF ELITE OPINION IS INVESTIGATED AT THE DISTRICT LEVEL. IT IS FOUND THAT ELITE CIRCULATION CAN BE A FORCE FOR ORGANIZATIONAL CONTINUITY AS WELL AS FOR ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE, AND THAT THERE IS STABILITY OF ELITE OPINION AT THE DISTRICT LEVEL ONLY ON ISSUES PERTAINING TO TRADITIONAL LOCAL PARTY ORIENTATIONS OR CONSTANT DISTRICT INTERESTS.

THIS PAPER USES THE CONCEPT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ALIENATION AND ELECTION PARTICIPATION TO DISCUSS FRENCH VOTING BEHAVIOR. EVIDENCE IS PRESENTED IN SUPPORT OF THREE PROPOSITIONS. (1) PARTICIPATION AT THE SECOND BALLOT IN FRANCE IN FORCED-CHOICE SITUATIONS CAN BE ACCOUNTED FOR BY PARTISAN ATTITUDES (AS MEASURED BY THERMOMETER SCORES) BUT NOT BY PERCEPTIONS OF PARTISAN LOCATIONS ON THE LEFT-RIGHT DIMENSION; (2) THE PARTISAN CHOICES OF THE VOTERS IN SUCH SITUATIONS CAN BE BETTER EXPLAINED BY PARTISAN ATTITUDES THAN BY LEFT-RIGHT PERCEPTIONS; AND (3) DELIVERATE ABSTAINERS IN SUCH SITUATIONS RESEMBLE BALLOT SPOILERS, WHILE CHRONIC ABSTENTION AND RANDOM ABSTENTION ARE LONG-TERM PHENOMENA.

Uses the design framework of Miller and Stokes (1963) to examine relationships and changes between constituency's attitude and representative's perception of constituency's attitude. Joins these 2 analyses together by exploring the role of candidate perceptions of district left--right location in affecting the candidates's perception of their districts' position on other issues. (SJK)

Focuses on how the same protest movement can be interpreted in different ways and the attitudinal transformations experienced by participants and non-participants. Discusses models and then looks at the empirical evidence from before and after the upheavals of 1968. Demonstrates that an analysis based on post-protest data alone can be very misleading. (SJK)