Suchergebnisse

The timing and sequencing of completing education, leaving home, beginning full-time work, forming intimate relationships, and parenting are evolving rapidly worldwide. This study describes patterns of transition in a population-based longitudinal study of Australians at ages 20 and 29 ( N = 1,366). Latent class analysis and latent transition analysis identified four categories of emerging adulthood in both age-groups. At age 20, 41.8% were in the category of students living in their parents' home; at age 29, most were categorized as "established young adults" with (25.7%) or without children (51.1%). A majority of "young independents" at age 20 went on to become "established parents" at 29, and most students living independently at age 20 were "established young adults without children" at 29. Findings suggest that the directions of emerging adulthood are largely set in place by age 20. Programs and policies may be needed to support transitions into stable life partnerships and parenthood.

AbstractHomeless young adults are at increased risk for contact with the police and are overrepresented in the justice system. This study explored associations between homelessness, antisocial behaviour and violence victimisation using longitudinal panel data gathered through young adulthood. Data were drawn from a state representative population‐based sample of young adults from Victoria, Australia participating in the International Youth Development Study (IYDS; n = 2884, 54% female). Participants were surveyed at age 21 years, with follow‐up at ages 23 and 25 years. We examined changes in the prevalence of homelessness and tested hypothesised directional relationships between young adult homelessness, antisocial behaviour and violence victimisation using longitudinal cross‐lagged panel models. Multiple‐group modelling was used to test whether these relationships were moderated by gender. The prevalence of young adult homelessness was highest at age 21 (6.5%), declining at ages 23 (3.9%) and 25 years (2.5%). Results showed that young adult homelessness, antisocial behaviour and victimisation were related cross‐sectionally, but not longitudinally. Gender did not significantly moderate these associations. Findings suggest that the state of homelessness is associated with temporary vulnerability to potentially harmful and problematic situations involving antisocial behaviour and victimisation. These situations are likely to heighten risk for contact with the police and direct physical and psychological harm.

About the Series From its inception, the Disease Control Priorities series has focused attention on delivering efficacious health interventions that can result in dramatic reductions in mortality and disability at relatively modest cost. The approach has been multidisciplinary, and the recommendations have been evidence-based, scalable, and adaptable in multiple settings. Better and more equitable health care is the shared responsibility of governments and international agencies, public and private sectors, and societies and individuals, and all of these partners have been involved in the development of the series. Disease Control Priorities, third edition (DCP3) builds upon the foundation and analyses of the first and second editions of Disease Control Priorities (DCP1 and DCP2) to further inform program design and resource allocation at global and country levels by providing an up-to-date comprehensive review of the effectiveness of priority health interventions. In addition, DCP3 presents systematic and comparable economic evaluations of selected interventions, packages, delivery platforms, and policies based on newly developed economic methods. DCP3 presents its findings in nine individual volumes addressed to specific audiences. The volumes are structured around packages of conceptually related interventions, including those for maternal and child health, cardiovascular disease, infectious disease, and surgery. The volumes of DCP3 will constitute an essential resource for countries as they consider how best to improve health care, as well as for the global health policy community, technical specialists, and students.

Housing insecurity is concerning at any age, but the prevalence and predictors of young adult housing insecurity are poorly described. Multivariable regression analyses using cross-national longitudinal data from a population-based sample tested prospective associations between various adolescent predictors and young adult housing insecurity. Participants from Washington State (United States) and Victoria (Australia) were surveyed at ages 13, 14 and 15 (2002–2004) and 25 and 29 years (2014–15, 2018–19; N = 1945; 46% female). The prevalence of housing insecurity was 9%. Multivariable predictors of housing insecurity included living in Washington State, antisocial behavior, a history of school suspension, and academic underachievement. School suspension was more strongly related to insecure housing in Washington State than in Victoria. Future analyses should explore state policy differences and risk and protective processes within social-ecological contexts to identify population-level modifiable upstream risk factors for housing insecurity that can be targeted earlier in the life course.

More children born today will survive to adulthood than at any time in history. It is now time to emphasize health and development in middle childhood and adolescence-- developmental phases that are critical to health in adulthood and the next generation. This publication explores the benefits that accrue from sustained and targeted interventions across the first two decades of life. The volume outlines the investment case for effective, costed, and scalable interventions for low-resource settings, emphasizing the cross-sectoral role of education. This evidence base can guide policy makers in prioritizing actions to promote survival, health, cognition, and physical growth throughout childhood and adolescence.

AbstractThere is increasing evidence that the COVID‐19 pandemic has had substantial mental health impacts for adolescents. Yet, few definitive studies have investigated which adolescents were at higher risk of poor mental health and well‐being during the pandemic. Data were drawn from the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study, a prospective cohort study of students in Australia (N = 1211). Prevalence of mental health outcomes (depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, self‐harm and good subjective well‐being) was estimated in school Years 5–12, where Years 11 (2020) and 12 (2021) coincided with the pandemic. The age‐ and sex‐adjusted relative risk of each mental health outcome for each priority group during the pandemic were estimated. During the pandemic, over 50% of study participants reported depressive symptoms, and one quarter reported anxiety symptoms. There was a decrease in good subjective well‐being compared with pre‐pandemic years, while self‐harm prevalence remained similar. History of mental health problems, school disengagement and frequent peer victimisation increased the risk of experiencing mental health problems during the pandemic. Schools play a central role in maintaining the mental health and good subjective well‐being of students, and this is particularly important during periods of social disruption, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic.

