Suchergebnisse

We provide a quantitative assessment of policy options to inform the 2021 review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and raise climate ambition. We use a permit trading model in which firms utilize rolling finite planning horizons, which replicates historical price and banking developments well compared to an in- finite horizon. When firms have bounded foresight, indirectly raising ambition through the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is not equivalent to directly raising ambition through the emissions cap trajectory. Leveraging the MSR turns out to be efficiency improving as it compensates for firms' bounded foresight by front- loading abatement efforts. We analyze the MSR interaction with the cap trajectory to exploit synergies and minimize the cost of raising ambition. We also provide a comparative assessment of a complete suite of changes in the MSR parameters. Whatever its parameters, MSR-induced resilience to demand shocks remains limited by design: the MSR acts more as an unconditional price support provider than as a responsive price stabilizer.

Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) are an important instsrument in regulating pollution and have a key role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. This dissertation has a twin focus: spatial linkages between ETSs at a point in time and intertemporal trading within an ETS.Linkages between ETSs are crucial for cost-effectiveness of the future climate policy architecture. Complete linkages, however, are difficult to agree and to date, few and far between. Here, our contribution is twofold. First, using a simple and unified model and drawing on experiences with real-world ETSs, we compare alternative trade restrictions on bilateral linkages in facilitating the transition to an unrestricted link. Second, we provide a general model to describe and analytically characterize the effects and gains from multilateral linkages under uncertainty. The model is then calibrated to historical emissions of real-world jurisdictions to illustrate the determinants of linkage preferences.ETSs are subject to regulatory uncertainty, which can disrupt dynamic cost-effectiveness and undermine their long-term price signal. The prevalence of regulatory uncertainty can be assimilated to a situation of ambiguity. Here, our contribution is to analyze regulated entities' intertemporal decisions under ambiguity aversion, characterize the induced distortions in market functioning, and discuss how these can help explain observations from existing ETSs. ; Les systèmes d'échange de quotas d'émission (SEQEs) sont un instrument de régulation environnementale important et ont un rôle clef à jouer dans la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pour l'atténuation du changement climatique. Cette thèse a une double orientation : les liaisons spatiales entre SEQEs d'une part et les échanges inter-temporels au sein d'un SEQE d'autre part.Les liaisons entre SEQEs peuvent aider à établir un futur cadre de politique climatique mondiale coût-efficient. Cependant, ces liaisons sont difficiles à mettre en place et à ce ...

Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) are an important instsrument in regulating pollution and have a key role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. This dissertation has a twin focus: spatial linkages between ETSs at a point in time and intertemporal trading within an ETS.Linkages between ETSs are crucial for cost-effectiveness of the future climate policy architecture. Complete linkages, however, are difficult to agree and to date, few and far between. Here, our contribution is twofold. First, using a simple and unified model and drawing on experiences with real-world ETSs, we compare alternative trade restrictions on bilateral linkages in facilitating the transition to an unrestricted link. Second, we provide a general model to describe and analytically characterize the effects and gains from multilateral linkages under uncertainty. The model is then calibrated to historical emissions of real-world jurisdictions to illustrate the determinants of linkage preferences.ETSs are subject to regulatory uncertainty, which can disrupt dynamic cost-effectiveness and undermine their long-term price signal. The prevalence of regulatory uncertainty can be assimilated to a situation of ambiguity. Here, our contribution is to analyze regulated entities' intertemporal decisions under ambiguity aversion, characterize the induced distortions in market functioning, and discuss how these can help explain observations from existing ETSs. ; Les systèmes d'échange de quotas d'émission (SEQEs) sont un instrument de régulation environnementale important et ont un rôle clef à jouer dans la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pour l'atténuation du changement climatique. Cette thèse a une double orientation : les liaisons spatiales entre SEQEs d'une part et les échanges inter-temporels au sein d'un SEQE d'autre part.Les liaisons entre SEQEs peuvent aider à établir un futur cadre de politique climatique mondiale coût-efficient. Cependant, ces liaisons sont difficiles à mettre en place et à ce ...

We develop an emission permits trading model where covered firms can (1) utilize rolling planning horizons to deal with uncertainty and (2) exhibit bounded responsiveness to supply-side control policies. We calibrate the model to reproduce annual market outcomes in the EU ETS over 2008–2018 and show that a rolling finite horizon reconciles the banking dynamics with discount rates implied by futures contracts' yield curves. It also replicates the price dynamics well compared to a standard infinite horizon, including the new price regime induced by the 2018 market reform. We then use our calibrated model to decompose the impacts of the 2018 reform's design elements, quantify how they hinge on the firms' horizon and responsiveness, and highlight important implications for policy design. For instance, when firms utilize rolling horizons, the Market Stability Reserve can improve effectiveness by frontloading abatement efforts and induce lower cumulative emissions compared to an infinite horizon.

We develop an equilibrium model of emissions permit trading in the presence of fixed and proportional trading costs in which the permit price and firms' participation in and extent of trading are endogenously determined. We analyze the sensitivity of the equilibrium to changes in the trading costs and firms' allocations, and characterize situations where the trading costs depress or raise permit prices relative to frictionless market conditions. We calibrate our model to annual transaction data in Phase II of the EU ETS (2008–2012) and find that trading costs in the order of 10 k€ per annum plus 1 € per permit traded substantially reduce discrepancies between observations and theoretical predictions for firms' behavior (e.g. autarkic compliance for small and/or long firms). Our simulations suggest that ignoring trading costs leads to an underestimation of the price impacts of supply-curbing policies, this difference varying with the incidence on firms.