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AbstractIn Grossman‐Helpman's (1994) canonical "Protection for Sale" (PFS) model, political competition among industry lobbies is driven purely by their interests as consumers. This paper introduces demand linkages and oligopolistic competition into the PFS framework to address the rivalry among lobbies stemming from product substitutability. It shows that increased substitutability weakens the interest groups' incentives to lobby and reduces tariff distortions. This may explain why empirical tests of PFS find surprisingly little impact of lobbies on the government's trade policy decision. The paper also analyzes endogenous lobby formation, suggesting that demand linkages may adversely affect the industry decision to organize.

Current debate on the energy security in the EU often stresses the EU dependency on gas imports from Russia. However, Russia is no less dependent on the EU – more than half of its gas exports goes to Europe. The purpose of this paper is to characterize this mutual dependency through an index-based approach, and to discuss how the development of gas markets may affect such dependency. We suggest a unified framework to assess the security of gas supply for the EU and the security of gas demand for Russia, and construct dependency indexes for both parties. Our approach accounts not only for the traditional import/export dependency measures but also for the balance of power between Russia and the EU. The proposed methodology is then used to address the evolution of the EU-Russia gas relationship in the view of gas market's developments. New gas pipelines projects (e.g., South Stream, Nabucco) and increasing use of liquefied natural gas are all likely to impact both the demand side and the supply side of the EU-Russia gas trade, and affect mutual gas dependency between the EU and Russia.

This paper proposes a Transit Risk Index (TRI) designed to assess the riskiness of pipeline gas imports and to study the effect of introducing new gas routes. TRI controls for gas dependency, transit route diversification, political risks of transit, pipeline rupture probability, and the balance of power between supplying and consuming countries along the transit route. Evaluating TRI for the EU-Russia gas trade, we show that the introduction of the Nord Stream pipeline would further widen already large disparities in gas risk exposure across the EU Member States. The gas risk exposure of the Member States served by Nord Stream would decline. In contrast, EU countries not connected to Nord Stream, but sharing other Russian gas transit routes with the Nord Stream countries, would face greater gas risk exposure. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the design of the common energy policy in the EU.

In many organizations, decisions are taken by unanimity giving each member veto power. We analyze a model of an organization in which members with heterogenous productivity privately contribute to a common good. Under unanimity, the least efficient member imposes her preferred effort choice on the entire organization. In the presence of externalities and an incomplete charter, the threat of forming an inner organization can undermine the veto power of the less efficient members and coerce them to exert more effort. We also identify the conditions under which the threat of forming an inner organization is executed. Finally, we show that majority rules effectively prevent the emergence of inner organizations.

Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that petroleum rents are associated with increases in hidden wealth, but only when political institutions are very weak. We also discern an interesting interaction with political risk: events such as elections and domestic conflict are preceded by increases in hidden wealth when political institutions are weak, which is consistent with a view of autocratic rulers as forward-looking rent-seekers whose behavior is constrained by political checks and balances.

Cet article propose une vision du marché du travail russe permettant d'expliquer la coexistence d'éléments d'inertie et de flexibilité par un phénomène de segmentation. Plaçant l'incertitude au cœur des décisions des firmes et des employés, il montre que les travailleurs, qui ont tous une aversion pour le risque, peuvent adopter des comportements différenciés selon leur productivité relative. Certains, bénéficiant de perspectives favorables, adoptent un comportement mobile et nouent des contrats prévoyant de les rémunérer en fonction de leur productivité. D'autres, jouissant d'opportunités moins favorables, acceptent une réduction de leur rémunération réelle en échange de la sécurité de l'emploi et de l'accès aux actifs sociaux de la firme. Notre cadre d'analyse permet de proposer une interprétation des arriérés de salaire. Ces derniers constitueraient un élément du contrat d'assurance implicite noué entre l'entreprise et certains travailleurs. Nous vérifions les prévisions du modèle à l'aide d'une base de données comprenant 13 628 entreprises russes, observées de 1992 à 1997.