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This discussion paper provides an overview how Parties could reflect explicitly in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) their contribution to the global efforts on mitigation that they agreed to during the Global Stocktake (GST) at ⁠UNFCCC⁠ COP28. A table provides an overview of measures that directly relate to the global efforts agreed in the Global Stocktake on mitigation and also lists indicators that could be used to track progress. It also highlights opportunities where Parties can be more ambitious to achieve the required deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

Current actions to mitigate climate change are highly insufficient to keep the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement within reach. It will be key for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement to formulate clear messages on increasing mitigation action. These messages should be concise, name specific actions and targets, and inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions. Key mitigation actions are suggested to cover renewable energy, energy efficiency and sufficiency, the phasing out of fossil fuels and related subsidies, actions in transport, buildings and industry, circular material flows, the reduction of methane emissions, actions in the land sector and sustainable food systems. The proposed mitigation actions and targets could be included as key messages in the cover decision of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). Targets could also be included in declarations as part of the Global Stocktake outputs. Finally, additional information on key mitigation actions could be provided in a technical annex. The messages on mitigation need to address both the time horizon until 2030 to avert catastrophic climate change and the time horizon until 2035 for new NDCs.

The first global stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement will be concluded at the end of 2023, and Parties and non-Party stakeholders are invited to submit their views on the approach to its final phase. The political phase of the GST could be organised by thematic area as defined by the GST, i.e., covering mitigation (including response measures); adaptation (including loss and damage); and finance flows, means of implementation and support. Alternatively, the political phase could be structured by sector. Both options are suitable for, inter alia, engaging non-Party stakeholders, taking into account equity and the best available science and incorporating the results of the technical phase of the GST. Organising the political phase by thematic area possibly facilitates high-level participation and visibility, while organising this phase by sector may facilitate the information of Parties in enhancing their NDCs in specific sectors. For the outputs of the GST, several options are possible, including the cover decision, political declarations or sectoral commitments, one or several CMA decisions, and a technical annex. Several of these options can be combined. A CMA decision, combined with a technical annex and sectoral commitments, may be most suitable for conveying specific, practicable guidance on enhancing ambition and implementation.

This paper discusses strategies to enhance the impact of the Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement on climate change. Analyzing previous international and national policy processes, the study offers key recommendations for leveraging the GST's outcomes for future climate policies, especially in the context of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The paper emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts to ensure that the results of the GST influence national political discourse. It proposes differentiated communication strategies tailored to various stages of the NDC policy process and diverse target audiences. These recommendations include forming messaging coalitions, simplifying messages for the agenda-setting stage, and employing more comprehensive approaches to the policy formulation and decision-making stages. The study draws from examples like the UNFCCC First Periodic Review and national efforts like the French Citizens Climate Assemblies. These examples offer insights into successful and unsuccessful approaches of transferring scientific results into political action. The paper advocates for a nuanced and strategic approach to communication and emphasizes the importance of legitimacy and complexity in engaging stakeholders at different levels of decision-making.

The Global Stocktake, a key component of the Paris Agreement's ratchet mechanism, assesses global progress every five years with the goal of informing countries' NDC updates. In this analysis, we demonstrate how global progress across a range of sectoral emission indicators can be assessed using performance distributions to allow for a detailed and nuanced analysis without singling out individual countries. We demonstrate the possible use cases, and present some initial insights, using trends in sectoral GHG emissions per capita. The display as a performance distribution can be used to understand the spread in changes across countries, to explore progress over time, and to demonstrate what rates of decarbonisation are possible.

The principle of equity plays an important role in the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. Equity is considered in the assessment of where Parties stand collectively, and the Global Stocktake informs Parties how they can increase ambition and address equity in their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This paper discusses several concepts which can guide the distribution of mitigation efforts, adaptation actions, and means of implementation and support, namely the concepts of responsibility, capabilities, egalitarianism and sufficientarianism. The application of one concept only may not be sufficient to ensure equitable and ambitious climate action. In all areas of climate action, it is critical to take into account individual capabilities, which are different from country to country. It is important to use all available capabilities and opportunities and to increase them. Support plays a critical role in enhancing and facilitating the use of available capabilities. The outputs and outcomes of the Global Stocktake should address the importance of building trust and making a convincing case that a Party's response to climate change, including its new NDC, is fair and ambitious. In their new NDC targets, Parties should take into account their contribution to climate change, e.g., measured in greenhouse gas emissions per capita. In addition, Parties with high capabilities (e.g., measured in gross domestic product per capita) should make use of their resources to pursue ambitious climate action and to provide support to Parties with limited capabilities.

The Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement periodically assesses the collective progress towards achieving the long-term goals of the Agreement. A project commissioned by the German Environment Agency accompanied all phases of the first GST, focussing on the thematic area of mitigation. An analysis of inputs for the GST highlighted that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with pathways consistent with 1.5°C global warming. Collectively, Parties will not achieve their NDC targets with the mitigation actions which are currently implemented and planned. In order to be able to formulate and achieve more ambitious targets, transformative mitigation actions need to be implemented, covering the sectors energy, transport, industry, agriculture, land use and waste. It will be important for policy makers to consider different audiences, channels, messages and tone when communicating the need for such enhanced action.

Folgende Politikempfehlungen für die Bundesregierung stellen die Gasversorgung für den Winter 2022 und darüber hinaus sicher, ohne dabei die Klimaschutzziele aus den Augen zu verlieren. Damit Flüssiggas eine Übergangslösung wird und die Gasversorgung möglichst klimaschonend verläuft, sind zentrale Ergebnisse im zweiten Kapitel die Gasleitungsinfrastruktur in Europa optimaler zu nutzen, die Wasserstofffähigkeit der LNG-Terminals herzustellen und durch eine möglichst nachhaltige Suche neuer Lieferländer zu diversifizieren. Der schnelle Wasserstoffhochlauf in Stahl- und Chemieindustrie kann die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Deutschlands sichern. Wie die Krise zu bewältigen ist durch Einsparungen von Gas- und Energieverbrauch, beispielsweise über verbindliche Sektor-Reduzierungsziele und eine zielsichere und passgenau Energiesparkampagne, wird im dritten Kapitel diskutiert. Durch wenige Handgriffe kann außerdem der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien weiterhin beschleunigt werden und somit gleichzeitig die Krise mildern und die ambitionierten Klimaschutzziele erreicht werden. UBA stellt außerdem große Einsparpotenziale für die Industrie fest, wenn gasintensive Produkte kreislauffähiger gestaltet werden. Den Blick im vierten Kapitel auf die Lieferländer und Deutschlands Rolle im Geflecht der internationalen Energiekrise wendend, werden Vorschläge unterbreitet wie fossile lock-ins bei Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern vermieden werden können, bspw. durch Klimaklubs und globale Klimaneutralität durch Senken und negative Emissionen erreicht werden kann.

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this project was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. While there are several tools that analyse NDCs, they are comprehensive, concise, replicable and comparable to a varying degree. Our methodology aims to fill a gap by addressing those criteria and providing new insights into the design of NDCs. We evaluate the NDCs along key elements that are critical for the success of the NDC ambition cycle: 1. Increased mitigation ambition; 2. Comprehensiveness; 3. Implementation plan; and 4. Transparency. We have applied this methodology to 20 NDCs with the aim to include a diversity of geographic contexts as well as NDCs with different emphasis, target types, and approaches to climate change mitigation. The analysis shows that the selected countries fare generally well on comprehensiveness and transparency in their new NDCs. The rules under the Paris Agreement on what to include in the NDC and how to describe it show a positive effect; most countries provide the information necessary according to the rules. However, the elements that are critical for the success of the ambition cycle, i.e. raising ambition in each round and having a plan to implement the targets, are only partially covered by many countries. Of the analysed NDCs, less than half showed higher mitigation ambition compared to their first NDC. Many targets remained unchanged or were found to be less ambitious due to changes in parameters such as baseline emissions. Many countries lack a clear implementation plan for the targets: In many cases measures have not yet been included in national legislation, but preparations are underway especially for those countries that increased their targets. Currently, governments can make their NDCs "look good" by fulfilling all requirements on comprehensiveness and transparency, but only a deeper analysis reveals that their NDCs are not more ambitious or lack an implementation plan. To uncover such deficiencies and to make the ambition cycle of the Paris Agreement a success, a careful checking of NDCs is necessary.

