Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTBusiness analytics courses, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, have substantial predictive modeling components. The predictive modeling in these courses requires students to estimate and test many linear regressions. As a result, false positive variable selection (type I errors) is nearly certain to occur. This article describes an in‐class demonstration that shows the frequency and impact of false positives on data mining regression‐based predictive modeling. In this demonstration, 500 randomly generated independent (X) variables are individually regressed against a single, randomly generated (Y) variable, and the resulting 500 p‐values are sorted and examined. This experiment is repeated and the distribution of the number of variables significant at the 5% level resulting from this simulation is presented and discussed. The demonstration provides a tangible example in which students see the reality and risks of incorrectly inferring statistical significance of independent regression variables. Students have expressed a deeper understanding and appreciation of the risks of type I errors through this demonstration. This demonstration is innovative because the scale of the simulation allows the students to experience the near certainty that the correlations shown in the results are truly random.

ABSTRACTBusiness students taking business analytics courses that have significant predictive modeling components, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, are introduced to nonlinear regression using application software that is a "black box" to the students. Thus, although correct models are estimated, students often do not obtain a thorough understanding of the nonlinear estimation process. The exercise presented in this article was created to demonstrate to students the need for nonlinear regression estimation—rather than using linear transformations and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and subsequently demonstrate the nonlinear optimization process to estimate nonlinear regression models. Using the spreadsheet exercise, students can see effects on the fit of the model by changing the model parameters as they change the values of the decision variables. After applying the spreadsheet to further exercises, students have expressed a deep understanding of the linear regression software. This exercise is innovative because the active learning exercise requires the students to make the logical connections between the structure of the model, the model's parameters, and the objective function.

ABSTRACTRecent developments in agent‐based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent‐based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent‐based modeling by solving a knapsack optimization problem. For the activity, students act as naïve agents by using dice to randomly selecting items for a finite capacity knapsack to maximize the value of the knapsack. Students then design a greedy heuristic to skew the probability of selection item. These pencil‐and‐paper models are then implemented in a spreadsheet model to demonstrate the effects of altering the agents' behavior. Finally, a binary integer programming model is examined to contrast agent‐based modeling with traditional mathematical programming formulations. This exercise is innovative because it combines student engagement via active learning with an innovative, individual‐based, modeling methodology.