Russia's Interests in the Post-Soviet Space: Modern Challenges and Responses
In: Russia and New States of Eurasia, Heft 1, S. 9-20
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In: Russia and New States of Eurasia, Heft 1, S. 9-20
In: Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta: naučnyj recenziruemyj žurnal = MGIMO review of international relations : scientific peer-reviewed journal, Band 4, Heft 61, S. 262-268
ISSN: 2541-9099
In: Вестник Пермского университета. Политология, Heft 3, S. 5-18
In: International Organisations Research Journal, Band 14, Heft 3, S. 117-135
ISSN: 2542-2081
In: THE CASPIAN REGION: Politics, Economics, Culture, Band 60, Heft 3, S. 073-078
In: Russia in global affairs, Band 21, Heft 4, S. 10-23
The article addresses a set of problems pertaining to nuclear deterrence, strategic stability, and missile defense. The author states that as a derivative of nuclear deterrence strategic stability can only be applied to military-strategic relations between Russia and the United States. This concept "does not work" in all other cases, including the multilateral format of relations. Nuclear deterrence is more universal and impacts, among other things, the decision-making process in relatively strong and weak nuclear states that oppose each other. The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is not determined solely by the balance of opposing forces. No less important is the assessment by a potential aggressor of all the negative consequences of its decision to strike first, which creates the "self-deterrence" effect that outweighs even the aggressor's absolute confidence in the complete military success of its nuclear attack. The author also insists that missile defense is undeservedly considered a "destabilizing" weapons system, because the baseline scenario involving a massive exchange of nuclear strikes, which is used for estimating the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and the level of strategic stability, is completely far-fetched.
In: Contemporary Europe, Band 106, Heft 6, S. 63-74
ISSN: 0201-7083
The article examines the introduction of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of the EU economy decarbonization. The implementation of this initiative poses certain risks for the EU trading partners. Moreover, this issue is extremely important for the entire global trading system. The purpose of the study is to assess the real threats of the mechanism for Russian companies and identify opportunities for successful adaptation to the new green realities. The theoretical approaches and prerequisites for the CBAM introduction are analyzed, its systemic effects for companies around the world are shown. The channels and possible scale of this measure's impact on Russian exporters are considered. The authors analyze the main possible response scenarios for Russia. The most promising scenarios could be: a) intensification of the carbon-free energy and increasing the energy efficiency of production processes, 2) development of an alternative compensatory mechanism, 3) integration into the regional emissions trading system. A possible challenge of the CBAM introduction in the WTO may be ineffective; cooperation with countries outside the "green agenda" – counterproductive. It is concluded that there are opportunities for Russian companies to strengthen their competitiveness due to CBAM requirements. However, there is a lack of expertise in a number of areas and levels, which can hinder the implementation of these opportunities.
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 22, Heft 4, S. 79-87
ISSN: 2618-7914
The COVID-19 epidemic has become a major challenge for Germany. The authors set a goal to analyze how the German government solves the problems facing the country at the national and European levels, as well as to identify how public attitudes are changing under the influence of the pandemic. In the first part the rate of spread of the pandemic and the effectiveness of German restrictive measures were analyzed. It was concluded that during the first period of the spread of the virus, optimistic assessments of its success in the fight against the pandemic prevailed in Germany, but during the second wave, the FRG authorities faced significant difficulties. The authors also looked in detail at the economic damage from the pandemic. The second part of the study is devoted to changing public attitudes in society. The authors research in detail how the pandemic affects electoral preferences and make predictions about the upcoming elections to the Bundestag. Particular attention is paid to the German policy against COVID-19 and minimizing the consequences of the pandemic at the European level. After the first isolationist reaction of the EU countries gave way to attempts to find a join set of measures, the FRG authorities are making significant efforts to come to a compromise that satisfies the majority of the members of the European Union
In: Contemporary Europe, Band 104, Heft 4, S. 83-94
ISSN: 0201-7083
The article outlines strategies of the largest European energy companies in the context of the EU climate policy aiming to accelerate the transition to a low carbon paradigm of development. For European oil and gas companies, the development of clean hydrogen projects is a natural policy since oil processing is the largest final consumer of hydrogen. Opportunities to increase production of new low-carbon energy sources are critical for European energy companies. It is concluded that hydrogen energy in Europe is developing in accordance with the algorithm previously applied in the sector of green renewable electricity. The driver of hydrogen projects is the political choice of the EU in favor of the green economy and decarbonization. Relatively high production costs allow companies to develop green hydrogen projects only relying on government support and large-scale subsidies from national and European budgets.
