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In: IMF Working Paper, p. 1-30
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In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Volume 14, Issue 1, p. 65-71
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Revue de l'OFCE, Volume 37, Issue 1, p. 245-272
Cet article étudie les implications de l'harmonisation fiscale européenne pour l'économie française à travers un modèle d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées. Ce modèle se situe dans la lignée des travaux d'Auerbach et Kotlikoff (1987) avec, toutefois, trois différences. Il décrit une économie ouverte ; certains ménages subissent une contrainte de liquidité ; la population est hétérogène avec des « riches » et des « pauvres » différenciés par leurs productivités et la fiscalité supportée. La principale conclusion de cette étude est, qu'une réduction de la TVA et des taxes sur les revenus de l'épargne, compensée par un accroissement de la fiscalité sur les salaires, pourrait générer des pertes de bien- être significatives pour les deux groupes de ménages. Ces résultats sont, finalement, comparés à ceux d'autres études, qui en utilisant des modèles d'inspiration néokeynésienne, débouchent sur des résultats opposés.
In: Revue de l'OFCE, Volume 24, Issue 1, p. 81-102
Liberation of Prices : a Solution for Employment ? Eric Bleuze, Michel Gilles, Thierry Pujol The article analyzes first the consequences of the liberation of the prices of the services most affected by international competition, and then analyses the macroeconomic impact of that liberation using both a neokeynesian model and the OFCE quarterly model. The restoration of margins following the total liberation of prices in services improved the profitability of this sector, which for several years had been declining. But, taking into consideration the behaviour of consumption, it seems unlikely to induce producers to increase capacity and employment very much. An econometric estimate suggests an increase of 10 000 in the number of jobs in catering and car repairing in 1987 following the liberation of prices. In the short term the impact on the consumer price index is limited (0.3 to 0.5 of a percentage point in 1987) and the transfer is mainly from households to the service producers. Over the medium term, developments will depend on several factors. With widespread indexation, as in France, where salaries follow prices and companies' prices are indexed on costs, the initial advantage obtained by services is slowly disappearing, unless there should be a break in indexation or a continuing increase in the prices of services. In this case the inflation rate would definitely increase. On the assumption of an initial shock to prices in services and close indexation of salaries to production prices, the liberation of prices in services would be likely to exert a depressive effect, the more so if the exchange rate is fixed (26 000 jobs lost at the dawn of 1990). Greater flexibility in the exchange rate would moderate this depressive impact of the decrease in competitiveness, but with more inflation.
In: Occasional papers Occasional paper no. 101
Spain's participation in European integration has strengthened its policymaking credibility and created an enviroment conducive to sustainable economic growth. Over the last decade, Spain has seen improvements in inflation, output, employment, and its balance of payments, and it has substantially reformed its product, labor, and financial markets. This paper reviews Spain's past economic performance and sees good prospects for further rises in living standards