FOUR GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICYMAKING, WHEN COMBINED WITH FOUR GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT JAPANESE POLICYMAKING, ALL YIELD THE PREDICTION THAT JAPAN SHOULD HAVE A WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. HOWEVER, THE AUTHOR SAYS THIS IS NOT SO. THIS PAPER ANALYZES THESE MISTAKEN IDEAS & SUGGESTS SOME MODIFICATIONS TO GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL AND JAPANESE POLICYMAKING.
Part 1. The political context of the 1996 and 2000 elections -- The 1993 election and the end of LDP one-party dominance / Steven R. Reed -- Realignment between the 1993 and 1996 elections / Steven R. Reed -- Realignment between the 1996 and 2000 elections / Steven R. Reed -- Part 2. Four prefectural case studies -- Political realignment in Nagano: Hata Tsutomu and the new opposition challenge the LDP / Ethan Scheiner -- A local five-party alliance challenges the LDP in Hyogo / Karen E. Cox -- Inheriting the 'conservative kingdom' in Ibaraki / Hulda Thóra Sveinsdóttir -- Kagoshima: the prefecture that realignment forgot / Robert Weiner -- Part 3. Statistical analysis -- Who won the 1996 election? / Steven R. Reed -- Who won the 2000 election? / Steven R. Reed.
The old Japanese single-party system collapsed in 1993, but a new system has not yet fully evolved. Following the most significant party reform in Japanese history, this book analyses the most recent national elections, examining voter behaviour and how it is influenced. It provides a comprehensive overview of Japanese politics from 1955 to 1993 and a detailed historical study of events leading up to the 1996 and 2000 elections, before presenting statistical analysis of the elections themselves. The authors then look to the future, anticipating what form the new political system will take. Japanese Electoral Politics contains four very detailed case studies and a wealth of new data. It will appeal to students and researchers of Japanese politics and elections and electoral systems.
Using the 2005 and 2006 AsiaBarometer surveys I analyze religiosity and secularization in Asia. I find that, in South Asia, identification with a particular religion is the norm and most people pray every day but, in East Asia, religious identification and religious practice are both much less common. Even in secular East Asia, however, the demand for religious services is high and belief in a spiritual world is common. I conclude that secularization does not necessarily produce uniformly secular societies. Turning to the causes and consequences of religiosity, I find surprisingly few significant relationships, results that echo similar analyses in Western Europe. I then discuss the implications of these non-findings.
Elections to Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors, are 'secondary' elections, that is, elections that do not choose the government. Among the implications of this secondary status is that the party system is primarily determined elsewhere, by the system used in the general elections that do choose the government. From 1947 through 1993 the system used in general elections fostered a multiparty system that did not sit easily with the many single-member districts of the House of Councillors. Since 1996 general elections use a system based primarily on single-member districts, which is fostering a two-party system. As a two-party system emerges, we should expect the single-member districts of the upper house to become more and the multi-member districts to become less congruent with the party system. The 2004 House of Councillors election presented us with our first example of what two-party elections might look like in future upper house elections. The overall results do indeed indicate the advent of the two-party system with the major parties winning 96% of the seats in the district tier and 71% in the PR tier.
The LDP predominant party system ended in 1993. The big question now is whether an effective opposition party can be created or whether the LDP will find a way to re-establish predominance. One key will be gubernatorial elections. Governors sit at the pivot between national and local politics. All parties except the Communists strive to be part of the gubernatorial coalition because only then can they influence distributive political decisions. Most gubernatorial elections are thus noncompetitive. Recent gubernatorial elections, however, have given some hope to those who would create an alternative to the LDP. Even if an anti-LDP candidate wins, he will be tempted to return to the LDP fold, or at least remain neutral in national politics. Recent gubernatorial elections in Aomori illustrate these pressures and complexities. Aomori was one of three prefectures where the New Frontier Party won gubernatorial elections. The NFP represented the first failed attempt to create a credible alternative to the LDP and we can learn much from its failure.
The M + 1 Rule, that at equilibrium there should be only one more candidate running than seats available, extended Duverger's Law to the cases of more than one seat per district. Both the M + 1 rule and Duverger's Law have been confirmed repeatedly, albeit always with qualification. Yet we have reached no consensus on the mechanism that produces these two empirical regularities. In this paper I use a simple simulation to test the hypothesis that the mechanism is that candidates retire after some fixed number of consecutive losses. I test the results of the simulation against several different empirical results and find a reasonably good fit. I also add a mechanism for increasing the number of candidates. These results suggest that the M + 1 rule and Duverger's law may be the result not of rational calculation but of some simple set of decision rules. The analysis also illustrates the usefulness of a simulation approach to hypothesis testing.
One year ago I entitled my review of Japanese elections 'Time for a Change?'. Candidates running against the establishment were defeating candidates who had until recently appeared unbeatable. Most notably, outsider candidates were defeating ainori (supported by all major parties) candidates in gubernatorial elections. A prime example of an outsider candidate defeating the establishment was Prime Minister Koizumi, who defeated the LDP establishment to win the leadership of the LDP. Koizumi's election and subsequent popularity appears to have dampened the trend. Most notably, a well-qualified challenger failed to unseat the incumbent in the Shizuoka gubernatorial election. Once Koizumi's popularity faded, however, the trend in favour of outsiders reappeared. Given an attractive alternative, establishment candidates continue to find themselves in trouble. The clearest recent example comes from the Yokohama mayoral election.
