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The acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a harbinger for change in health care. There are many powerful forces poised to transform the industrialized health care structure of the twentieth century, and AIDS may act as either a catalyst or an amplifier for these forces. AIDS could, for example, swamp local resources and thereby help trigger national reform in a health care system that has already lost public confidence. AIDS can also hasten the paradigm shift that is occurring throughout health care. Many of the choices society will confront when dealing with AIDS carry implications beyond health care. Information about who has the disease, for example, already pits traditional individual rights against group interests. Future information systems could make discrimination based upon medical records a nightmare for a growing number of individuals. Yet these systems also offer the hope of accelerated progress against not only AIDS but other major health threats as well. The policy choices that will define society's response to AIDS can best be made in the context of a clearly articulated vision of a society that reflects our deepest values.

The long-term health care implications of the AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) epidemic are addressed from a futurist perspective, with focus on tax policy, hospital support, federal research policy, & Medicare/Medicaid. It is speculated that the AIDS epidemic could exhaust resources & thereby help trigger national reform, potentially hastening the paradigm shift that is occurring throughout the health care system. Implications of AIDS that go beyond health care are also examined, including issues relating to the right of privacy among AIDS sufferers & how this is threatened by future information systems that could make discrimination based on medical records a nightmare. Though potentially threatening, these information systems also offer the hope of accelerating progress against not only AIDS but other major health threats as well. Policy implications for dealing with the epidemic are discussed, & suggestions for how futurists can best respond to the challenge of AIDS are offered. 1 Table. Adapted from the source document.

North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios will be used in discussions and futures exercises with forestry leaders to develop foresight and assure that plans are responsive to the challenges and opportunities ahead.