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The Ontology of Money : Institutions, Power and Collective Intentionality
__Abstract__ The aim of this thesis is to revisit the elementary questions about the nature and the existence of money proposing a comprehensive alternative to the textbook analysis of money as a medium of exchange.
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New tool for the spatio-temporal variation analysis of seismic parameters
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 9, Heft 3, S. 859-864
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. In this paper a new research tool called FastBEE (Fast Estimation of Expected Big Earthquake) is proposed, for the analysis of three basic seismic parameters, (the number of earthquakes N, b-value, and the seismic energy released in the form logE2/3), in order to examine their spatio-temporal variation behavior. The developed research tool is suited to analyze earthquake catalogs and it comprise new interactive visualization techniques for the exploration of the results. The tool was tested in several seismic active areas of the Hellenic territory and a case study of its applicability is presented. It is observed that the results of the seismicity parameters analysis show a clear temporal fluctuation, with respect to their mean values. Such a behavior can be interpreted as the result of the geodynamic process acting in the region. In several cases the observed significant changes can be related to strong earthquakes, so that they can be considered as precursor indicating the preparation stage for an impending strong earthquake activity.
Tsunami hazard in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea: a new tsunami catalogue
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 11, Heft 3, S. 945-963
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. Data on tsunamis occurring in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea from antiquity up to the present were updated, critically evaluated and compiled in the standard format developed since the 90's for the New European Tsunami Catalogue. Twenty nine events were examined but three of them, supposedly occurring in 557 AD, 815 AD and 1341 or 1343, were very likely falsely reported. Most of the remaining 26 events were generated in Crimea, offshore Bulgaria as well as offshore North Anatolia. For each of the 26 events examined, 22 events were classified as reliable ones receiving a score of 3 or 4 on a 4-grade reliability scale. Most of them were caused by earthquakes, such as the key event 544/545 of offshore Varna, but a few others were attributed either to aseismic earth slumps or to unknown causes. The tsunami intensity was estimated using the traditional 6-grade scale and the new 12-grade scale introduced by Papadopoulos and Imamura (2001). From 544/545 up to now, only two reliable events of high intensity K ≥ 7 have been reported, which very roughly indicates that the mean repeat time is ∼ 750 years. Five reliable tsunamis of moderate intensity 4 ≤ K < 7 have been observed from 1650 up to the present, which implies a recurrence of 72 years on the average. Although these calculations were based on a very small statistical sample of tsunami events, the repeat times found are consistent with the theoretical expectations from size-frequency relations. However, in the Black Sea there is no evidence of tsunamis of very high intensity (K ∼ 10) such as the AD 365, 1303 and 1956 ones associated with large earthquakes occurring along the Hellenic arc and trench, Greece, or the 1908 one in Messina strait, Italy. This observation, along with the relatively low tsunami frequency, indicates that the tsunami hazard in the Black Sea is low to moderate but not negligible. The tsunami hazard in the Azov Sea is very low because of the very low seismicity but also because of the shallow water prevailing there. In fact, only three possible tsunami events have been reported in the Azov Sea.
Strong foreshock signal preceding the L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw 6.3) of 6 April 2009
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 19-24
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. We used the earthquake catalogue of INGV extending from 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2009 to detect significant changes before and after the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila mainshock (Mw=6.3) in the seismicity rate, r (events/day), and in b-value. The statistical z-test and Utsu-test were applied to identify significant changes. From the beginning of 2006 up to the end of October 2008 the activity was relatively stable and remained in the state of background seismicity (r=1.14, b=1.09). From 28 October 2008 up to 26 March 2009, r increased significantly to 2.52 indicating weak foreshock sequence; the b-value did not changed significantly. The weak foreshock sequence was spatially distributed within the entire seismogenic area. In the last 10 days before the mainshock, strong foreshock signal became evident in space (dense epicenter concentration in the hanging-wall of the Paganica fault), in time (drastic increase of r to 21.70 events/day) and in size (b-value dropped significantly to 0.68). The significantly high seismicity rate and the low b-value in the entire foreshock sequence make a substantial difference from the background seismicity. Also, the b-value of the strong foreshock stage (last 10 days before mainshock) was significantly lower than that in the aftershock sequence. Our results indicate the important value of the foreshock sequences for the prediction of the mainshock.
Tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in the East Hellenic Arc and Trench system
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 7, Heft 1, S. 57-64
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. Data on tsunami phenomena occurring in the East Hellenic Arc and Trench system (HA-T) from antiquity up to the present have been updated, critically evaluated and compiled in the standard GITEC format developed in the last decade for the New European Tsunami Catalogue. New field observations are presented for the tsunamis of 9 February 1948 and 24 March 2002. From the 18 tsunamis reported eight are rather well-documented while another nine remain doubtful. The mean recurrence of strong tsunamis is likely equal to about 142 years. Most of the tsunamis documented are caused by strong earthquakes occurring in the area offshore Rhodes to the east or northeast of the island. However, there are large earthquakes near Rhodes that do not cause tsunamis, like the 1926 and 1957 ones, which is of particular importance for the tsunami hazard assessment.
Democratizing energy markets through flexibility-baseddemand response optimization services
Today, the energy system is largely driven from the perspective of suppliers and only a few consumers are able to track their energy use or actively participate in the market. The possibilities for larger commercial and industrial consumers have started to develop and active consumer engagement in Demand Response programmes is gaining traction, nevertheless this is not the case for residential consumers. While the participation of European residential and small commercial/industrial users, accounting for ca. 70% of final electricity consumption, there is still limited access from the end users in energy markets. Within this context, we present an end-to-end Automated Demand Response Optimization Framework, towards incorporating innovative and highly effective tools to enable dynamic VPPs formation which will further allow for energy customers and cooperatives to introduce themselves in energy markets. Optimization in the proposed framework applies to multiple levels. It spans local generation output, demand and storage flexibility, as well as the flexibility offered by EVs (in their dual role as demand and storage assets) to facilitate maximum RES integration into the grid, avoidance of curtailment and satisfaction of balancing and ancillary grid needs. The overall framework is tested in several demo sites in Europe and the preliminary results from this evaluation process are reported in this document.
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Geological identification of historical tsunamis in the Gulf of Corinth, Central Greece
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 11, Heft 7, S. 2029-2041
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. Geological identification of tsunami deposits is important for tsunami hazard studies, especially in areas where the historical data set is limited or absent. Evidence left by historical tsunamis in the coastal sedimentary record of the Gulf of Corinth was investigated by trenching and coring in Kirra on the north coast and Aliki on the south coast. The Gulf of Corinth has a documented tsunami history dating back to the 4th century BC. Comparison of the historical records and the results of stratigraphical, sedimentological and foraminiferal analyses show that extreme coastal flooding events are detectable in the coastal sequences. The geological record from Kirra shows four sand layers deposited by high-energy marine flooding events. The deposits identified show many similarities with tsunami deposits described elsewhere. The lower sand deposit (layer 4) was radiocarbon dated to 3020–2820 BC. Assuming an average sedimentation rate of 2.6 cm (100 yr)−1, the ages of the other three sand layers were estimated by extrapolation to the time windows 1200–1000 BC, AD 500–600 and AD 1400–1500. There are no historical tsunamis which correlate with layers 2 and 3. However, layer 1 may represent the major AD 1402 tsunami. Sand dykes penetrating from layer 1 into the overlying silts suggest soil liquefaction during an earthquake event, possibly the 1 August 1870 one. At Aliki, no clear stratigraphical evidence of tsunami flooding was found, but results from foraminiferal and dating analyses show that a sand layer was deposited about 180 years ago from a marine flooding event. This layer may be associated with the historical tsunami of 23 August 1817, which caused widespread destruction in the Aegion area. The work presented here supports the idea that geological methods can be used to extend tsunami history far beyond the historical record. Although the tsunami database obtained will be incomplete and biased towards larger events, it will still be useful for extreme event statistical approaches.
