Cet article vise à donner un aperçu du ciblage des prévisions d'inflation pour renforcer la crédibilité et maintenir une stabilité durable. Nous montrons en quoi le ciblage des prévisions d'inflation est une approche transparente et une stratégie idéale pour la politique monétaire. De plus, la compréhension du grand public serait essentielle pour favoriser la confiance et assurer l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Pour ce faire, une gestion ferme des anticipations et une communication transparente sont importantes.
this article aims to provide an overview of the targeting of inflation forecasts to enhance credibility and maintain sustainable stability. We show how the targeting of inflation forecasts is a transparent approach and an ideal strategy for monetary policy. Moreover, understanding of the general public would be essential to foster trust and ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy. To this end, firm management of expectations and transparent communication are important. ; Cet article vise à donner un aperçu du ciblage des prévisions d'inflation pour renforcer la crédibilité et maintenir une stabilité durable. Nous montrons en quoi le ciblage des prévisions d'inflation est une approche transparente et une stratégie idéale pour la politique monétaire. De plus, la compréhension du grand public serait essentielle pour favoriser la confiance et assurer l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Pour ce faire, une gestion ferme des anticipations et une communication transparente sont importantes.
La méthodologie de la cointégration a comblé le vide qui existait entre les théoriciens de l'économie et les économètres dans la compréhension de la dynamique, de l'équilibre et du biais sur la fiabilité de l'analyse macroéconomique et financière, qui est sujette au comportement non stationnaire. Ce papier propose un examen pertinent de la puissance du modèle à correction d'erreurs. Les théoriciens et les économètres ont démontré que le modèle à correction d'erreurs est une machine puissante qui offre à la politique macroéconomique un raffinement des résultats économétriques.
This note aims to reflect on a good framework for public finance management in DR. Congo. The diagnostics predict inefficient and uncontrolled management of public expenditure, inefficient mobilization of revenue, although linked to certain economic and political factors. In doing so, it would be more odious to rethink tax reform strategies, which would require real and committed action from all stakeholders with a long-term perspective.
African Union adopted a strategy for creating a continental free trade area, which aims to deepen the economic integration of Africa; intensify intra-African trade; improve competitiveness; contribute to the movement of capital and people; promote sustainable and inclusive socioeconomic development; transform the structural structure of African economies and promote industrialization. To this order we analyze the implications of African central banks and their strategic roles in the process of the continental free trade area. We note that much of the analysis of the continental free trade area in Africa has turned to the implications for government revenue, tariff and non-tariff barriers, welfare, uneven distribution. This note examines the implications of central banks in the continental free trade area.
This article aims to consolidate strategic importance of communication in managing expectations and stabilizing the congolese economy. We propose a reinforcement in terms of communication, on the one hand by using not only french as a language, but also the national languages, such as Lingala, and on the other hand by using a maximum of television broadcasts on dedication from the congolese central bank to stabilize the economy. These instruments could restore confidence and allow the bank central of the Congo to better manage exchange rate and inflation expectations. In addition, there are reportedly no studies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo related to the influence of central bank communication on expectations. Thus, this analysis contributes to the Central bank theoretical literature. In prospect a development of a new communication index of the Bank central of the Congo is desirable in order to reinforce the effectiveness of the monetary policy.
