Suchergebnisse

The intelligence sector analysis in El Salvador allows to gauge the reach and orientation of the strategic review of this specialized area of the State, as a proposal and main management resource. It contributes to the process of developing the concept and qualitative approximation of the intelligence generating organizations. This non-conventional discipline has registered an expansion in its field of study due to global influence. For this reason, and given the limited access to statistics and reports, an elite survey was used for experts in the sector. The processing of said survey has allowed to rebuild the situation of this sensitive governmental sector at a medium scale, as well as allowing to identify the challenges of future professionalization and transformation that must be faced. Everything mentioned before provides a fundamental contribution to locate key strategic factors where the changes in the sector need to be driven to. ; El análisis del sector de inteligencia en El Salvador, permite dimensionar los alcances y orientaciones de la revisión estratégica en ésta área especializada del Estado, en tanto propuesta y principal recurso de gestión. Contribuyendo en el proceso al desarrollo del concepto y a la aproximación cualitativa a los organismos productores de inteligencia. Esta disciplina no convencional ha registrado una expansión en su campo de estudio por la influencia de lo global. Por ello y dada las limitaciones de acceso a estadísticas e informes, se utilizó una encuesta élite para expertos del sector; cuyo procesamiento ha servido para reconstruir a mediana escala la situación de esta área sensible de la esfera gubernamental. Así también ha hecho posible la identificación de los retos de profesionalización y transformación futura que deben enfrentar. Todo lo anterior generando un aporte fundamental de ubicación de factores estratégicos claves, hacia los cuales debe dirigirse y orientarse el cambio en el sector.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of voting behavior, and especially of political polarization, in 20 advanced countries using annual data ranging from 1970 to 2016 and covering 291 parliamentary elections. Using a panel estimation approach and rolling regressions, our analysis indicates that a significant change in the link between income inequality and political polarization appears to have taken place over the last twenty years. Indeed, we find that both average inequality, measured by the post-tax Gini coefficient, as well as the bottom 10%income share are statistically linked to the recent success of far-right parties, while the top 10% or top 20% incomes shares are not. The link of income inequality and political polarization thus seems to be based on the deterioration of the relative economic position especially of the poorest fraction of the population. Furthermore, we find no empirical support for the notion that social and economic globalization has led to an increase in the popularity of far-right parties.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of voting behavior, and especially of political polarization, for 20 advanced countries using annual data ranging from 1970 to 2016 and covering 291 parliamentary elections. Using a panel estimation approach and rolling regressions we find empirical evidence supporting that a) traditionally established mainstream parties (center-left, center, and center-right) are penalized for poor economic performance; b) far-left (populist and radical parties) parties benefit from increasing unemployment rates; c) greater income inequality has increased the electoral support for far-right parties, particularly in recent times. Further, we do not find empirical support for the notion that social and economic globalization has led to an increase of popularity of far-right parties. These results have wide reaching implications for the current political situation in the Western world.

We investigate the effects of group identity and income inequality on social preferences and polarization by means of a laboratory experiment. We split our subjects into two populations: in-group (representing "natives") and out-group ("migrants"). In-group subjects repeatedly vote whether an unemployment insurance should cover all, some, or no members of their group. By means of a two-by-two design we disentangle the effect of group identity from those of income inequality. Among others, our experiment yields the following findings: (1) subjects tend to vote for less inclusive insurance schemes when they sample a higher chance of employment; however, (2) in-group subjects with an ex ante more beneficial distribution of employment chances - relative to the out-group - are less selfish and vote for more inclusive insurance schemes; (3) ex ante more beneficial relative employment chances of in-group subjects also leads to less polarization; and (4) revelation and priming of group identity does not lead to discrimination against out-group "migrants" but, on the contrary, can lead to more compassionate and inclusive attitudes.

