Suchergebnisse

The onset of transition and transformation in the global energy landscape is disrupting the prevailing energy order,defined by the hydrocarbons. The power dynamics unfolded by global environmental concerns (Paris Agreement)and smart technology is changing the geopolitics by shifting the strategic leverage between energy producers andconsumers at various levels: globally, regionally and within the national boundaries. In this strategic shift, the Asianconsumers are emerging as critical players both as promoters and spoilers of global energy transition. Since they arethe largest consumer of fossil fuel, their compliance with Paris Agreement is going to be vital in meeting the targetsand time line. Thus IEA has rightly observed, "Energy developments in India transform the international energysystem, and, in turn, India will be increasingly exposed to changes in international markets."Clearly the Indian roadmap of energy transition is going to be influenced if not determined by its global commitmentto meet Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The government therefore has all reasons to scale upits targets and execution. However in meeting the targets, it has to address the issue of energy poverty as well. Thusthe roadmap has to meet the convergence of minimizing carbon emission meeting the growing energy needs of thepoor. This calls for re defining the organizing principle of India's energy policy. Besides ensuring supply security ataggregate level it demands meeting the objectives of energy justice. The transition thus involves not only hugefinancing (estimated to be 2.5 trillion dollar) and massive technological push but the compatible institutionalmechanism and effective system of governance also. Indian energy roadmap has to recalibrate global energyengagement beyond the search of hydrocarbons in consonance with the imperatives of energy transition defined byglobal and local context.

Iran is set to join the global energy market with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in July 2015. However, the new geography of energy is changing the power dynamics in global energy market taking away the leverage from the traditionally dominant Middle East. Moreover, OPEC envisages severe loss to its share in the global energy market by 2020 and the intra-regional conflicts are further fuelling uncertainties and radicalization. Nevertheless, hydrocarbon will continue to be the principal component of global energy mix and Iran, which has the fourth largest reserves of oil and the second largest deposits of natural gas, will remain an important player but it will require a huge investment and technological support from the external suppliers to monetize its energy assets. Thus, a new script is going to be framed, that of energy-geopolitics equation, but, ironically, Iran will not be its lead author.

The continuation of the uprising in the Arab world beyond the third year, despite a regime change, can be explained by locating it within the structural crisis of a neoliberal regime. The objective conditions of exclusion created a unique sense of power in being powerless, making it possible for diverse stakeholders to define a collective cause. This has been further reinforced by a sense of community fostered by electronic communication across the countries of the region and beyond. Thus, the street protests have garnered unprecedented support, giving it a global dimension. Ironically, the solidarity of the collective cause lost its cohesion in transforming itself into an institution. The attempt to construct a sectarian polity is failing due to massive opposition. Clearly, any attempt to impose a framework that does not have a representative character and which does not reflect popular aspirations in terms of a holistic social contract is not going to be acceptable to the protestors. Thus, the boundaries of public protest are expanding and expressions are changing but the sentiments are the same; it continues to be a struggle for inclusion, social justice and dignity.

The base and superstructure of the present energy regime are becoming unsustainable. With billions joining the energy market, supplies have to expand exponentially. The expansion of energy supplies from new sources becomes the necessary condition for global energy security. The scale of expansion required to construct a new global energy mix can only be accomplished through a global approach. It is a global question because the concerned stakeholders are located in different regions consisting of different globalising economies. Increasing integration and interdependence among the energy suppliers and consumers, and the location of the energy industry in the globalising market, has necessitated the redefinition of energy security both at the conceptual and policy level. The future of energy security has to be defined in terms of global energy systems and regime. A global restructuring of energy system would inevitably assume global engagement, global partnership and global norms and institutions.