This paper offers a snapshot of the impact of COVID-19 on the African economy. Using the Probit regression model, we found that economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, and commodity prices were strongly affected. The study concluded that COVID-19 harmed the African economy. We suggest a rapid response of short-term macroeconomic policies and long-term economic diversification reforms to build resilience. ; Ce papier offre un aperçu de l'impact de la COVID-19 sur l'économie africaine. En utilisant le modèle de régression Probit, nous avons constaté que la croissance économique, l'inflation, le taux de change, le taux de chômage et les cours des produits de base étaient fortement affectés. L'étude a conclu que la COVID-19 a nui à l'économie africaine. Nous suggérons une réponse rapide des politiques macroéconomiques à court terme et des reformes sur la diversification de l'économie à long terme pour renforcer la résilience
This paper seeks to study and answer the question on the nature and direction of the causality between financial development and economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using data from 2004 to 2019. The long-term relationship not being robust, we opted for the short-term dynamics with the causality test in the sense of Granger to support this question. The results indicated the existence of a one-way causality from economic growth to financial development. This result is in line with the Demand following hypothesis, given the country's economic and financial landscape, which presents a less deep financial system. Consequently, choices of growth policies (increase in knowledge, infrastructure, pleasant business climate, structural reforms, etc.) should be adopted to enhance and develop the Congolese financial system. However, we recognize that once growth is restored and becomes sustainable, financial development could lead to sustained and resilient economic growth.
COVID-19 is spreading at a rate that could cause fear for international trade. In the past three months, the total number of confirmed cases has increased. The virus has confined more than half of the planet, contaminating the functioning of industries, dysfunctioning infrastructure at the national level, such as health care, transport, commerce and public services. The slowdown in production in China has had effects worldwide, reflecting China's growing importance in global supply chains and in commodity markets. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where foreign trade represents on average 60% of its economy, is severely affected by this pandemic. The economy is in recession, prices continue to climb, the value of the currency continues to depreciate and leads to a loss of confidence.
International audience This paper assesses the shock impact of commodity prices on the macroeconomic framework in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we determine the impulses of each macroeconomic sector to lower prices. The results indicate that this shock leads to complex effects that can lead to systemic risks and crises. We suggest that it would be important for governments, given such shocks, to learn from and take immediate action to strengthen the resilience of the economy and the financial system to future shocks in based.
International audience ; This paper assesses the shock impact of commodity prices on the macroeconomic framework in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we determine the impulses of each macroeconomic sector to lower prices. The results indicate that this shock leads to complex effects that can lead to systemic risks and crises. We suggest that it would be important for governments, given such shocks, to learn from and take immediate action to strengthen the resilience of the economy and the financial system to future shocks in based.
International audience ; The need to strengthen the macro prudential orientation of financial regulatory and supervisory frameworks stays a priority for financial and real healthy. Stability financial threatened with endogenous and exogenous risks translating crises, hence it has to a healthy regulation for the reduction risks. Macro prudential policy proves to be a best regulation for limiting systemic risk. We wonder about adoption a framework macro prudential for stability financial in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The correlation between countercyclical capital buffer and stability financial justify to make use of framework macro prudential. The causality analysis put in light the effect of policy macro prudential on financial stability. The coefficient of reserve requirements, used like an indicator par excellence, and countercyclical capital buffer cause financial stability. That's justify an adoption of frame work macro prudential in DRC. ; La nécessité de renforcer l'orientation macro prudentielle des dispositifs de régulation et de surveillance demeure une priorité pour la bonne santé financière et réelle. La stabilité financière est menacée par les risques endogènes et exogènes traduisant les crises, d'où il faut une régulation saine pour la réduction des risques. La politique macro prudentielle s'avère être une meilleure régulation financière en réduisant le risque systémique.Nous nous interrogeons sur l'adoption d'un cadre macro prudentiel pour la stabilité financière en République démocratique du Congo (RDC). Le coussin de fond propre contra cyclique est fortement corrélé avec la stabilité financière. Cela justifie la mise en œuvre d'un cadre macro prudentiel.L'analyse de la causalité a mis en lumière l'effet de la politique macro prudentielle sur la stabilité financière. Les coefficients de réserve obligatoire en franc congolais et en dollar, utilisés comme indicateurs par excellence et le coussin de fond propre contra cyclique causent la stabilité financière. Cela justifie une adoption ...
