Suchergebnisse

Nous proposons une analyse simple du cycle économique dans un modèle où les travailleurs employés comme les chômeurs cherchent des emplois en présence de frictions d'appariement. Une hiérarchie des emplois découle de leurs productivités hétérogènes. Les entreprises se font concurrence à la Bertrand pour attirer les travailleurs, suivant le protocole d'enchères séquentielles de Postel-Vinay et Robin [2002]. La recherche en emploi (REE) amplifie et propage les chocs agrégés par trois voies : 1) une plus grande élasticité de la fonction d'appariement en présence de REE ; 2) une différence de rendements à l'embauche entre chômeurs et employés, dont les proportions varient naturellement au cours du cycle ; 3) la lente réallocation des travailleurs par REE vers des emplois plus productifs, qui engendre une évolution endogène des rendements à l'embauche .

Abstract
We combine information from the British Household Panel Study and the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (also known as Understanding Society) to construct consistent time series of aggregate worker stocks, worker flows and earnings in the United Kingdom over the period 1992–2017. We propose a method to harmonise data between the British Household Panel Study and United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study, which we validate by checking the consistency of some of our headline time series with equivalent series produced from other sources, notably by the Office for National Statistics. In addition to drawing a detailed aggregate picture of the United Kingdom labour market over the past two and a half decades, we use our constructed data set to compare the impact of industry, occupation and employer tenure on wages in the United Kingdom. We find that returns to occupation tenure are substantial. All else equal, five years of occupation tenure are associated with a 3.3% increase in wages. We also find that industry tenure plays a non-negligible part in driving wage growth.

We construct a structural model of on-the-job search in which workers differ in skills along several dimensions and sort themselves into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those same dimensions. Skills are accumulated when used, and depreciate when not used. We estimate the model combining data from O*NET with the NLSY79. We use the model to shed light on the origins and costs of mismatch along heterogeneous skill dimensions. We highlight the deficiencies of relying on a unidimensional model of skill when decomposing the sources of variation in the value of lifetime output between initial conditions and career shocks. (JEL J24, J41, J64)

We study the cyclical comovement nominal wage growth (either monthly earnings or hourly wage rate) and labor market flows. We use microdata from the Survey of Income and Program Participation over 1996-2013 to purge composition effects in worker and job characteristics and to isolate the reallocative effect of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions. We find an "EE wage Phillips curve": wage inflation comoves positively with EE as strongly as with the employment rate. This correlation holds for job stayers; we interpret the EE rate as a measure of labor demand. We find no analogous evidence for the job-finding rate from unemployment.

The canonical model of job search and wage posting (Burdett and Mortensen, 1998) establishes a natural connection between the average wage growth in the economy and the pace of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, predicting wage growth to be positively related to the pace of EE reallocation for all workers, but especially for stayers. We verify this empirically both with aggregate time series and with longitudinal micro data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We argue that monetary authorities concerned with inflationary wage pressure should pay more attention directly to EE reallocation and less to the unemployment rate.

We document a negative correlation, at business cycle frequencies, between the net job creation rate of large employers and the level of aggregate unemployment that is much stronger than for small employers. The differential growth rate of employment between initially large and small employers has an unconditional correlation of —0.5 with the unemployment rate, and varies by about 5 percent over the business cycle. We exploit several datasets from the United States, Denmark, and France, both repeated cross sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information, spanning the last four decades and several business cycles. We discuss implications for theories of factor demand. (JEL D22, E23, E32, J23, L25)