Wildfires cause substantial losses to socio-economic and natural assets, especially in Mediterranean climate regions. Despite human activity being the main cause of wildfires in Mediterranean European countries, lightning-ignited wildfires should also be considered a major disruptive agent as they can trigger large fires. In addition, recent studies on the potential climate change effects on wildfires pointed out that lightning-ignited wildfires may gain relevance in Mediterranean areas in the years to come. The present study analyses the synoptical weather patterns favouring lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Being able to identify areas with an elevated lightning-ignition survival at daily timescales would be of great assistance to wildfire management agencies, i.e. locating ignitions and potential holdover fires, preparing for days with multiple ignitions or routing detection flight paths. It is worth noticing that one of the reasons that lightning-caused wildfires are difficult to manage is that they can survive for several days after the ignition, emerging days later once surface vegetation becomes dry enough to support sustained combustion. For this reason, in a first step, a reliable lightning–wildfire association is needed to properly identify the date and time of the fire starter for each wildfire. Afterwards, the circulation types on the days of ignition are analysed. The study relies on a dataset of 870 lightning-ignited wildfires, gathered by the Forest Protection Agency of the autonomous government of Catalonia between 2005 and 2020. Lightning data were provided by the Lightning Location System operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. Results show that lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia are related to a typical synoptic weather pattern dominated by a short-wave trough at 500 hPa, with three distinct associations: an Iberian thermal low (51 % of the fires), a northern flow (24 %) and prefrontal convection (13 %).

Wildfires cause substantial losses to socio-economic and natural assets, especially in Mediterranean climate regions. Despite human activity being the main cause of wildfires in Mediterranean European countries, lightning-ignited wildfires should also be considered a major disruptive agent as they can trigger large fires. In addition, recent studies on the potential climate change effects on wildfires pointed out that lightning-ignited wildfires may gain relevance in Mediterranean areas in the years to come. The present study analyses the synoptical weather patterns favouring lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Being able to identify areas with an elevated lightning-ignition survival at daily timescales would be of great assistance to wildfire management agencies, i.e. locating ignitions and potential holdover fires, preparing for days with multiple ignitions or routing detection flight paths. It is worth noticing that one of the reasons that lightning-caused wildfires are difficult to manage is that they can survive for several days after the ignition, emerging days later once surface vegetation becomes dry enough to support sustained combustion. For this reason, in a first step, a reliable lightning–wildfire association is needed to properly identify the date and time of the fire starter for each wildfire. Afterwards, the circulation types on the days of ignition are analysed. The study relies on a dataset of 870 lightning-ignited wildfires, gathered by the Forest Protection Agency of the autonomous government of Catalonia between 2005 and 2020. Lightning data were provided by the Lightning Location System operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. Results show that lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia are related to a typical synoptic weather pattern dominated by a short-wave trough at 500 hPa, with three distinct associations: an Iberian thermal low (51 % of the fires), a northern flow (24 %) and prefrontal convection (13 %). ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published ...

Wildfires cause substantial losses to socio-economic and natural assets, especially in Mediterranean climate regions. Despite human activity being the main cause of wildfires in Mediterranean European countries, lightning-ignited wildfires should also be considered a major disruptive agent as they can trigger large fires. In addition, recent studies on the potential climate change effects on wildfires pointed out that lightning-ignited wildfires may gain relevance in Mediterranean areas in the years to come. The present study analyses the synoptical weather patterns favouring lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Being able to identify areas with an elevated lightning-ignition survival at daily timescales would be of great assistance to wildfire management agencies, i.e. locating ignitions and potential holdover fires, preparing for days with multiple ignitions or routing detection flight paths. It is worth noticing that one of the reasons that lightning-caused wildfires are difficult to manage is that they can survive for several days after the ignition, emerging days later once surface vegetation becomes dry enough to support sustained combustion. For this reason, in a first step, a reliable lightning–wildfire association is needed to properly identify the date and time of the fire starter for each wildfire. Afterwards, the circulation types on the days of ignition are analysed. The study relies on a dataset of 870 lightning-ignited wildfires, gathered by the Forest Protection Agency of the autonomous government of Catalonia between 2005 and 2020. Lightning data were provided by the Lightning Location System operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. Results show that lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia are related to a typical synoptic weather pattern dominated by a short-wave trough at 500 hPa, with three distinct associations: an Iberian thermal low (51 % of the fires), a northern flow (24 %) and prefrontal convection (13 %).