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The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy
In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust. ; peer-reviewed
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The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy
In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
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The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy
In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure test-trace-isolate-support becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust. Copyright (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. ; Funding Agencies|European UnionEuropean Commission [101016233]; Max Planck SocietyMax Planck SocietyFoundation CELLEX; "Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin" (NUM) project egePan [01KX2021]; Digital Society research program - Ministry of Culture and Science of the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia; University of Malta; Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) as part of the COVID-19 Fast-Track research project Cov-Screen [COVID-19/2020- 1/14715687]; European Research Council (ERC) under the European UnionEuropean Research Council (ERC) [863664]; Slovenian Research AgencySlovenian Research Agency - Slovenia [P1-0403, J1-2457]; University of Crete; Maastricht University; European CommissionEuropean CommissionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre; UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)UK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) [ES/T014164/1]; UK Medical Research Council (MRC)UK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Medical Research Council UK ...
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The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19
In: Gurdasani , D , Bear , L , Bogaert , D , Burgess , R A , Busse , R , Cacciola , R , Charpak , Y , Colbourn , T , Drury , J , Friston , K , Gallo , V , Goldman , L , Greenhalgh , T , Hyde , Z , Kuppalli , K , Majumder , M , Martin-Moreno , J M , McKee , M , Michie , S , Mossialos , E , Nouri , A , Pagel , C , Pimenta , D , Popescu , S , Priesemann , V , Rasmussen , A L , Reicher , S , Ricciardi , W , Rice , K , Silver , J , Smith , T C , Wenham , C , West , R , Yarney , G , Yates , K & Ziauddeen , H 2020 , ' The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19 ' , The Lancet , vol. 396 , no. 10265 , pp. 1800-1801 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3
The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.
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