Suchergebnisse

In this paper an analysis is conducted with the aim of a better understanding how the labour market and income inequality in society are connected, examining the relationships between the variables that describe economic inequality and the labour market in Montenegro. The analysis involves the use of econometric techniques and VAR models, which, with the use of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, best reflect the impact of selected labour market variables on economic inequality. The results of the analysis show that the variables of the labour market, namely the unemployment rate and the long-term unemployment rate, proved to be significant in explaining economic inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient. The results of the research can be useful to various researchers dealing with the issue of economic inequality in Montenegro, providing an additional mechanism for analyzing flows and predicting the future values of the determinants of economic inequality. The results also enable a different approach in the analysis of the labour market and the economic inequality in Montenegrin society, which can serve as a basis for many future analyses. Key words Gini coefficient; labour market; VAR models; inequality

U radu se analizira razvoj ekonomskih teorija u periodu krize. Akcent je stavljen na dvije krize: veliku depresiju i savremenu globalnu ekonomsku krizu. Cilj rada je da se, analizom globalnih kriza, kao perioda transformacije ukupnog privrednog ambijenta, testira pretpostavka o cirkularnosti ekonomskih teorija. U radu je detaljnije objašnjen model kejznijanske doktrine koji je nastao nakon perioda velike depresije. U drugom dijelu su objašnjeni trendovi razvoja ekonomske teorije između dva krizna perioda, kao i teorijski kontekst u kojem se razvijala savremena globalna ekonomska kriza. Istraživanjem je utvrđeno da u periodima globalnih ekonomskih fluktuacija i poremećaja dolazi do preispitivanja vodećeg teorijskog okvira u ekonomskoj politici i promjene ekonomske paradigme. Neadekvatna državna intervencija u periodu velike depresije, posebno u SAD, bila je važna pouka za nosioce ekonomskih politika u savremenoj krizi. U svjetskim privredama koje su pogođene krizom, sporovedene su anticiklične mjere monetarne i fiskalne politike kejnzijanskog tipa. Nakon dugogodišnje dominacije nove liberalne doktrine u ekonomskoj politici, došlo je do nagle reafirmacije kejnzijanske koncepcije. ; The paper analyzes the development of economic theory in a crisis period. Emphasis is placed on two crises: the Great Depression and the Global Economic Crisis. The paper aims to test the assumption of the circularity of economic theories through an analysis of the global crises as periods of transformation within the overall economic environment. The paper describes in some detail the Keynesian model originating after the period of the Great Depression. The second part of the paper explains the trends in the development of economic theory between the two crisis periods, as well as the theoretical context in which the Global Economic Crisis started. The research shows that during periods of global economic fluctuations and disturbances the leading theoretical framework for economic policy and changes in the economic paradigm are questioned. Inadequate government intervention in the period of the Great Depression, especially in the United States, was an important lesson for economic policy makers during the Global Crisis. In the world's economies affected by the crisis, anti-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies of the Keynesian type were implemented. After years of domination by the new liberal ideology in economic policy, there has been a sudden reaffirmation of the Keynesian approach.

Cilj ovog rada je ispitati odrednice javnog duga u zemljama zapadnog Balkana, s naglaskom na učinke gospodarskog rasta i socijalnih izdataka. Studija pokriva razdoblje od 2006. do 2017. godine i primjenjujemo dinamičku panel analizu, korištenjem diferenciranog i sistemskog GMM procjenitelja. Rezultati sugeriraju da inkrementalna promjena rasta značajno smanjuje dug, dok socijalni izdaci podižu omjer duga prema BDP-u. Također, postoji negativan odnos između inflacije i duga, dok otplaćivanje kamata na prethodno zaduživanje dodatno povećava javni dug. Konačno, nezaposlenost u ovom modelu nije statistički značajna. Glavna implikacija studije je da kreatori politika u ovim zemljama trebaju favorizirati politike usmjerene na rast i socijalne reforme orijentirane na djelotvornost, kako bi javni dug bio održiv na duže staze. ; The aim of this paper is to examine the determinants of public debt in the Western Balkan countries, with an emphasis on the effects of economic growth and social expenditures. The study covers the period 2006-2017, and we implement the dynamic panel GMM estimation, using both first-difference and system GMM. The results suggest that incremental growth change significantly reduces debt, while social expenditures push the debt-to-GDP ratio up. Also, there is a negative relation between inflation and debt, while interest payments on previous borrowing increase public debt additionally. Finally, unemployment is not statistically significant in this setting. The main policy implication is that policy makers in these countries should favor a growth-oriented policy toolbox and efficiency-oriented social reforms, in order to keep the public debt sustainable in the long run.