Mit dem Übereinkommen von Paris (ÜvP) wurde ein Prozess der globalen Bestandsaufnahme ("Global Stocktake", GST) als wichtiger Schutzmechanismus eingeführt, der die Anschärfung der NDCs im Hinblick auf die Erreichung der kollektiven Ziele des Abkommens erleichtern soll. Dieses Papier untersucht die Fragen, wie ein wirksamer GST-Prozess aussehen könnte, und welche Informationen und Daten zu seiner Unterstützung benötigt werden. Wir identifizieren vier Funktionen, die ein wirksamer GST erfüllen sollte: Er sollte als Schrittmacher der politischen Prozesse fungieren, die Rechenschaftspflicht der Länder gewährleisten, verstärkte Ambitionen von zukünftigen NDCs vorantreiben und Leitlinien und Signale für ein erneuertes Engagement für die Ziele des Pariser Abkommens geben. Der GST sollte sich dabei auf umfassende Informationen stützen, die in direktem Bezug zu Politiken und Maßnahmen stehen. Der Transparenzrahmen des ÜvP soll dazu qualitativ hochwertige und umfassende Informationen liefern. Sein Beitrag ist jedoch begrenzt, da er erst ab 2024 in Kraft tritt und auch weiterhin mit lückenhafter Berichterstattung zu rechnen ist. Somit sollten zusätzliche Informationsquellen für den GST genutzt werden. Der IPCC könnte dazu beitragen, diese Informationen zu legitimieren und zusammenzutragen. Zu den wichtigsten Herausforderungen bei der Bewertung des kollektiven Fortschritts durch den GST gehören Datenlücken bei der Quantifizierung und Aggregation der Emissionen und das eingeschränkte Mandat des GST zur Beurteilung des kollektiven Fortschritts. Vor diesem Hintergrund bewerten wir das Potenzial und die Grenzen des GST zur Erfüllung der vier oben beschriebenen Funktionen. Der UNFCCC-Prozess könnte seine Wirksamkeit maximieren, indem er (1) eine öffentliche Bewertung der Inputs vorsieht, (2) den in diesem Projekt entwickelten Ansatz zur Darstellung des Fortschritts zur Minderung von Emissionen anwendet, (3) in den strukturierten Expertendialogen eine detaillierte Erörterung von sektor-spezifischen Problemen vorsieht und (4) den IPCC auffordert, sich zum Stand der Forschung im Hinblick auf die Festlegung von Benchmarks für Emissionsminderung zu äußern. Die offizielle GST sollte durch unabhängige Aktivitäten der Zivilgesellschaft und der akademischen Gemeinschaft ergänzt und unterstützt werden.

Die klimapolitischen Anstrengungen in verschiedenen Teilen von Politik, Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft weisen in die richtige Richtung und stellen wichtige Weichen für einen ambitionierten ⁠Klimaschutz⁠ in Deutschland. Ein Scheitern ist in der Umsetzung jedoch weiterhin möglich, besonders solange Klimaschutz nicht als gesellschaftliche Transformationsaufgabe verstanden wird. Da eine fortwährende Gestaltung der Transformation unerlässlich ist, wird gefragt welche Fallstricke für einen ambitioniert angegangenen Klimaschutz bestehen und welche Bedingungen das Gelingen ermöglichen. Klimaschutz als Transformationsaufgabe zu verstehen, weitet den Blick für eine vernetzte Problemlösung. Auf diese kennen bisherige klimapolitische Strategien kaum Antworten. Viele implementierte Klimaschutzmaßnahmen und ‑instrumente zeigen Folgewirkungen und lösen neue Aushandlungsprozesse in der Gesellschaft aus. Einige dieser Dynamiken werden explorativ anhand der Dimensionen Zeit, Individuum, Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft, Wechselwirkungen zu anderen Umweltbereichen und Globalisierung diskutiert und auf konkrete Fallstricke bezogen. Lösungsansätze - von ersten Debattenanstößen bis hin zu konkreten Umsetzungsoptionen - existieren bereits in zahlreichen Fällen, wie dieses Papier zeigt.