Suchergebnisse

Discusses the changing role and public perceptions of the police. A number of well publicised miscarriages of justice in recent years has undermined morale within the force and lowered confidence without. Considers the possible means by which the police force can be restored to its former levels of trust and eminence. (RSM)

AFTER THE 1981 TURMOILS, AND THE SCARMAN REPORT, THERE SEEMED TO BE A TURN IN THE POLICIES OF MANY POLICE FORCES TOWARDS A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH WINNING THE CONSENT AND SUPPORT OF THE COMMUNITY. EVEN THE POLICE AND CRIMINAL EVIDENCE ACT, WHICH MANY SEE AS A FURTHER TWIST OF THE AUTHORITARIAN SCREW, INCLUDES A SECTION (106) THAT ADOPTS SCARMAN'S IDEA OF STATUTORILY BASED CONSULTATION. THIS NEW EMPHASIS ON DEPOLITICISATION AND RECONCILIATION WAS NOT JUST A MATTER OF SCARMAN'S IDEAS BEING THE FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH. THE HOME OFFICE WAS BEGINNING TO REALISE THAT FOR ALL THE BONANZA IN "LAW AND ORDER" EXPENDITURE SINCE THE CONSERVATIVES CAME INTO OFFICE, CRIME RATES HAD BOOMED EVEN MORE. IN NOVEMBER 1983 THE HOME OFFICE ISSUED CIRCULAR 114 STATING FIRMLY THAT NO FURTHER INCREASES IN POLICE RESOURCES OR ESTABLISHMENT WOULD BE SANCTIONED UNLESS THE HOME SECRETARY WAS SATISFIED THAT THE BEST POSSIBLE USE WAS BEING MADE OF EXISTING MANPOWER. IT BECAME CLEAR THAT POLICE SERVICES WOULD HAVE TO BE INCLUDED WITHIN THE TIGHTENING CONTROL OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE. AT PRESENT THE LESSONS OF SCARMAN ARE VYING UNEQUALLY WITH THE PERNICIOUS CONSEQUENCES OF POLICING THE BITTEREST AND MOST POLARISED INDUSTRIAL DISPUTE OF THE LAST SIXTY YEARS.

Socioeconomic systems are often characterized by spatiotemporal structured data sets. If many potentially explanatory variables are available, a ranking of their relevance is desirable. A numerical procedure is presented which allows for a stepwise selective regression analysis of such variables based on least square principles. The optimal set of key socioeconomic factors is obtained from a large number of variables by an orthogonalization procedure. This orthogonalization takes into account the correlation between the variables which have been already been selected and the remaining set. Time delays of variables are also considered. As an example the key factor analysis of regional utilities of the migratory system of the Federal Republic of Germany is treated.

Background: Since late 2015, an epidemic of Yellow fever virus (YFV) has caused over 6,554 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo, including 387 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this YFV outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. Methods: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of YFV, vector suitability, human demography and mobility in Central Africa in order to understand and predict the expansion of YFV. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district YFV infection risk over the course of the epidemic in the region. Findings: Early spread of YFV was characterized by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reporting cases after only three months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (0·52, 95% CI: 0·34, 0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda the later the invasion date (0·60, 95% CI: 0·52, 0·66). Districts with higher population densities also featured higher risks of sustained transmission. A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others. If at the start of the epidemic sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. Interpretation: Our findings reveal the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the YFV outbreak and provide estimates for where vaccines may be prioritised, although other constraints (e.g. vaccine supply and delivery) need to be accounted for before such insights may be translated into policy.

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used causespecific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings In 2016, there were 27.08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.30-30.30 million) new cases of TBI and 0.93 million (0.78-1.16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55.50 million (53.40-57.62 million) and of SCI was 27.04 million (24.98-30.15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the agestandardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8.4% (95% UI 7.7 to 9.2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0.2% [-2.1 to 2.7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3.6% (1.8 to 5.5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3.6% [-7.4 to 4.0]). TBI caused 8.1 million (95% UI 6.0-10.4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9.5 million (6.7-12.4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. ; Published version ; We acknowledge the funding and support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AK was supported by the Miguel Servet contract, which was financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects integrated into the National Research, Development, and Implementation, and funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). AMS is supported by the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. AF acknowledges the Federal University of Sergipe (Sergipe, Brazil). AA received financial assistance from the Indian Department of Science and Technology (New Delhi, India) through the INSPIRE faculty programme. AS is supported by Health Data Research UK. DJS is supported by the South African Medical Research Council. AB is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. SMSI received a senior research fellowship from the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University (Waurn Ponds, VIC, Australia), and a career transition grant from the High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. FP and CF acknowledge support from the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, and Ministério da Educação e Ciência) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020 UID/QUI/50006/2013. TB acknowledges financial support from the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies, Yaoundé, Cameroon. AM of Imperial College London is grateful for support from the Northwest London National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care and the Imperial NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. KD is funded by a Wellcome Trust Intermediate Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 201900). PSA is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship. RT-S was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. The Serbian part of this contribution (by MJ) has been co-financed with grant OI175014 from the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development; publication of results was not contingent upon the Ministry's approval. MMMSM acknowledges support from the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development (contract 175087). MM's research was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust (London, UK) and King's College London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK National Health Service, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt professor award, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.