Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation has changed over time in Latin America.
Design/methodology/approach The authors use a stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) as proposed by Chan (2017).
Findings Considering inflation series for the last two decades, we report evidences of high uncertainty from 1996 to early 2000s. Moreover, despite being positive throughout the sample, the overall relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation has changed over the years in Latin America, underscoring the importance of our time-varying specification.
Practical/implication There are evidences of a greater volatile inflation behavior in the beginning of the sample period in comparison to the last few years. Overall, the considered Latin American economies seem to have endured relatively well the external adverse shocks from the 2008 global financial crisis.
Originality/value The use of an SVM model with TVP in order to assess the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is new to the Latin America literature.
Resumo O objetivo do presente trabalho é estimar a NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) para o Brasil, utilizando um modelo bivariado de componentes não observados conforme proposto por Chan, Koop e Potter (2015), que difere da literatura existente por considerar passeios aleatórios restritos para as variáveis não observadas. As variáveis latentes do modelo são a NAIRU, tendência inflacionária, persistência da inflação e inclinação da Curva de Phillips. Os resultados obtidos apontam para uma tendência de queda da NAIRU, que tem sido revertida no período recente. Além disso, o hiato do desemprego foi predominantemente positivo até 2010, fato consistente com a diminuição da inflação e tem sido predominantemente negativo no período recente, o que implica em aumento da inflação. Tal comportamento é consistente com a trajetória observada da inflação no período. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho contribui com a literatura empírica a respeito da NAIRU no Brasil, fornecendo novas estimativas para o período recente. Dada a natureza não observável dessa variável, o aumento da literatura pode aumentar o grau de confiabilidade dessas estimativas.
PurposeThis paper analyzes the potential presence of time-varying asymmetries in the preference parameters of the Central Bank of Brazil during the inflation targeting regime.Design/methodology/approachGiven the econometric issues inherent to classical time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions, a Bayesian estimation procedure is implemented in order to provide more robust parameter estimates. A stochastic volatility specification is also included to take into account the potential presence of conditional heteroskedasticity.FindingsThe obtained results show that the reduced form and structural parameters were not constant during the period considered. Moreover, the subsequent analysis of the preference parameters provided evidences of short periods in which asymmetry was an important feature to the conduction of monetary policy in Brazil. Yet, during most of the sample period, the loss function was considered to be symmetrical.Originality/valueThis paper aims to contribute to the rather scarce monetary debate on time-varying central bank preferences. The study of Lopes and Aragón (2014) is, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the only study for Brazil considering specifically TVPs. The authors applied Kalman filter estimation to data from 2000:M1 to 2011:M12. Despite the similar structure of TVPs, the present paper extends the latter study by controlling for stochastic volatility. Ignoring conditional heteroskedasticity might lead to spurious movements in time-varying variables and inaccurate inference (Hamilton, 2010). Thus, the stochastic volatility specification is included to take this issue into account. The authors follow the theoretical scheme put forward by Surico (2007) and Aragón and Portugal (2010), in which the economy is modeled from a New Keynesian perspective and the central bank loss function is assumed to be asymmetric regarding the responses to inflation and output deviations from their targets. On the empirical side, the authors propose a TVP univariate regression with stochastic volatility for the Brazilian reduced-form reaction function, following closely the Bayesian econometric procedure developed by Nakajima (2011). Given the nonlinear non-Gaussian nature of the TVP regression with stochastic volatility, the choice of a nonlinear Bayesian approach using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is justified due to the intractability of the associated likelihood function (Primiceri, 2005). Finally, based on the theoretical model specification, the authors intend to recover the central bank preference parameters as to further evaluate the degree of asymmetry and its potential time-variation under the inflation targeting regime.
