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This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging from the interaction between economic growth and environmental limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case for a government led system change within this decade, where the market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and sustainable development.

The first formal world models -- Comparison between World3 scenarios and historical data -- Welcome to the real world! -- The evolution of economic thinking and system modelling techniques -- The ERRE model -- ERRE database, statistical validation and stress test scenarios.

Sustainability and digitalization are essential duties for companies to perform in the current socio-economic landscape due to risks caused by traditional manufacturing practices, and rules imposed by stakeholders and governments. Tools that help exploring uncertain future scenarios to address such a complex challenge are of vital importance for both businesses, governments, and financial institutions. This paper presents the IN4.0-SD, a novel system dynamics model to capture the dynamic interplay of industrial innovation, inequality, and inflation. The IN4.0-SD is a closed-economy System Dynamics model composed of three agents: sustainable oriented innovation business (SOIB), digital asset supplier business (DASB), and household. DASB and SOIB are both assumed to supply one product to the economy and fundamentally differ among each other in their business models. While the sustainable oriented innovation business produces and sells capital goods making revenue out of sales, digital asset supplier detaches the concept of production from sales moving toward an intangible economy, charging for a fee licence of their tools that can be distributed via a network economy. Simulations show the level of flexibility of the model in addressing a variety of scenarios, playing at the threshold of technology development, inequality rise, massive unemployment and providing an archetype for sustainable oriented innovation and digital transformation models. The findings suggested by the model analysis are used to infer conclusions for the wider society, including implications for sustainable oriented businesses and digital transformation. These are confirmed by previous studies, around the overall trend in wealth creation for large technology firms' owners, potential impact for employment in the digital economy, and transformation for the labour market.

Sustainability and digitalization are essential duties for companies to perform in the current socio-economic landscape due to risks caused by traditional manufacturing practices, and rules imposed by stakeholders and governments. Tools that help exploring uncertain future scenarios to address such a complex challenge are of vital importance for both businesses, governments, and financial institutions. This paper presents the IN4.0-SD, a novel system dynamics model to capture the dynamic interplay of industrial innovation, inequality, and inflation. The IN4.0-SD is a closed-economy System Dynamics model composed of three agents: sustainable oriented innovation business (SOIB), digital asset supplier business (DASB), and household. DASB and SOIB are both as-sumed to supply one product to the economy and fundamentally differ among each other in their business models. While the sustainable oriented innovation business produces and sells capital goods making revenue out of sales, digital asset supplier detaches the concept of production from sales moving toward an intangible economy, charging for a fee licence of their tools that can be distributed via a network economy. Simulations show the level of flexibility of the model in ad-dressing a variety of scenarios, playing at the threshold of technology development, inequality rise, massive unemployment and providing an archetype for sustainable oriented innovation and digital transformation models. The findings suggested by the model analysis are used to infer conclusions for the wider society, including implications for sustainable oriented businesses and digital trans-formation. These are confirmed by previous studies, around the overall trend in wealth creation for large technology firms' owners, potential impact for employment in the digital economy, and transformation for the labour market.

In 1972, the Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.