There is a dearth of research on delinquency, school context, and risk factors across developed and developing nations. Using representative samples and matched surveys, we examined delinquency among cohorts in Mumbai, India (N = 3,717); Victoria, Australia (N = 1,842); and Washington State (WA), United States (N = 1,828). We used multivariate Poisson hierarchical linear modeling. Risk factor and delinquency levels varied across sites. Delinquency clustered within certain schools, particularly in Mumbai. Community disorganization exhibited an association with delinquency as a school‐level context effect in Mumbai and Victoria. Peer delinquency, sensation seeking, and poor family management exhibited cross‐nationally consistent associations with delinquency. Programs that target schools, the clustering of problem behaviors, and cross‐nationally consistent risk factors should be considered internationally.

Background: Debate continues about the consequences of adolescent cannabis use. Existing data are limited in statistical power to examine rarer outcomes and less common, heavier patterns of cannabis use than those already investigated; furthermore, evidence has a piecemeal approach to reporting of young adult sequelae. We aimed to provide a broad picture of the psychosocial sequelae of adolescent cannabis use. Methods: We integrated participant-level data from three large, long-running longitudinal studies from Australia and New Zealand: the Australian Temperament Project, the Christchurch Health and Development Study, and the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study. We investigated the association between the maximum frequency of cannabis use before age 17 years (never, less than monthly, monthly or more, weekly or more, or daily) and seven developmental outcomes assessed up to age 30 years (high-school completion, attainment of university degree, cannabis dependence, use of other illicit drugs, suicide attempt, depression, and welfare dependence). The number of participants varied by outcome (N=2537 to N=3765). Findings: We recorded clear and consistent associations and dose-response relations between the frequency of adolescent cannabis use and all adverse young adult outcomes. After covariate adjustment, compared with individuals who had never used cannabis, those who were daily users before age 17 years had clear reductions in the odds of high-school completion (adjusted odds ratio 0·37, 95% CI 0·20-0·66) and degree attainment (0·38, 0·22-0·66), and substantially increased odds of later cannabis dependence (17·95, 9·44-34·12), use of other illicit drugs (7·80, 4·46-13·63), and suicide attempt (6·83, 2·04-22·90). Interpretation: Adverse sequelae of adolescent cannabis use are wide ranging and extend into young adulthood. Prevention or delay of cannabis use in adolescence is likely to have broad health and social benefits. Efforts to reform cannabis legislation should be carefully assessed to ensure they reduce adolescent cannabis use and prevent potentially adverse developmental effects. Funding: Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council.

Background: Debate continues about the consequences of adolescent cannabis use. Existing data are limited in statistical power to examine rarer outcomes and less common, heavier patterns of cannabis use than those already investigated; furthermore, evidence has a piecemeal approach to reporting of young adult sequelae. We aimed to provide a broad picture of the psychosocial sequelae of adolescent cannabis use. Methods: We integrated participant-level data from three large, long-running longitudinal studies from Australia and New Zealand: the Australian Temperament Project, the Christchurch Health and Development Study, and the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study. We investigated the association between the maximum frequency of cannabis use before age 17 years (never, less than monthly, monthly or more, weekly or more, or daily) and seven developmental outcomes assessed up to age 30 years (high-school completion, attainment of university degree, cannabis dependence, use of other illicit drugs, suicide attempt, depression, and welfare dependence). The number of participants varied by outcome (N=2537 to N=3765). Findings: We recorded clear and consistent associations and dose-response relations between the frequency of adolescent cannabis use and all adverse young adult outcomes. After covariate adjustment, compared with individuals who had never used cannabis, those who were daily users before age 17 years had clear reductions in the odds of high-school completion (adjusted odds ratio 0·37, 95% CI 0·20-0·66) and degree attainment (0·38, 0·22-0·66), and substantially increased odds of later cannabis dependence (17·95, 9·44-34·12), use of other illicit drugs (7·80, 4·46-13·63), and suicide attempt (6·83, 2·04-22·90). Interpretation: Adverse sequelae of adolescent cannabis use are wide ranging and extend into young adulthood. Prevention or delay of cannabis use in adolescence is likely to have broad health and social benefits. Efforts to reform cannabis legislation should be carefully assessed to ensure they reduce adolescent cannabis use and prevent potentially adverse developmental effects. Funding: Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council.

The Australian New Zealand Intergenerational Cohort Consortium (ANZ-ICC) brings together three of the longest running intergenerational cohort studies in Australia and New Zealand to examine the extent to which preconception parental life histories (from infancy to parenthood) predict next generation early health and development. The aims are threefold: (1) to describe pathways of advantage that strengthen emotional health and well-being from one generation to the next, (2) to describe pathways of disadvantage that perpetuate cycles of emotional and behavioural problems across generations, and (3) to identify modifiable factors capable of breaking intergenerational cycles. The Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study has followed 1,943 young Australians from adolescence to adulthood across ten waves since 1992, and 1,030 offspring from pregnancy to early childhood since 2006. The Australian Temperament Project Generation 3 Study has followed 2,443 young Australians from infancy to adulthood across 15 waves since 1983, and 1170 offspring from pregnancy to early childhood since 2012. The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study Parenting Study has followed 1,037 young New Zealanders across 15 waves since 1972, and 730 offspring in early childhood since 1994. Cross-cohort replication analyses will be conducted for common preconception exposures and next generation offspring outcomes, while integrated data analysis of pooled data will be used for rare exposures and outcomes. The ANZ-ICC represents a unique collaboration that bridges the disciplines of lifecourse epidemiology, biostatistics, developmental psychology and psychiatry, to study the role of parental preconception exposures on next generation health and development.

IMPORTANCE The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged < 5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2–25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1–5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8–31·1) and 34·4% (29·4–38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7–7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.