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In this brief, we focus on the effects of COVID-19 on hunger in sub-Saharan Africa, the region where undernourishment is most prevalent in the world and where the rates of increase are also greatest (FAO et al., 2020). Hunger tends to be concentrated in rural populations, whose livelihoods, incomes, and food security depend heavily on agriculture. In 2014, in the Malabo Declaration, African governments committed to ending hunger on the continent by 2025 through agriculture-led growth, integrating social protection programs and increasing agricultural productivity. The integration of social protection is critical to realizing this ambition, as economic growth alone will not eliminate deep-rooted inequalities and extreme poverty. The evidence shows that the greater the inequality in asset distribution (such as land, water, capital, finance, education, and health), the less likely it is for poor households to benefit from economic growth (FAO et al., 2019). People living in poverty face many constraints that prevent their taking advantage of the opportunities created by economic growth; social protection policies or programs designed to reduce poverty and vulnerability can help. Despite its importance, however, social protection coverage remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa, where, on average, fewer than 20% of households have access to some form of social protection, compared to 70% of households in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2016).

The UN 2030 Agenda commits governments to evidence-based decision-making (UN General Assembly, 2015). This approach requires efforts to find and catalogue the evidence, then developing methods to analyze and synthesize it. It also means understanding the feasibility of whichever interventions the government identifies, taking into account the policy landscape in which the decision-maker operates. Policy interventions require political support among competing interests in the context of meeting both short- and long-term objectives. Motivated by the need to support tools for evidence-based policy-making, three partner organizations—Cornell University, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)—formed a three-year partnership in 2018 called Ceres2030:Sustainable Solutions to End Hunger. The project is designed to support global development donors to increase the amount and improve the efcacy of their investment of public funds in improving food security and sustainability outcomes ; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation, Germany

COVID-19 and the measures governments have put in place to prevent its aggravation have triggered an economic recession that will increase poverty rates and hunger. In June, the International Monetary Fund projected a 4.9% decline in global economic growth compared to 20191. A similar forecast has been generated under Ceres2030, a research project co-directed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, Cornell University and the International Institute for Sustainable Development that is calculating the cost of effective interventions to end hunger sustainably. The estimate is that 95 million additional people, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, will be living in extreme poverty by the end of the year. ; IFPRI3; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; CRP2; Ceres2030 ; AFR; PIM ; Non-PR ; CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

In response to the global commitment to rid the world of hunger, Ceres2030 partnered with Nature Research to answer two linked questions: First, what does the published evidence tell us about agricultural interventions that work, in particular to double the incomes of small-scale producers and to improve environmental outcomes for agriculture? And second, what will it cost governments to end hunger, double the incomes of small-scale producers, and protect the climate by 2030? The project focuses on three of the five targets in the second sustainable development goal (SDG 2, Zero Hunger) and looks at the public spending needed in low- and middle-income countries, including the contribution from donors through official development assistance (ODA) (Laborde et al., 2020). This report answers the second question. The answer to the first question is published as a special collection of Nature Research. This report is published alongside a complementary research project by the Centre for Development Research (ZEF) and the FAO that also identifies high-impact, cost-effective interventions to address the challenges of SDG 2. The use of different research approaches and methodologies helps to identify levels of coherence and strengthens the credibility of proposed policy actions and investments. The approaches show results that are consistent and compatible, confirming that between now and 2030 donors need to double their efforts (von Braun et al., 2020). ; Non-PR ; IFPRI5; Ceres2030; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CRP2 ; MTID; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Governments have 10 years to take back control of their bold agenda. Ceres2030 was an experiment designed to help with the challenge. The project team, employing a complex and rigorous economic model and cutting-edge machine-learning tools, made a partnership with Nature Research that focused on answers to two linked questions: First, what does the published evidence tell us about agricultural interventions that work, in particular to double the incomes of small-scale producers and to improve environmental outcomes for agriculture? And second, what will it cost governments to end hunger, double the incomes of small-scale producers, and protect the climate by 2030? The project focuses on three of the five targets in the second sustainable development goal (SDG 2) and looks at the public spending needed in low- and middle-income countries, including the contribution from donors through official development assistance (ODA). ; IFPRI5; Ceres2030; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; MTID ; Non-PR