Time independent seismic hazard analysis of Greece deduced from Bayesian statistics
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 3, Heft 1/2, S. 129-134
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. A Bayesian statistics approach is applied in the seismogenic sources of Greece and the surrounding area in order to assess seismic hazard, assuming that the earthquake occurrence follows the Poisson process. The Bayesian approach applied supplies the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude of Ms = 6.0 will be exceeded in time intervals of 10, 20 and 75 years. We also produced graphs which present the different seismic hazard in the seismogenic sources examined in terms of varying probability which is useful for engineering and civil protection purposes, allowing the designation of priority sources for earthquake-resistant design. It is shown that within the above time intervals the seismogenic source (4) called Igoumenitsa (in NW Greece and west Albania) has the highest probability to experience an earthquake with magnitude M > 6.0. High probabilities are found also for Ochrida (source 22), Samos (source 53) and Chios (source 56).
Particulate emissions from L-Category vehicles towards Euro 5
The current experimental study presents particulate emissions from 30 Euro 1-4 L-category vehicles (i.e. 2-, 3- and 4-wheelers such as mopeds, motorcycles, quads and minicars, registered in Europe between 2009 and 2016) tested on a chassis dynamometer. The objectives were to identify those sub-categories with high emissions, to assess whether the measures prescribed in the Euro 5 legislation will effectively control particulate emissions and finally to investigate the need for additional measures. The results showed that 2-stroke (2S) mopeds and diesel minicars comprised the vehicles with the highest particulate mass (PM) and solid particle number above 23 nm (SPN23) emissions (up to 64 mg/km and 4.5 × 10(13) km(−1), respectively). It is uncertain whether the installation of diesel particulate filters (DPF) is a cost-effective measure for diesel mini-cars in order to comply with Euro 5 standard, while advanced emission controls will be required for 2S mopeds, if such vehicles remain competitive for Euro 5. Regarding 4-stroke mopeds, motorcycles and quads, PM emissions were one order of magnitude lower than 2S ones and already below the Euro 5 limit. Nevertheless, SPN23 emissions from these sub-categories were up to 5 times higher than the Euro 6 passenger cars limit (6 × 10(11) km(−1)). Even recent Euro 4 motorcycles exceeded this limit by up to 3 times. These results indicate that L-category vehicles are a significant contributor to vehicular particulate emissions and should be further monitored during and after the introduction of the Euro 5 step. Moreover, including SPN in the range 10–23 nm increases emission levels by up to 2.4 times compared to SPN23, while volatile and semi-volatile particle numbers were even higher. Finally, cold engine operation was found to be a significant contributor on SPN23 emissions, especially for vehicles with lower overall emission levels. These results indicate that a specific particle number limit may be required for L-category to align emissions with passenger cars.
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Prediction and evaluation of nonlinear site response with potentially liquefiable layers in the area of Nafplion (Peloponnesus, Greece) for a repeat of historical earthquakes
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 10, Heft 11, S. 2281-2304
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. We examine the possible non-linear behaviour of potentially liquefiable layers at selected sites located within the expansion area of the town of Nafplion, East Peloponnese, Greece. Input motion is computed for three scenario earthquakes, selected on the basis of historical seismicity data, using a stochastic strong ground motion simulation technique, which takes into account the finite dimensions of the earthquake sources. Site-specific ground acceleration synthetics and soil profiles are then used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at the sites of interest. The activation scenario of the Iria fault, which is the closest one to Nafplion (M=6.4), is found to be the most hazardous in terms of liquefaction initiation. In this scenario almost all the examined sites exhibit liquefaction features at depths of 6–12 m. For scenario earthquakes at two more distant seismic sources (Epidaurus fault – M6.3; Xylokastro fault – M6.7) strong ground motion amplification phenomena by the shallow soft soil layer are expected to be observed.
The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 6, Heft 6, S. 895-901
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a) the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b) the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that followed the strong shock of 20 October 2005 is significantly higher than in foreshocks. The significant aftershock-foreshock difference in b-value is valid not only if the entire aftershock sequence is considered but also if only the segment of aftershocks that occurred within the first 24-h or the first 48-h after the mainshock of 20 October 2005 are taken into account. This difference in b-value should be examined further in other foreshock-aftershock sequences because it could be used as a diagnostic of the mainshock occurrence within a few hours after its generation.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps
Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister. ; This article is based upon work from COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). VB and PC obtained support through the VES20 Inter-Cost LTC 20020 project. MS-G obtained support through the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (Ref. CEX 2018–000797-S). TU acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ChEESE project, Grant Agreement No. 823844).
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Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
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