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An attempt is made to construct a model of Latino political participation incorporating factors other than those relating to socioeconomic status (SES), focusing on variables influencing such participation to ascertain the distinctiveness of Latino activity & examine participatory acts beyond voting. A social structural model is created predicting that Latinos' social context may increase their opportunities for political participation. Survey data (N = 1,481 respondents in New York City, of whom 453 were Latinos) are used to estimate the model, employing an ordered probit methodolgy. Findings are outlined: (1) Social structural variables, including integration into politically active social networks, exposure to mobilization, & organizational affiliation increase the likelihood of Latino participation. (2) After including in the model variables measuring attachment to native country, the social structural variables remain significant. (3) Variables underlying Latino political activity are distinct from those explaining black & white participation. Latinos' social milieu acts as a critical context for socialization, information dissemination, & mobilization, thereby providing some requisite resources central to facilitating participation. 24 References. Adapted from the source document.

Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which, at any point in time, the level of support for any party or candidate is equally likely to go up or down. Each shift in the polls is then interpreted as the result of some combination of news and campaign strategies. A completely different story of campaigns is the mean reversion model in which the elections are determined by fundamental factors of the economy and partisanship; the role of the campaign is to give voters a chance to reach their predetermined positions. Using a new approach to analyze individual level poll data from recent presidential elections, we find that the fundamentals predict vote intention increasingly well as campaigns progress, which is consistent with the mean reversion model, at least at the time scale of months. We discuss the relevance of this finding to the literature on persuasion and activation effects.

We fit a multilevel logistic regression model for the mean of a binary response variable conditional on poststratification cells. This approach combines the modeling approach often used in small-area estimation with the population information used in poststratification (see Gelman and Little 1997,Survey Methodology23:127–135). To validate the method, we apply it to U.S. preelection polls for 1988 and 1992, poststratified by state, region, and the usual demographic variables. We evaluate the model by comparing it to state-level election outcomes. The multilevel model outperforms more commonly used models in political science. We envision the most important usage of this method to be not forecasting elections but estimating public opinion on a variety of issues at the state level.

The theory of issue ownership holds that competing candidates should avoid discussing many of the same issues during a campaign. In contrast, theories of democracy suggest that competitive elections are the mechanism by which the public can hold politicians accountable. To determine the extent to which each theory depicts current campaigns, we develop a new measure of "issue convergence" and test whether or not issue convergence increases as the competitiveness of the race increases. Using new data based upon television advertising aired in U.S. Senate campaigns from 1998 through 2002, we find that issue engagement or dialogue occurs more frequently than indicated by previous research. We also find that issue engagement increases with the competitiveness of the race but that issue engagement decreases as the gap in financial resources between candidates increases.

Logistic regression models have been used in political science for estimating ideal points of legislators and Supreme Court justices. These models present estimation and identifiability challenges, such as improper variance estimates, scale and translation invariance, reflection invariance, and issues with outliers. We address these issues using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, linear transformations, informative regression predictors, and explicit modeling for outliers. In addition, we explore new ways to usefully display inferences and check model fit.

For decades, the Democrats have been viewed as the party of the poor, with the Republicans representing the rich. Recent presidential elections, however, have shown a reverse pattern, with Democrats performing well in the richer blue states in the northeast and coasts, and Republicans dominating in the red states in the middle of the country and the south. Through multilevel modeling of individual-level survey data and county- and state-level demographic and electoral data, we reconcile these patterns. Furthermore, we find that income matters more in red America than in blue America. In poor states, rich people are much more likely than poor people to vote for the Republican presidential candidate, but in rich states (such as Connecticut), income has a very low correlation with vote preference.

Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Tables and Figures -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contributors -- 1. Introduction: Studying Public Opinion in the American States -- 2. Does Familiarity Breed Contempt? Examining the Correlates of State-Level Confidence in the Federal Government -- 3. State Residency, State Laws, and Public Opinion -- 4. Mexican-American and Cuban-American Public Opinion: Differences at the State Level? -- 5. Public Opinion in the States: Determinants of Legislative Job Performance -- 6. The State Economy, the National Economy, and Gubernatorial Popularity -- 7. Ideological Cleavage, Political Competition, and Policy Making in the American States -- 8. The Civil State:Trust, Polarization, and the Quality of State Government -- 9. Public Opinion and Policy Making in the Culture Wars: Is There a Connection Between Opinion and State Policy on Gay and Lesbian Issues? -- 10. Citizen Influences on State Policy Priorities: The Interplay of Public Opinion and Interest Groups -- 11. State-Level Opinions from National Surveys: Poststratification Using Multilevel Logistic Regression -- 12. Public Opinion in the States:A Quarter Century of Change and Stability -- 13. Conclusions:Where We Have Been,Where Should We Go -- Index