Progress in Spatial Demography
In: Demographic Research, Band 28, S. 271-312
ISSN: 1435-9871
18 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: Demographic Research, Band 28, S. 271-312
ISSN: 1435-9871
In: Wildlife research, Band 43, Heft 2, S. 178
ISSN: 1448-5494, 1035-3712
Context In the past 200 years, many carnivores have experienced a widespread decline in numbers and range reductions. Conservation interventions include the use of small, fenced reserves that have potential restoration benefits for conservation. Over the past 25 years, the Eastern Cape province of South Africa has seen the establishment of many small (≤440 km2) game reserves, and the reintroduction of the larger, indigenous wildlife that had been extirpated by the early 20th century, including brown hyaenas (Hyaena brunnea). These game reserves have restored the environment to a more natural state but little information exists concerning the benefits and implications of introducing elusive animals that are seldom seen after reintroduction. Fenced reserves have the potential to provide surplus animals that can be relocated for restoration purposes (where applicable) or serve as a buffer to the extinction of naturally occurring populations, but careful management is required to monitor populations appropriately, so as to avoid the costs of rapid population increase. Aims The reintroduction of brown hyaenas to the Eastern Cape has provided a case study to assess the role of small reserves and their potential to contribute to conservation, by determining the persistence and population growth of brown hyaenas in a small, enclosed reserve. Methods Estimates of brown hyaena density were calculated using a capture–recapture approach from individually identifiable images captured during a 3-month camera trapping survey. Key results After a single decade, the brown hyaena population increased by at least 367%, from six individuals to a minimum of 28 individuals. These results suggest that this brown hyaena population has the highest density ever recorded for the species in southern Africa. Conclusions and Implications Because brown hyaena populations were high relative to natural unfenced populations, high fences may provide two utilities for their conservation. Fenced reserves may provide surplus animals to support reintroductions and provide protected populations to buffer the risk of species extinction.
BackgroundMalaria in Southeast Asia frequently clusters along international borders. For example, while most of Thailand is malaria free, the border region shared with Myanmar continues to have endemic malaria. This spatial pattern is the result of complex interactions between landscape, humans, mosquito vectors, and malaria parasites. An understanding of these complex ecological and socio-cultural interactions is important for designing and implementing malaria elimination efforts in the region. This article offers an ecological perspective on the malaria situation along the Thailand-Myanmar border.DiscussionThis border region is long (2000 km), mountainous, and the environment ranges from thick forests to growing urban settlements and wet-rice fields. It is also a biologically diverse region. All five species of malaria known to naturally infect humans are present. At least three mosquito vector species complexes, with widely varying behavioural characteristics, exist in the area. The region is also a hub for ethnic diversity, being home to over ten different ethnolinguistic groups, several of which have been engaged in conflict with the Myanmar government now for over half a century. Given the biological and ethnic diversity, as well as the complex socio-political context, malaria control and elimination in the region is challenging.ConclusionDespite these complexities, multipronged approaches including collaborations with multiple local organizations, quick access to diagnosis and treatment, prevention of mosquito bites, radical cure of parasites, and mass drug administration appear to be drastically decreasing Plasmodium falciparum infections. Such approaches remain crucial as the region moves toward elimination of P. falciparum and potentially Plasmodium vivax.
