Suchergebnisse

In this paper, I examine the ability of equity market illiquidity to predict Australian macroeconomic variables, between 1976 and 2010. In contrast to existing, U.S.-based, studies, I find that stock market illiquidity does not, on average, have much predictive power over economic growth. Consistent with the weak in-sample predictive power, economic growth forecasts from models that exclude stock illiquidity from the set of explanatory financial variables are statistically no worse than forecasts from models that include illiquidity. However, I find strong evidence that the predictive power of equity market illiquidity is state-contingent, with much higher predictability in states associated with economic and financial stress. The difference between the single-state and regime-switching models' results reflects the fact that, as the nonstressed states have been much more prevalent, parameter estimates from a single-state model averages over both stressed and non-stressed states thus lowering the statistical and economic significance of the estimates.

Purpose
This paper aims to provide investors' views on financing costs and barriers to entry into the electricity generation sector, with a focus on investors' views on potential impacts on cost of capital from adopting nodal pricing and financial transmission rights (FTRs). The implications for policymakers and policy reforms are also discussed in detail.


Design/methodology/approach
Survey-based data collection of investors and developers in electricity generation, consisting of multiple choice questions from a closed list of discrete choices, binary-choice questions, and questions with free-text/open-ended answers.


Findings
Across survey respondents, weighted-average cost of capital (WACCs) were broadly unchanged over 2019, with increases for undiversified/non-integrated participants offset by decreases for horizontally integrated participants. Cost of equity has risen, whereas cost of debt has fallen. Nodal pricing-cum-FTRs were estimated to increase WACCs by 150–200 basis points p.a. (15–20%), reflecting concerns around the firmness of FTRs and ability to automatically access intraregional settlement residues.


Research limitations/implications
These findings have energy policy implications, namely, the need to consider the interaction between economic theory and real-world financing models when designing and implementing fundamental energy sector reforms.


Practical implications
The need to consider implementation and transitional issues (e.g. grandfathering of existing rights, focusing on reducing the largest barriers to entry) is associated with implementing nodal pricing.


Originality/value
Unique set of survey questions and insights that have not previously been addressed in an Australian context; what-if analysis not previously done in an Australian context

AbstractThe Hilmer reforms served electricity consumers well over the first post‐reform decade. However, three key issues emerged from the mid‐2000s: (i) a significant and largely unnecessary rise in network expenditures; (ii) emissions policy discontinuity; and (iii) a large increase in wholesale prices due to rising fuel prices and the sudden exit of generators. The consequence was a doubling in retail prices. Deficiencies in cost‐recovery mechanisms have meant price increases have disproportionately affected low‐income households. We propose three key reforms as rectification: (i) integrating emissions reduction and energy policies; (ii) boosting network capacity utilisation; and (iii) improving cost recovery mechanisms.

We compile a new unit‐record data set of Australian corporate bond issuance, which sheds light on developments in the bond market since the early twentieth century. Reflecting the evolution of the economy, privatisations, and changes in the regulatory landscape the following trends are noteworthy: (i) issuance today is largely by private entities whereas government‐owned corporations dominated historically; (ii) the issuer base has shifted away from non‐financial corporations towards banks, with corporations now raising a large share of funds offshore; and (iii) the investor base has shifted away from direct holdings by households towards holdings through superannuation/managed funds and holdings by non‐residents.