Suchergebnisse

This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies in emerging Asia. The key result is that macro-prudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.

Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in affecting inflation rather than monetary policy. To assess the tradeoff between the use of the exchange rate and monetary policy in macroeconomic stabilization, we employ a model-based approach to examine the optimal policy in response to the historical distribution of exogenous shocks in a Pacific Island (Tonga). The empirical evidence and model simulations tilt in the favor of exchange rate policy given the close relationship between exchange rate changes and headline inflation and the low interest rate sensitivity of aggregate demand.

This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks whil

This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with macrofinancial linkages. The model includes a financial accelerator--entrepreneurs are assumed to partially finance investment using domestic and foreign currency debt--to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to estimate the model using India data. The model is used to assess the importance of the financial accelerator in India and the optimality of monetary policy

This paper explores the sources of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa by examining the relationship between inflation, the output gap, and the real money gap. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration estimation techniques, we estimate cointegrating vectors for the production function and the real money demand function to recover the structural output and money gaps for seventeen African countries. The central finding is that both gaps contain significant information regarding the evolution of inflation, albeit with a larger role played by the money gap. There is no significant evidence of asymmetr