BASE
BackgroundPotentially untreatable Plasmodium falciparum malaria threatens the Greater Mekong subregion. A previous series of pilot projects in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam suggested that mass drug administration was safe, and when added to provision of early diagnosis and treatment, could reduce the reservoir of P falciparum and interrupts transmission. We examined the effects of a scaled-up programme of this strategy in four townships of eastern Myanmar on the incidence of P falciparum malaria.MethodsThe programme was implemented in the four townships of Myawaddy, Kawkareik, Hlaingbwe, and Hpapun in Kayin state, Myanmar. Increased access to early diagnosis and treatment of malaria was provided to all villages through community-based malaria posts equipped with rapid diagnostic tests, and treatment with artemether-lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine. Villages were identified as malarial hotspots (operationally defined as >40% malaria, of which 20% was P falciparum) with surveys using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR either randomly or targeted at villages where the incidence of clinical cases of P falciparum malaria remained high (ie, >100 cases per 1000 individuals per year) despite a functioning malaria post. During each survey, a 2 mL sample of venous blood was obtained from randomly selected adults. Hotspots received targeted mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus single-dose primaquine once per month for 3 consecutive months in addition to the malaria posts. The main outcome was the change in village incidence of clinical P falciparum malaria, quantified using a multivariate, generalised, additive multilevel model. Malaria prevalence was measured in the hotspots 12 months after mass drug administration.FindingsBetween May 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017, 1222 malarial posts were opened, providing early diagnosis and treatment to an estimated 365 000 individuals. Incidence of P falciparum malaria decreased by 60 to 98% in the four townships. 272 prevalence surveys were undertaken and 69 hotspot villages were identified. By April 2017, 50 hotspots were treated with mass drug administration. Hotspot villages had a three times higher incidence of P falciparum at malarial posts than neighbouring villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2·7, 95% CI 1·8-4·4). Early diagnosis and treatment was associated with a significant decrease in P falciparum incidence in hotspots (IRR 0·82, 95% CI 0·76-0·88 per quarter) and in other villages (0·75, 0·73-0·78 per quarter). Mass drug administration was associated with a five-times decrease in P falciparum incidence within hotspot villages (IRR 0·19, 95% CI 0·13-0·26). By April, 2017, 965 villages (79%) of 1222 corresponding to 104 village tracts were free from P falciparum malaria for at least 6 months. The prevalence of wild-type genotype for K13 molecular markers of artemisinin resistance was stable over the three years (39%; 249/631).InterpretationProviding early diagnosis and effective treatment substantially decreased village-level incidence of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum malaria in hard-to-reach, politically sensitive regions of eastern Myanmar. Targeted mass drug administration significantly reduced malaria incidence in hotspots. If these activities could proceed in all contiguous endemic areas in addition to standard control programmes already implemented, there is a possibility of subnational elimination of P falciparum.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Regional Artemisinin Initiative (Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), and the Wellcome Trust.
BASE
Background: Myanmar has one of the largest malaria burdens in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Throughout the GMS, Plasmodium falciparum parasites are increasingly resistant to artemisinin combination therapies. Given that there are no current alternative treatment therapies, one proposed solution to the threat of untreatable P. falciparum malaria is to eliminate the parasite from the region. Several small-scale elimination projects have been piloted in the GMS, including along the Myanmar-Thailand border. Following the success of the pilot elimination project along the Myanmar-Thailand border, there was a scale up to a broad area of Eastern Kayin State, Myanmar. Here we describe the establishment of the scale up elimination project in Easter Kayin State. Methods: The scale up relied on geographic reconnaissance and a geographic information system, community engagement, generalized access to community-based early diagnosis and treatment, near real-time epidemiological surveillance, cross sectional malaria prevalence surveys and targeted mass drug administration in villages with high prevalence of P. falciparum malaria. Molecular markers of drug resistance were also monitored in individuals with symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Discussion: This protocol illustrates the establishment of an elimination project and operational research in a remote, rural area encompassing several armed groups, multiple political organizations and a near-absent health care infrastructure. The establishment of the project relied on a strong rapport with the target community, on-the-ground knowledge (through geographic surveys and community engagement), rapid decision making and an approach that was flexible enough to quickly adapt to a complex landscape. The elimination project is ongoing, now over three years in operation, and assessment of the impact of this operational research will follow. This project has relevance not only for other malaria elimination projects but also for operational research aimed at eliminating other diseases.
BASE
Abstract Background Malaria within the Greater Mekong sub-region is extremely heterogeneous. While China and Thailand have been relatively successful in controlling malaria, Myanmar continues to see high prevalence. Coupled with the recent emergence of artemisinin-resistant malaria along the Thai-Myanmar border, this makes Myanmar an important focus of malaria within the overall region. However, accurate epidemiological data from Myanmar have been lacking, in part because of ongoing and emerging conflicts between the government and various ethnic groups. Here the results are reported from a risk analysis of malaria slide positivity in a conflict zone along the China-Myanmar border. Methods Surveys were conducted in 13 clinics and hospitals around Laiza City, Myanmar between April 2011 and October 2012. Demographic, occupational and educational information, as well as malaria infection history, were collected. Logistic models were used to assess risk factors for slide positivity. Results Age patterns in Plasmodium vivax infections were younger than those with Plasmodium falciparum. Furthermore, males were more likely than females to have falciparum infections. Patients who reported having been infected with malaria during the previous year were much more likely to have a current vivax infection. During the second year of the study, falciparum infections among soldiers increased signficiantly. Conclusions These results fill some knowledge gaps with regard to risk factors associated with malaria slide positivity in this conflict region of north-eastern Myanmar. Since epidemiological studies in this region have been rare or non-existent, studies such as the current are crucial for understanding the dynamic nature of malaria in this extremely heterogeneous epidemiological landscape.
