Understanding migration drivers: methodology, sensitivity, and heterogeneity
Although fragmented by disciplinary boundaries, most migration theories tend to agree on the importance of economic factors in driving the flows of international migration. Nevertheless, empirically, the significance of economic factors is not unequivocal, which makes future mobility patterns difficult to foresee with certainty. This report seeks to understand what undermines the consistency of empirical findings from a methodological perspective. Specifically, we reviewed common approaches for estimating the migration responses to economic disparities, and found that the estimates are very sensitive to different model assumptions and specifications. We further derived a Flow Specific Common Correlated Effects (FSCCE) model. The model estimates revealed pervasive heterogeneity; the economic motives vary substantially depending on migrants' countries of origin and their choices of destination in the European Union.