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 21, Heft 3, S. 110-109
ISSN: 2618-7914
The COVID-19 epidemic has become a major security challenge for Germany. The country was faced with the need to protect its own citizens, transform the health care system and support the economy. On the eve of the elections to the Bundestag, German elite concern how COVID-19 and restrictive measures will affect the electoral preferences of the population. At the same time, the pandemic has become a test for European solidarity. The first isolationist reaction of the EU member states gave way to attempts to find a solution at the supranational level. In a twopart article, the team of authors made an attempt to analyze how the German government solves the problems facing the country at the national and European levels, as well as to identify how citizens' moods change under the influence of the pandemic, what predictions can be made about the results of the upcoming elections to the Bundestag. The first part is devoted to German anti-virus policy, as well as a study of economic damage and measures to support the economy. The second will analyze the FRG's policy at the European level, as well as the impact of the pandemic on the mood in society and the political preferences of Germans.
In: Rossija i sovremennyj mir: problemy, mnenija, diskussii, sobytija, Heft 3, S. 6-26
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 15-25
ISSN: 2618-7914
The article is dedicated to the role of the United Kingdom in the political crisis and the armed conflict in Yemen which has not been settled until now. Special attention is paid to military and technical, diplomatic directions as well as to international development assistance in the British foreign policy towards this country. Study of these directions allowed to identify their interrelation and priority to the United Kingdom, to determine the British attitude towards the settlement of the Yemen conflict and to identify main British goals in this armed confrontation. It has been found that first of all the United Kingdom strives to address the terrorist threat originating from Yemen and to ensure free maritime traffic around it. All three mentioned areas of British foreign policy to a greater or lesser extent are aimed at this goal. As for the issue of the settlement of the Yemen conflict, the United Kingdom moved from unambiguous support for the official government of Yemen and the Arab coalition to the actual recognition of status-quo.
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 31-70
ISSN: 2618-7914
The article examines the budget crisis that occurred in Germany at the end of 2023. The results of the execution of the federal budget in terms of expenditures and net borrowings in 2022 are analyzed in comparison with the indicators of the five-year financial plan for 2022–2026, and the main deviations of the fact from the plan are identified. It is shown how the results of the 2022 budget led to an increase in the load on the 2023 budget from the point of view of the implementation of the purpose of renewing the debt brake set in the 2021–2025 Coalition Agreement. Further the events are presented that occurred during the crisis of 2023, which was caused by the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court on the incompetence of transferring net government borrowings from one year to other years (this transfer has been carried out by the ruling coalition in February 2022). Measures regarding the additional budget for 2023 and the new budget for 2024 are listed, that have been adopted by the government to implement the court verdict and return to the debt brake policy. The impact of the budget crisis on the accuracy of budget planning for 2024 is analyzed. The author comes to the conclusion: the results of 2024 will show an interruption in the barely begun post-pandemic restoration of the budget planning's reliability.
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 82-96
ISSN: 2618-7914
The article deals with the impact of the special relationship with the US on the three aspects of Danish foreign policy: the approach to the EU strategic autonomy, regional defence policy priorities, and Denmark's readiness to escalate relations with Russia. Using the method of qualitative content analysis of Danish foreign policy strategies, Copenhagen's current views on the alliance relations with the US are assessed, especially within the framework of Denmark's turn towards «pragmatic idealism» in foreign policy, which Denmark announced in May 2023, and scrapping the EU defence opt-out following the outcome of the June 2022 referendum. The analysis has shown that maintaining the status of an «exemplary» or «model» ally leads both to contradictions and ignoring traditional mores within the Danish political system and the skewed priorities in financing military and non-military instruments of the Danish foreign policy. Moreover, even in Denmark's military support of Ukraine, there is a gap between the symbolic value and practical effect of the measures taken by the Danish side. It is concluded that greater involvement in building the EU's strategic autonomy will reduce Denmark's interest in further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and its readiness for rhetorical and practical confrontation with Russia. At the same time, based on open sources, the U.S. is not exerting significant pressure on Copenhagen in connection with select gaps in compliance with the sanction regime. In case D. Trump is elected as the US president in the 2024 elections, Denmark, as one of the most pro-Atlantic EU member states, will probably face the acute task of linking the course of strategic autonomy with a broader vision of the future of transatlantic relations, as well as overcoming the dilemma between the concentration of defence capablities either in the Baltic Sea or in the North Atlantic and Arctic area including Greenland and the Faroe Islands.
In: Naučno-analitičeskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, Band 36, Heft 6, S. 108-120
ISSN: 2618-7914
Abstract. The article examines the social schisms existing in French society and the impact that these divisions had on the social climate and political processes in the country. The factors contributing to the formation of these imbalances are analyzed. It is shown that although the ruling circles have smoothed out the social consequences of numerous extraordinary events that took place during Macron's rule, they have not been able to mitigate the fundamental social divisions. The author comes to the conclusion that the abundance of deep social divisions in society leads to social instability, fragmentation of the political space and a significant increase in the influence of populist movements. Special attention is paid to the problems of increasing the degree of radicalism in the political arena and the degree of aggression and violence in society