Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data
In: Working paper series 276
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In: Working paper series 276
In: Working paper 182
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2592
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Using new quarterly narrative evidence, this paper examines the macroeconomic impact of reforms of unemployment benefits (UB) and employment protection legislation (EPL) in the euro area from a Bayesian narrative panel VAR. The approach complements existing micro-econometric evidence by aligning short- and mediumterm effects in a unified framework and assessing state dependencies. Liberalising reforms result in temporary wage declines and highly persistent increases in economic activity and employment. In contrast to UB reforms, the effects of EPL reforms on employment emerge only gradually.
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 1893
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 1887
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In: Working paper series 751
In: ECB Working Paper No. 20202421
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Working paper
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Working paper
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 27, Heft 2, S. 333-346
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2353
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In: OECD journal: journal of business cycle measurement and analysis: a joint publication of OECD and CIRET, Band 2010, Heft 1, S. 1-22
ISSN: 1995-2899
We present a quarterly narrative database of important labour market reforms in selected euro area economies in between 1995 and 2018 covering 60 events. We provide legal adoption and implementation dates of major reforms to employment protection legislation and unemployment benefits. Estimates based on local projections find negative short-run effects of liberalising reforms on wages, while the employment effects of reforms differ markedly across age groups and partly depend on the state of the economy.
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 2022/2657
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In: Discussion paper series 6746
In: International macroeconomics