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AbstractThis paper modifies the Acemoglu–Robinson model of the economic basis of democracy to discuss the impact of the international regime regulating capital flows on the consolidation and quality of democracy. Two regimes of capital mobility are considered, Bretton Woods and Rodrik's hyperglobalization, in an international economy formed by an advanced North and a developing South. The model shows that hyperglobalization compromises the stability of democracy in the South by limiting the ability of the citizens to tax the elite and provide public goods which are critical for technical change and income distribution. At variance with the mainstream results, it is argued that financial globalization is a barrier to democratic consolidation. The model is consistent with key findings of the empirical literature on globalization and democracy, as well as with evidence from the economic history of Latin America.

AbstractThis article analyses the variables shaping economic relations between Argentina and Brazil in the 1939–5 5 period, namely changes in the international economy, bilateral trade, the industrial structure and domestic politics. It is argued that although rivalry prevailed in most of the period this was qualified by the interest of Argentina and Brazil in securing the gains from trade and in enhancing their position in the international system. The balance of these contending forces was a pattern of limited or restrained cooperation. If significant trade concessions were offered, their institutional framework remained unstable and fragile. This was reflected in the uncertainty that plagued bilateral trade and in the failure of more ambitious initiatives aimed at economic integration, as those proposed in the Pinedo Plan and in the economic union agreements of 1953–54.

Este artículo busca integrar en un marco analítico único las tres dimensiones del desarrollo sostenible, a saber, la económica, la social y la ambiental. Para ello se construye un modelo de tres brechas en la tradición estructuralista, donde se definen y contrastan tres tasas de crecimiento: la tasa máxima compatible con el equilibrio externo, la tasa máxima compatible con los compromisos ambientales asumidos por la región, y la tasa mínima necesaria para lograr niveles crecientes de igualdad. Se simulan escenarios de políticas mediante el modelo E3ME de Cambridge Econometrics, un modelo macroeconométrico de los sistemas socioeconómico, energético y ambiental. Los ejercicios de simulación confirman la importancia clave de combinar las políticas industrial y tecnológica con las de protección social a fin de promover el crecimiento y el empleo formal, junto con el desacoplamiento de las emisiones y la caída de la desigualdad. Una gobernanza internacional que favorezca la reducción de asimetrías tecnológicas y amplíe los espacios de política en la periferia es necesaria para avanzar hacia un nuevo estilo de desarrollo.

AbstractThis paper discusses the economic performance of three Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay) from a comparative perspective, using as a benchmark a group of four developed countries (France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). The focus is on the relative performance within the region and between the Latin American countries and the developed countries in the period 1900–1980. The paper argues that Argentina and Uruguay benefited from a privileged position in international markets at the beginning of the 20thcentury and this allowed them to converge. However, they failed to adjust to the major long-run change in the pattern of world trade brought about by World War I and the Great Depression, which implied a persistent decline of their export markets. On the other hand, Brazil, after having been much less successful until 1930, grew at higher rates thereafter based on rapid structural change and the building up of competitive advantages in new industrial sectors. The more vigorous Brazilian policy for industrialization and export diversification may explain why Brazil succeeded in changing its pattern of specialization, while Argentina and Uruguay were locked in to the old pattern. A typology of convergence regimes is suggested based on the growth experience of these countries.

O objetivo deste trabalho é elaborar um modelo teórico sobre o papel dos déficits estruturais em transações correntes e da capacidade limitada de absorção de ativos externos como elementos presentes em crises cambiais de economias emergentes. O modelo terá como refe-rência as recentes crises ocorridas na América Latina, especificamente a crise mexicana de 1994 e brasileira de 1999. Pretende-se, portanto, incorporar ao debate algumas especificidades da região que têm sido negligenciadas, ou incorporadas de forma apenas parcial, pela literatura estabelecida sobre crises cambiais. O modelo deverá ilustrar o argumento de que as causas para os recentes ataques especulativos na região encontram vinculações - além dos aspectos financeiros destacados pela literatura estabelecida - com o grau de competiti-vidade externa da economia e seu grau de desenvolvimento tecnológico.

O artigo discute, sob uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, o impacto do regime de metas de inflação sobre o crescimento, a distribuição e a estabilidade em uma economia aberta. O modelo combina a barganha salarial, as variações na capacidade utilizada e o equilíbrio em conta corrente para mostrar que a política monetária tem um impacto real sobre o crescimento e o emprego no longo prazo - i.e. existe um trade-off entre inflação e crescimento. São analisadas as implicações de uma regra de política monetária que leva em conta o equilíbrio em conta corrente. Mostra-se que esta regra poderia ser importante para sustentar a estabilidade no longo prazo, na medida em que evita a possibilidade de aumentos explosivos no estoque da dívida externa.

This paper presents a set of growth and distribution models in developing countries which reflect distinct political economy regimes. These regimes give rise to different institutional frameworks that affect macroeconomic outcomes. We focus on three cases: (1) a pure developmentalist state, (2) conflicting claims between workers and the government, and (3) financialization under a neoliberal coalition. The equilibrium growth rate is defined, following the Keynesian tradition in open economy growth model, by the Balance-of-Payments constraint (Thirlwall, 1979). The paper relies on cumulative causation à la Kaldor in periods in which the depreciation of the real exchange rate raises temporarily the BOP-constrained equilibrium rate of growth. The transition between one equilibrium level of the RER to another allows (under certain conditions) for a process of learning that transforms the income elasticity of exports and hence the BOP-constrained rate of growth in the long run. The model produces a variety of outcomes that help explain the contradictory results reported in the empirical literature associated with different constellations of power and institutions.