Suchergebnisse

The objective of this work was to compare the actuarially fair social security rates for the General Social Welfare Policy (GSWP), based on the social security factor rules and the minimum age proposal present in Proposed Constitutional Amendment n. 287/2016. The demographic changes that have taken place in Brazil in recent years raise questions about the sustainability of the national social security system and approving social security reform has been a government priority. Therefore, there is an undisputed need for an actuarial study that calculates actuarially fair rates and compares the current scenario with the reform proposals. Multiple decrement actuarial models were used to calculate the fair rates considering a standard family (25-year-old worker, spouse, and two children), in which the man is three years older than the woman. The IBGE 2015 Extrapolated (mortality) and Álvaro Vindas (disability) tables were adopted as biometric assumptions, and a real wage growth rate of 2% p.a. and real interest rate of 3% p.a. were used. It has been shown that under the social security factor rule current contribution rates are insufficient to cover social security benefits, since the actuarially fair rates are 30.69% and 35.27% for men and women, respectively. However, if the social security reform were approved as submitted, the fair rates would be reduced to 22.25% and 21.60%, respectively. Besides the minimum age, part of this reduction is due to the proposed rules allowing pension values lower than the minimum wage. ; O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar as alíquotas previdenciárias atuarialmente justas para o Regime Geral de Previdência Social, tendo como base as regras do fator previdenciário e da proposta de idade mínima, presente na Proposta de Emenda à Constituição n. 287/2016. As mudanças demográficas ocorridas no Brasil nos últimos anos chamam a atenção para a questão da sustentabilidade do sistema previdenciário nacional, e aprovar a reforma previdenciária tem sido prioridade do governo. Logo, é indiscutível a necessidade de um estudo atuarial que viesse calcular alíquotas atuarialmente justas e comparar o atual cenário com as propostas de reforma. Utilizaram-se modelos atuariais com múltiplos decrementos para o cálculo das alíquotas justas, considerando uma família padrão [funcionário(a) de 25 anos, cônjuge e dois filhos], sendo o homem três anos mais velho que a mulher. Adotaram-se como premissas biométricas as tábuas IBGE 2015 – Extrapolada (mortalidade) e Álvaro Vindas (invalidez), a taxa real de crescimento salarial de 2% a.a. e a taxa real de juros de 3% a.a. Concluiu-se que, pela regra do fator previdenciário, as alíquotas vigentes são insuficientes para cobertura dos benefícios previdenciários, uma vez que as alíquotas atuarialmente justas são 30,69% e 35,27% para homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Contudo, caso a reforma da Previdência fosse aprovada em seu texto original, os percentuais justos seriam reduzidos para 22,25%, e 21,60%, respectivamente. Além da idade mínima, grande parte dessa redução deve-se às regras propostas para cálculo da pensão, que admitem valor abaixo do salário mínimo.

Abstract It has been shown that under the social security factor rule current contribution rates are insufficient to cover social security benefits, since the actuarially fair rates are 30.69% and 35.27% for men and women, respectively. However, if the social security reform were approved as submitted, the fair rates would be reduced to 22.25% and 21.60%, respectively. Besides the minimum age, part of this reduction is due to the proposed rules allowing pension values lower than the minimum wage. These results served the objective of this work, which was to compare the actuarially fair social security rates for the General Social Welfare Policy (GSWP), based on the social security factor rules and the minimum age proposal present in Proposed Constitutional Amendment n. 287/2016. The demographic changes that have taken place in Brazil in recent years raise questions about the sustainability of the national social security system and approving social security reform has been a government priority. Therefore, there is an undisputed need for an actuarial study that calculates actuarially fair rates and compares the current scenario with the reform proposals. Multiple decrement actuarial models were used to calculate the fair rates considering a standard family (25-year-old worker, spouse, and two children), in which the man is three years older than the woman. The IBGE 2015 Extrapolated (mortality) and Álvaro Vindas (disability) tables were adopted as biometric assumptions, and a real wage growth rate of 2% p.a. and real interest rate of 3% p.a. were used.