Suchergebnisse

The tendencies and prospects of the Russian economy development as an energy net-exporter country are considered in the context of perspective supply-demand dynamics in the world energy markets. Medium- and long-term prospects of oil and gas prices dynamics as one of the key factors of economic growth in Russia in the post-crisis period are analyzed. It is shown that due to predicted slowing of the world energy demand growth rates and strengthening in this connection of the competition in the traditional Russian markets the dual Russian economy character (it is not only a producer, but also a rather intensive consumer of energy) makes the problem of internal economy diversification very urgent. A conclusion is made that it is necessary to carry out preventive measures aimed at accelerated transformation of the Russian gas sector (or in addition to the oil sector) into a major factor of economic growth.

Overall overview of current economic situation in Russia and in the world and possible scenarios of future economic development are presented in the paper. The analysis of GDP slowdown factors shows that the fall in excess inventories, accumulated in 2007—2008, accounts for more than 2/3 of GDP reduction in Russia. It is noted that instruments used by the government are weakening each other and do not allow to achieve internal and external equilibrium simultaneously in the future. Two possible anti-crisis economic policies (which are also behind the differences in two scenarios) are considered — countercyclical and anti inflation ones, their advantages and drawbacks are examined. The conclusion is made that countercyclical policy is now more favorable, which seems also to be a government choice. Nevertheless, anti-inflation policy directed to shrink monopolies power is necessary in both scenarios.

The inflation dynamics is a key factor in macroeconomic and social stability, having a direct impact on all structural proportions in the economy and the well-being of the population. This is especially noticeable during periods of acute shocks and crises. This article is an attempt to understand the inflationary consequences of the recent non-economic crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic. The global nature of this crisis, as well as its impact on all sectors of the economy and spheres of economic relations, provide rich material for the analysis. The geopolitical aggravation and large-scale sanctions against Russia in 2022 have become a new shock for the entire economic system, creating a trail of new inflationary effects at the global level and especially within Russia. The presence of a significant number of similarities between the two crises retains the relevance of a rigorous analysis of the coronacrisis and its lessons, despite the radical change in the situation due to the onset of the sanctions crisis.