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Session - Monetary Economics ; Using an estimated DSGE model that features monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allows for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period while an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed post-Volcker. Since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre-Volcker, there was equilibrium indeterminacy that gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and resulted in substantially different transmission mechanisms of policy as compared to conventional models: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. Unanticipated shifts in monetary and fiscal policies however, played no substantial role in explaining the variation of inflation and output at any horizon in either of the time periods. Pre-Volcker, in sharp contrast to post-Volcker, we find that a time-varying inflation target does not explain low-frequency movements in inflation. A combination of shocks account for the dynamics of output, inflation, and government debt, with the relative importance of a particular shock quite different in the two time-periods due to changes in the systematic responses of policy. Finally, in a counterfactual exercise, we show that had the monetary policy regime of the post-Volcker era been in place pre-Volcker, inflation volatility would have been lower by 34% and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred. ; postprint

With increasing global uptake of variable-speed (inverter-driven) air conditioners (ACs), the globally uniform energy-efficiency ratio (EER) metric has given way to various region-specific part-load and seasonal performance AC metrics in many markets. As a result, policymakers around the world lack comparative data that might help them create more effective AC efficiency market-transformation programs. To help fill this gap, this paper explores relationships between the room AC efficiency performance metrics of different regions—including China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States—using performance data for split room AC models. We use these interregional conversion relationships to estimate the performance of >6000 AC models, including reversible heat pumps, in efficiency metrics used in the six economies as well as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 16,358 metric. Our results suggest a way to identify the potential for improving AC efficiency policies in regional markets. The most efficient models sold in each region and worldwide typically are more efficient than the most efficient level recognized by regional energy standards and labeling programs. This information could help policymakers evaluate and improve their AC efficiency market-transformation programs to align with the globally best-available technology.

With increasing global uptake of variable-speed (inverter-driven) air conditioners (ACs), the globally uniform energy-efficiency ratio (EER) metric has given way to various region-specific part-load and seasonal performance AC metrics in many markets. As a result, policymakers around the world lack comparative data that might help them create more effective AC efficiency market-transformation programs. To help fill this gap, this paper explores relationships between the room AC efficiency performance metrics of different regions—including China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States—using performance data for split room AC models. We use these interregional conversion relationships to estimate the performance of >6000 AC models, including reversible heat pumps, in efficiency metrics used in the six economies as well as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 16,358 metric. Our results suggest a way to identify the potential for improving AC efficiency policies in regional markets. The most efficient models sold in each region and worldwide typically are more efficient than the most efficient level recognized by regional energy standards and labeling programs. This information could help policymakers evaluate and improve their AC efficiency market-transformation programs to align with the globally best-available technology.