Suchergebnisse

AbstractEmpirical studies of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity show substantial differences in specifications with little agreement on the set of included covariates. We use Bayesian statistical techniques that allow one to select from a large set of candidates those variables most likely to be determinants of FDI activity. The variables with consistently high inclusion probabilities include traditional gravity variables, cultural distance factors, relative labour endowments and trade agreements. There is little support for multilateral trade openness, most host‐country business costs, host‐country infrastructure and host‐country institutions. Our results suggest that many covariates found significant by previous studies are not robust.

This paper investigates the differences in the cyclical dynamics in employment on non‐agricultural payroll (ENAP) and total civilian employment (TCE), and the implications for monitoring US business cycles in real time. We find that employment measures have diverged considerably around the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries. This significantly impacts identification of turning points. Models that use TCE are more in line with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dating, and deliver faster call of troughs in real time, whereas models that include ENAP series yield delays in signaling troughs, especially the most recent ones.