Suchergebnisse

The real estate market,
as one of the most volatile economic sectors, is a key research topic for many
authors. Regardless the significance of this topic, no previous research has
been conducted to evaluate the factors which influence the price of real estate
in Montenegro. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify whether the
trend in real estate prices in Montenegro can be explained by macroeconomic
fundamentals such as GDP, the inflation rate, interest rates on mortgages,
take-up of mortgages, the unemployment rate, the average net salary, the
current account deficit and constructing activity and to determine which of
them is the most important in explaining the price trend for this market. The
applied methodology is based on the model averaging technique, which has not
been used in previous research on this topic; it enables the research to focus
on the relevant results despite the short time series and the large number of
independent variables. The results obtained point to the fact that price trends
in real estate are best described by and most closely align to GDP. Apart from
GDP, net salary, the unemployment rate as well as the take-up of mortgages and
their interest rates are shown to be significant as variables, which determine
price trends within the real estate market.

Cilj ovog rada je ispitati odrednice javnog duga u zemljama zapadnog Balkana, s naglaskom na učinke gospodarskog rasta i socijalnih izdataka. Studija pokriva razdoblje od 2006. do 2017. godine i primjenjujemo dinamičku panel analizu, korištenjem diferenciranog i sistemskog GMM procjenitelja. Rezultati sugeriraju da inkrementalna promjena rasta značajno smanjuje dug, dok socijalni izdaci podižu omjer duga prema BDP-u. Također, postoji negativan odnos između inflacije i duga, dok otplaćivanje kamata na prethodno zaduživanje dodatno povećava javni dug. Konačno, nezaposlenost u ovom modelu nije statistički značajna. Glavna implikacija studije je da kreatori politika u ovim zemljama trebaju favorizirati politike usmjerene na rast i socijalne reforme orijentirane na djelotvornost, kako bi javni dug bio održiv na duže staze. ; The aim of this paper is to examine the determinants of public debt in the Western Balkan countries, with an emphasis on the effects of economic growth and social expenditures. The study covers the period 2006-2017, and we implement the dynamic panel GMM estimation, using both first-difference and system GMM. The results suggest that incremental growth change significantly reduces debt, while social expenditures push the debt-to-GDP ratio up. Also, there is a negative relation between inflation and debt, while interest payments on previous borrowing increase public debt additionally. Finally, unemployment is not statistically significant in this setting. The main policy implication is that policy makers in these countries should favor a growth-oriented policy toolbox and efficiency-oriented social reforms, in order to keep the public debt sustainable in the long run.