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The conservative challenge of the Reagan administration has not produced a full‐scale reversal of the liberal policies and social programs developed by earlier administrations and seems unlikely to do so now. Nevertheless, the continuities in American social and political history, the changed economic and fiscal circumstances of the current era, and growing public appreciation of the limits of federal action and of institutional capabilities are likely to effect a reduction in the level of federal spending for social programs in the foreseeable future and force the states to assume larger fiscal and programmatic roles. Implications for future employment and training policies include continued decentralization, a shift in focus away from training new entrants to retraining mid‐career workers, and greater emphasis on meeting cost‐effectiveness tests as program goals seek to promote economic efficiency rather than social objectives.

ABSTRACTDuring the 1960s and early 1970s, strong economic growth and highly expansionary income security policies led to considerable progress for the entire American population with respect to major income security goals. However, in the last fifteen years much of this progress has been either arrested or reversed, particularly for the non-aged, as economic growth slowed and income security policies ceased to expand and, in some cases, contracted. This retrenchment was the inevitable consequence of numerous phenomena which preceded, and were reinforced by the Reagan era. American income security policies are not likely to contract generally in the future, nor to resume expanding in a direction characteristic of many Western European welfare states. Rather, the prospects are for slow economic growth, higher targetting of programs by income in some areas, and marginal expansions requiring minimal new commitments of public resources in others. Major income security problems, especially among the lower income population, will remain.

Though strong economic growth & highly expansionary income security policies led to considerable progress for the entire US population during the 1960s & early 1970s, much of this progress has been either arrested or reversed over the past fifteen years, particularly for the non-aged. This retrenchment was the inevitable result of numerous phenomena that preceded, & were reinforced by, the Reagan administration. Some consequences of changes in federal income security policies for the achievement of income security goals are investigated, coupled with economic & demographic trends, based on official statistics & secondary data. Though policies are neither likely to contract generally nor resume expanding in a direction characteristic of many Western European welfare states, major income security problems will remain, particularly among the Lcs. The relevance of the future of US policies to other Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development countries is addressed. 6 Tables, 3 Figures, 23 References. Modified HA

Effectiveness of major public transfer programs under changing patterns of federal expenditures since the 1960s.

The paper describes the current fiscal problems of the United States showing that without significant changes in revenue and spending policies, the country is headed for a sovereign debt crisis similar to that afflicting countries in Southern Europe. Numerous committees and commissions have offered policy options that would stabilize the debt–GDP ratio in the long run. The proposals of the President's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and the Bipartisan Policy Center's Deficit Reduction Task Force are described in detail. Elected politicians have not been enthusiastic about the work of these bodies. Only the House has passed a budget that would stabilize the debt and that proposal is analyzed as is the president's response. The paper goes on to describe the Budget Control Act that was passed after the debt limit debate in the summer of 2011.