Suchergebnisse

Trade is presumed to act as a catalyst of economic growth and
the growth in exports leads to increase in the incomes of factors of
production, which in turn increases the demand for input for further
expansion in production. The resultant pressure on domestic capacity may
stimulate technological change and investment opportunities. Also
increase in demand due to raising incomes of the factors of production
on account of exports may spill over into other sectors of the economy.
A part of such growths could also be diffused abroad through technical
assistance and aid. According to Emery (1967) empirically proved that
higher rates of exports growth leads to higher economic growth.
Traditionally, a developing country had the choice of two alternative
trade strategies for supporting industrial development, export promotion
or import substitution. A consensus has emerged among many development
economists that an export expansion policy by permitting resource
exploitation according to comparative advantage and by allowing for
utilisation and exploitation of economies of scale leads to higher
growth rates of output and employment, greater technological progress
and availability of foreign exchange. These in turn enable the countries
with export oriented policies to attain higher rates of growth of GNP
vis-à-vis countries following import substituting industrialisation
[Donges and Muller-Ohlsen (1978)].

This research study employs a gravity model to explore Pakistan's trade potential from 2000 to 2020. China, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia (KSA), Kuwait, United States (USA), Malaysia, Japan, India, Singapore, Afghanistan, Iran, Spain, Germany, United Kingdom (UK) and Belgium are among our significant trading partners. The study uses both static and dynamic econometric techniques to capture the trade potential of Pakistan. The findings from both methodologies are comparable, indicating that economic size and distance have a significant effect on bilateral trade. Furthermore, throughout the research period, political globalization is determined to be considerable and has an important influence on the economic masses. These factors support the theoretical model(s) that Pakistan and Pakistan's trading partners with economic integration, political globalization, and distance all depict a significant impact on trade relations.

The Pakistan Agricultural Sector Model (PASM) developed by
Davies et al. (1991) was modified to enhance the livestock sub-sector.
Nutrient-based rations replaced feedstuff-based rations and dry matter
minimum and maximum constraints (stomach capacity) were added. Several
initial simulations were undertaken to examine the structure of the
modified model and its impact across the crop and livestock sub-sectors.
These simulations included relaxing exogenous livestock numbers and
selected crop hectarage constraints, and requiring that green forage be
fed in the season grown. Most importantly, the results demonstrated that
fodder hectarage will grow with livestock numbers to insure that
sufficient green forage is available seasonally. Two other analyses were
performed to demonstrate the need to specify linkages between the crop
and livestock sub-sectors. An analysis of transforming the livestock
sub-sector from traditional to feedlot-based technology demonstrated
that the reduced numbers of non-milking cattle needed for a given output
of meat would provide the potential for increased production of various
crops and other livestock products. Also, expanded cotton and Irri rice
exports, hypothesised to occur through trade liberalisation from the
Uruguay Round of the GATT, highlighted other inter-relationships between
the crop and livestock sub-sectors. Greater production of both livestock
and other crops might accompany the expansion of cotton production but
less livestock feed would be available with expanded exports of Irri
rice.