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This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of different trade and pricing policies on the grains and livestock sector in the Philippines. Four trade policy alternatives were evaluated: (a) base 1990 trade policies; (b) full trade liberalization in the grains and livestock sector: (c) a uniform 20 percent import tariff system for both grains and livestock commodities; and (d) price stabilization of rice and corn. Two price stabilization instruments, buffer-stock and variable import levy, two target prices, and two price band band widths were evaluated. The economic surplus measure of costs and benefits was used as the basis for economic efficiency comparisons among the different trade and pricing policies. The study simulated the operations of grains and livestock markets in the Philippines. Supply and risk response parameters were estimated with profit function approach using time-series data on prices, production, and input usage. Food demand elasticities were adopted from previous works in the Philippines. A separate set of demand functions were estimated for corn as livestock feed with the use of pseudo-data generated by varying the prices of the different feed ingredients in a process model of least-cost feed rations of hog and poultry. The ten-year period simulations were iterated 250 times, using world prices of wheat, rice, and corn drawn from their historical price distributions along the trend projected by the World Bank. Results of the study revealed that most economic gains can be attained by shifting to full trade liberalization of grains and livestock markets. With full trade liberalization, the economy gains by importing lower priced corn and producing higher-valued livestock products for domestic consumption and exports. The effect of a uniform 20 percent tariff is similar to that of full trade liberalization, but with lesser economic benefits. On the other hand, due to positive supply response to stabilized prices, there are small economic gains that could be achieved by the operation of a stabilization scheme for rice and corn over trade liberalization. These benefits, however, are offset by the heavy financial exposure required from the government. The variable import levy that defends rice and com prices at average expected world prices gives the best results among the different price-stabilization schemes. ; Ph. D.

This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment. ; PR ; IFPRI1; 2020 ; DGO

In Indonesia production of food crops grew an impressive 4.3 percent a year between 1978 and 1988, largely as a result of favorable government pricing, research, and investment policies toward rice and other crops. In recent years, however, the high costs of subsidies to the government and the increasing competition for scarce resources among commodities have caused Indonesian policymakers to take a fresh look at these policies in order to determine what is needed in a changing economic environment. What policies should the government pursue for rice and other major food crops? Should the government provide incentives or investments to promote rice as an export crop? What have been the effects of government policies on the international competitiveness of other commodities such as corn or cassava? Is there a continuing role for large input subsidies, or should these subsidies be eliminated? What investments are appropriate in the food crop sector? The report examines trends in the government policies and production of five major food crops (rice, corn, soybeans, sugar, and cassava) in Indonesia; analyzes the effects of government input-output pricing policies on domestic production incentives for these food crops; and assesses their relative comparative advantage under the three trade regimes of import substitution, interregional trade, and export promotion. ; PR ; IFPRI1