Suchergebnisse

Les guerres civiles constituent aujourd'hui la forme la plus fréquente et la plus meurtrière de conflit armé. La majorité de ces conflits sont « ethniques » dans le sens où ils opposent des belligérants issus de groupes ethniques distincts. Cet article passe en revue la littérature sur les causes des conflits ethniques : il fournit un aperçu sur les mesures quantitatives communément employées, présente quelques faits centraux sur la distribution de ces conflits, puis discute six théories du conflit ethnique en les confrontant de façon systématique aux résultats de la recherche empirique. Il ressort de cette synthèse que les conflits ethniques sont rares en termes absolus (si on les rapporte au nombre de groupes ethniques qui cohabitent dans chaque État) mais fréquents en termes relatifs (si on les compare aux guerres civiles non ethniques), et qu'ils s'expliquent davantage par des facteurs d'ordre économique que par la persistance d'antagonismes historiques ou des divergences culturelles.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of political regime type on the onset of violent conflicts. Using statistical analysis on a dataset that covers the period from 1946 to 2008, I investigate the effects of regime type on civil war, military coups, physical integrity rights violations, and the initiation of militarized interstate disputes. What foremost predicts instances of violent conflict is the extent to which regimes rely on binding, predictable rules regarding the selection of the chief executive: thus, I find that monarchies and democracies are more stable and peaceful than any other regime. Among regimes that lack such rules, I find that military dictatorships experience coups more frequently than party regimes, but this is the only outcome that can be clearly attributed to authoritarian regime type: other observed differences either stem from the mutual relationships between different manifestations of political violence, or from the security environment in which such regimes emerge. To sum up, was seems to explain political regimes' propensity to experience or use violence is the extent to which they are institutionalized, and the extent to which leaders are secure in office.

Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on biodiversity due to its long-lasting economic and social consequences. Yet, much less is known about the amount of biodiversity loss directly resulting from the use of military technology. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20st century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding on the Falkland Islands over the period 1963-1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' population. To take better account of time-varying confounders, we complement this analysis using a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies and find similar results. .

Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on biodiversity due to its long-lasting economic and social consequences. Yet, much less is known about the amount of biodiversity loss directly resulting from the use of military technology. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20st century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding on the Falkland Islands over the period 1963-1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' population. To take better account of time-varying confounders, we complement this analysis using a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies and find similar results. .

Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on biodiversity due to its long-lasting economic and social consequences. Yet, much less is known about the amount of biodiversity loss directly resulting from the use of military technology. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20st century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding on the Falkland Islands over the period 1963-1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' population. To take better account of time-varying confounders, we complement this analysis using a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies and find similar results. .

Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on biodiversity due to its long-lasting economic and social consequences. Yet, much less is known about the amount of biodiversity loss directly resulting from the use of military technology. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20st century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding on the Falkland Islands over the period 1963-1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' population. To take better account of time-varying confounders, we complement this analysis using a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies and find similar results. .

ABSTRACTGerontocracy, in its narrowest sense, refers to political systems ruled by elderly people, whether de jure or de facto. Although formal gerontocratic rules are progressively disappearing, contemporary political systems are still governed by individuals who are significantly older than the mean voter. This article reviews existing explanations for the prevalence of gerontocracy. To summarize main findings, gerontocracy cannot be explained by the leadership qualities of older rulers: aging leaders do not perform better in office and voters seem to be aware of it. Instead, existing research suggests that gerontocracy can be explained by strategic considerations. In autocracies, the selectorate tends to choose aging leaders in order to reduce their expected tenure length. In democracies, voters are more likely to select experienced candidates, which they expect to be more effective at advancing the interests of their constituency: this premium put on experience mechanically lengthens political careers and increases the age of the average politician. Finally, older voters, which participate more in politics, tend to prefer older politicians, because they (correctly) expect them to better defend their own interests.

According to minimalist theories of democracy, the reason why civil conflicts are less frequent in democracies is that opposition parties can reasonably expect to win the next elections: they then prefer to wait than to rebel. In dictatorships, waiting until the dictator dies is generally much costlier. This waiting time, however, is considerably shortened when the dictator is old. Therefore, the risk of domestic conflict should decrease along with the age of autocratic leaders. Based on 160 countries from 1960 to 2008, our empirical analysis shows that the leader's age decreases the likelihood of violent rebellion in dictatorships, but not in democratic regimes.