BASE
BACKGROUND: Dengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the years. The main objective of this study was to explore the epidemiological patterns of dengue since its first outbreak (2006) to 2019 in Nepal. METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis that covers the last 14 years (2006–2019) of reported dengue cases from Epidemiology Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal. Reported cases were plotted over time and maps of reported case incidence were generated (from 2016 through 2019). An ecological analysis of environmental predictors of case incidence was conducted using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: While endemic dengue has been reported in Nepal since 2006, the case load has increased over time and in 2019 a total of 17 992 dengue cases were reported from 68 districts (from all seven provinces). Compared to the case incidence in 2016, incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5–15.3] and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; 95% CI 45.8–438.4). A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI 0.01–0.20). However, the association between elevation and reported cases varied across the years. In 2018 there was a cluster of cases reported from high elevation Kaski District of Gandaki Province. Our results suggest that dengue infections are increasing in magnitude and expanding out of the lowland areas to higher elevations over time. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the lowland Terai region, with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14 years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics. [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at ...
BASE
BackgroundDengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the years. The main objective of this study was to explore the epidemiological patterns of dengue since its first outbreak (2006) to 2019 in Nepal.MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis that covers the last 14years (2006-2019) of reported dengue cases from Epidemiology Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal. Reported cases were plotted over time and maps of reported case incidence were generated (from 2016 through 2019). An ecological analysis of environmental predictors of case incidence was conducted using negative binomial regression.ResultsWhile endemic dengue has been reported in Nepal since 2006, the case load has increased over time and in 2019 a total of 17992 dengue cases were reported from 68 districts (from all seven provinces). Compared to the case incidence in 2016, incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-15.3] and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; 95% CI 45.8-438.4). A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI 0.01-0.20). However, the association between elevation and reported cases varied across the years. In 2018 there was a cluster of cases reported from high elevation Kaski District of Gandaki Province. Our results suggest that dengue infections are increasing in magnitude and expanding out of the lowland areas to higher elevations over time.ConclusionsThere is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the lowland Terai region, with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics.
BASE
In: Spatial Demography, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 1-29
ISSN: 2164-7070
Southeast Asia (SEA) emerged relatively unscathed from the first year of the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but as of July 2021 the region is experiencing a surge in case numbers primarily driven by Alpha (B.1.1.7) and subsequently the more transmissible Delta (B.1.617.2) variants. While initial disease burden was mitigated by swift government responses, favorable cultural and societal factors, the more recent rise in cases suggests an under-appreciation of prior prevalence and over-appreciation of possible cross-protective immunity from exposure to endemic viruses, and highlights the effects of vaccine rollout at varying tempos and of variable efficacy. This burgeoning crisis is further complicated by co-existence of malaria and dengue in the region, with implications of serological cross-reactivity on interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 assays and competing resource demands impacting efforts to contain both endemic and pandemic disease.
BASE
BackgroundThe collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance.MethodsThis retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time.ResultsIn the first 3years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48hof fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard.ConclusionsSurveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained ...
BASE
BACKGROUND: The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have ...