The need to strengthen the macro-prudential orientation of regulatory and supervisory arrangements remains a priority for sound financial and real health. Financial stability is threatened by endogenous and exogenous risks reflecting crises, which require sound regulation to reduce risks. Macro-prudential policy has proved to be better financial regulation by reducing systemic risk. We question the adoption of a macro-prudential framework for financial stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The countercyclical buffer is strongly correlated with financial stability. This justifies the implementation of a prudential macro framework. The causality analysis has highlighted the effect of macro-prudential policy on financial stability. The mandatory reserve coefficients in Congolese franc and dollar, used as indicators by excellence, and the countercyclical own-fund buffer cause financial stability. This justifies the adoption of a prudential macro-prudential framework in RDC.Finally, we proposed a better governance framework for a macro-prudential policy in the DRC. The game must be cooperative but flexible with monetary policy, i.e. creating a directorate-general or an autonomous macro-prudential institution. However, monetary policy must have a veto over this Directorate-General for Financial Stability. ; International audience The need to strengthen the macro prudential orientation of financial regulatory and supervisory frameworks stays a priority for financial and real healthy. Stability financial threatened with endogenous and exogenous risks translating crises, hence it has to a healthy regulation for the reduction risks. Macro prudential policy proves to be a best regulation for limiting systemic risk. We wonder about adoption a framework macro prudential for stability financial in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The correlation between countercyclical capital buffer and stability financial justify to make use of framework macro prudential. The causality analysis put in light the effect ...
j'assume la responsabilité de ce document de travail ; Financial system being the place of metting capital flows (equality between saving and investment), a volatility of capital flows can destroy the robustness and good working of financial system, it means subvert financial stability. The same a weak financial system, few regulated and bad manage can exacerbate volatility of capital flows and finely undermine financial stability. The present study provides evidence on feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability in Democratic republic of Congo (DRC), and estimate the contributions of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies in the attenuation volatility of capital flows effects on financial stability and in the prevention of instability financial. Assessment dynamic regression model a la Feldstein-Horioka we showed that financial system is widely supplied and financed by internationals capital flows. This implicate Congolese economy is financially mobile, that can be dangerous for financial stability. The study dynamic econometric of financial system's absolute size, we stipulate financial system has a systemic weight on real economy. Hence a shock of financial system could have devastating effects on Congolese economy. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for prove the bilateral causality and impacts of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. With regard to results, it proved on the one there is a feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability, on the other hand macroeconomic and macroprudential policies can't attenuate volatility of capital flows and prevent instability financial. It prove macroprudential approach is given a better result than monetary policy. The implementation of framework macroprudential by Central Bank of Congo will be beneficial in the realization of financial stability and attenuation volatility of capital flows.Keywords: Volatility of capital flows, financial stability, macroeconomic and macroprudential ...
The ability of a central bank to influence the economy depends on its ability to manage the expectations of the general public and the financial system regarding the future development of macroeconomic indicators. The communication strategy (in this time of crisis and uncertainty) increases transparency, improves public understanding and support for the monetary policy and democratic accountability of the Central Bank of Congo (BCC), which serves to convergence towards the balance of expectations. This paper approves that a strategic communication orientation, focused on coherent messages, can help break down pessimistic expectations, maintain confidence, reduce the cost of the crisis and stabilize the economy. In conclusion, the article suggests a dozen recommendations, to be able to strengthen and redirect the BCC's communication strategy and contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy. ; La capacité d'une banque centrale à influer sur l'économie dépend de sa capacité à gérer les anticipations du grand public et du système financier quant à l'évolution future des indicateurs macroéconomiques. La stratégie de communication (en ce temps de crise et d'incertitude) accroît la transparence, améliore la compréhension et le soutien du grand public à la politique monétaire et à la responsabilité démocratique de la Banque centrale du Congo (BCC), servant à la convergence vers l'équilibre des anticipations. Ce papier approuve qu'une orientation stratégique de communication, axée sur des messages cohérents, peut contribuer à briser les anticipations pessimistes, maintenir la confiance, réduire le coût de la crise et stabiliser l'économie. En conclusion l'article suggère une douzaine des recommandations, pour pouvoir renforcer et réorienter la stratégie de communication de la BCC et contribuer à l'efficacité de la politique monétaire.