BASE
Preventing the over-exploitation of natural resources is vital to ensure that biodiversity is protected and conserved. Legislation and regulations are therefore necessary to manage resource utilisation, but overly stringent legislation and regulations can have unintended negative consequences. For example, biodiversity research, much of which is state funded, is now subject to excessive red tape to the extent that overregulation is impeding progress. Researchers must navigate a myriad of laws, rules, permit requirements, ethics clearances and approvals, many of which require annual renewal, progress reporting, and submission of amendment applications for ongoing projects. Excessive red tape particularly hinders field-based research, and in our experience, has a negative impact on research productivity in South Africa. If current levels of bureaucracy and managerialism persist, we believe that the impact on biodiversity research in the country will be debilitating. Former South African Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, has acknowledged the negative impact of red tape on small business enterprise and economic growth in South Africa, and there are now attempts to reduce it. So too, excessive red tape and overregulation of research should be rationalised to enhance knowledge generation and application. ; http://www.sajs.co.za ; hj2021 ; Centre for Veterinary Wildlife Studies ; Mammal Research Institute ; Paraclinical Sciences ; Zoology and Entomology
BASE
In: Hayward , M W , Callen , A , Allen , B L , Ballard , G , Broekhuis , F , Bugir , C , Clarke , R H , Clulow , J , Clulow , S , Daltry , J C , Davies-Mostert , H T , Fleming , P J S , Griffin , A S , Howell , L G , Kerley , G I H , Klop-Toker , K , Legge , S , Major , T , Meyer , N , Montgomery , R A , Moseby , K , Parker , D M , Périquet , S , Read , J , Scanlon , R , Seeto , R , Shuttleworth , C , Somers , M J , Tamessar , C T , Tuft , K , Upton , R , Valenzuela-Molina , M , Wayne , A , Witt , R R & Wuster , W 2019 , ' Deconstructing compassionate conservation ' , Conservation Biology , vol. 33 , no. 4 , pp. 760-768 . https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13366
Compassionate conservation focuses on 4 tenets: first, do no harm; individuals matter; inclusivity of individual animals; and peaceful coexistence between humans and animals. Recently, compassionate conservation has been promoted as an alternative to conventional conservation philosophy. We believe examples presented by compassionate conservationists are deliberately or arbitrarily chosen to focus on mammals; inherently not compassionate; and offer ineffective conservation solutions. Compassionate conservation arbitrarily focuses on charismatic species, notably large predators and megaherbivores. The philosophy is not compassionate when it leaves invasive predators in the environment to cause harm to vastly more individuals of native species or uses the fear of harm by apex predators to terrorize mesopredators. Hindering the control of exotic species (megafauna, predators) in situ will not improve the conservation condition of the majority of biodiversity even if compassionate conservationists do no harm to individuals of the exotic species. The positions taken by so‐called compassionate conservationists on particular species and on conservation actions could be extended to hinder other forms of conservation, including translocations, conservation fencing, and fertility control. Animal welfare is incredibly important to conservation, but ironically compassionate conservation does not offer the best welfare outcomes to animals and is often ineffective in achieving conservation goals. Consequently, compassionate conservation may threaten public and governmental support for conservation because of the general publics' limited understanding of conservation problems.
BASE
National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) currently make limited use of parasite genetic data. We have developed GenRe-Mekong, a platform for genetic surveillance of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) that enables NMCPs to implement large-scale surveillance projects by integrating simple sample collection procedures in routine public health procedures. Samples from symptomatic patients are processed by SpotMalaria, a high-throughput system that produces a comprehensive set of genotypes comprising several drug resistance markers, species markers and a genomic barcode. GenRe-Mekong delivers Genetic Report Cards, a compendium of genotypes and phenotype predictions used to map prevalence of resistance to multiple drugs. GenRe-Mekong has worked with NMCPs and research projects in eight countries, processing 9623 samples from clinical cases. Monitoring resistance markers has been valuable for tracking the rapid spread of parasites resistant to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine combination therapy. In Vietnam and Laos, GenRe-Mekong data have provided novel knowledge about the spread of these resistant strains into previously unaffected provinces, informing decision-making by NMCPs. GenRe-Mekong provides detailed knowledge about drug resistance at a local level, and facilitates data sharing at a regional level, enabling cross-border resistance monitoring and providing the public health community with valuable insights. The project provides a rich open data resource to benefit the entire malaria community. The GenRe-Mekong project is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP11188166, OPP1204268). Genotyping and sequencing were funded by the Wellcome Trust (098051, 206194, 203141, 090770, 204911, 106698/B/14/Z) and Medical Research Council (G0600718). A proportion of samples were collected with the support of the UK Department for International Development (201900, M006212), and Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
BASE