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Developing low-carbon transport policies in Peru with capacity-building for their implementation
In: UCL: London/Lima, Peru.
Transport has been identified as one of the biggest sectors that contribute to climate change (23%) due to its energy demand and polluting emissions and therefore one of the sectors that needs to take action to mitigate its impact. A few countries in Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia) have started their transport NAMA development and are at different stages in the process. Peru has started this process more recently and this report aims at facilitating the NAMA development and a strategy for its implementation. A key issue in the Peruvian case is the need to set a wave of change in the way transport is usually perceived and addressed in Peru. Thus this report considers both the requirements and changes needed in order to implement a successful and appropriate transport NAMA. What is a NAMA? A NAMA (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) is a concept that originated under the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Bali 2007, as a mechanism to engage "Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;". With two years of application; NAMAs have managed to attract transport sector decision-makers due to their alignment with national priorities and potential large financial and technical support to implement them. Overall Vision of a Transport NAMA in Peru The overarching aim for the transport NAMA in Peru is the achievement of the minimum optimum mobility required to stimulate economic growth and thus improve the quality of life. This report suggests that three areas of priority should be tackled in order to achieve the overarching aim – Urban Mobility, Energy Efficiency and the role of land use and planning – in the development and implementation of carbon emissions targets. In order to reduce emissions by any significant amount, it is necessary to devise measures for each of these priorities. For Urban Mobility, the measure to be adopted is the development of an integrated mobility system; for Energy Efficiency, the measure is the development of a programme to increase the energy efficiency of vehicles; for Land use and planning, the measure is to develop demonstrator Green Zones to show how low carbon living might work in reality. Each measure amounts to a set of interventions and each intervention has a set of Actions. The Actions are measurable, reportable and verifiable. In the draft NAMA, there are 16 Interventions and 51 Actions explained in Chapter 4 and some suggestions for indicators of successful outcomes (See chapter 4 intervention time frame tables). The dominance of the capital city of Lima and Callao in relation to the rest of the country means that significant effort needs to be made in the capital in order to influence the success of the policy at the national level. Many of the actions will therefore apply to and be developed in Lima and Callao. Most can be repeated elsewhere in the country as appropriate. A major finding is that to achieve the aim, it is crucially important to ensure coherent, consistent and comprehensive governance over the transport system, without which environmental and operational actions will fail. Therefore a major Mobility Reform must be put in place – some initial steps have already been taken but the path is longer than the political cycle; therefore in the case of Lima and Callao this reform could be facilitated by the creation of a Unified Technical Authority (UTA). This will incorporate all government bodies involved in transport in the capital city; to oversee the overall transport system in the city in order to have a low carbon means to provide the urban mobility required by the community. The UTA can then develop actions to optimise mobility for the population and improve the energy performance of the transport system by implementing the interventions. Some of the Actions suggested in the draft transport NAMA are substantive – designed to achieve the NAMA objectives. Other Actions are facilitative – intended to set up the governance and contextual situations required for successful implementation of the substantive actions. The report presents the arguments to support the choice of these outcomes, objectives, measures, interventions and actions and a suggested initial timescale for implementation. The 16 Interventions are (Please see Table 28 in appendix IV for summary of all actions): 1. Creation of a Unified Technical Authority 2. Mobility Reform for Lima and Callao 3. Creation of a Multi-institutional Transport NAMA Committee 4. Revision of draft Transport NAMA 5. Development of Travel Plans for commercial activity and employees 6. Development of an energy-efficient Mobility Plan 7. Support for education and training 8. Development, design and implementation of new infrastructure to encourage low energy mobility 9. Seek international finance for the implementation of the transport NAMA 10. Implement a vehicle labelling system and a compulsory system to achieve energy efficiency in light duty vehicles 11. Ensure that fuel quality is improved 12. Adopt mechanisms to achieve the declared emissions target 13. Design and Planning 14. Governance and Delivery 15. Carbon accounting and sustainability 16. Tendering and Feasibility Key Concepts Institutional Structure The overarching aim for the future of the world s citizens is the improvement in the quality of life – and Peru is no exception in this respect. This aim is so overarching that it extends beyond the limitations of political ideas and preferences: it is hard to imagine a political party not wishing to improve the quality of life of the population. It therefore extends beyond the political cycles of elections and terms of office, but requires commitment from all parties so that the initial actions are started immediately and there is a continuity of purpose – even if the methods and priorities change as one political philosophy is exchanged for another. The nature and scale of the problem (long term) transcends political differences, therefore it is necessary to have the right institutional structures in place in order to ensure that the technico-political discussions can take place in a meaningful way. A decision to implement a transport NAMA will require actions which will only return results beyond the current political cycle and this requires bold political action Technical Leadership Politicians have a duty to bring the societal consensus to the heart of government decision-making but sometimes this will conflict with the practical, technological and methodological requirements of the implementation of their decisions. However important and beneficial the political desire might be, the occasion does arise when it is simply not possible to put it into practice. Therefore there is a need to ensure that there is a body of technical wisdom at the disposal of the politicians. This wisdom includes the knowledge of what is possible, what happened before and an understanding of how to improve the predictions of what could happen in the future. This wisdom needs to be independent of political influence because its role is to provide advice that is independent of political wishes and, in effect, to provide the knowledgeable intelligence that enables politicians to be able to act in a responsible way with society s resources. It should be the norm that a politician turns to the technical leadership for objective advice of the highest order so that all decisions are made on the basis of the best evidence, advice and support. This requires technical leadership that is independent of the political process and therefore free from the changes that often occur as a result of the political cycle. Therefore continuity and leadership is also required at the technical level. Analytical Tools Three main tools have been selected to support the draft NAMA process; (1) the Outcome-based Strategy (OBS) which is a tool that formalises and facilitates the decision-making process; (2) the RED (Reduce, Exchange and Decarbonise) strategy which aims to drive and guide priorities increasing carbon reduction and improving quality of life; and (3) Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) which is an alternative method to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) enabling more effective assessments of strategic actions. Final remarks Further work is required in order to transform this draft transport NAMA into a NAMA proposal and this entails firstly the adoption and, if necessary, adjustment of the suggested interventions, followed by assessment of financial and incremental costs, development of appropriate metrics of success (including measurement, calculation, reporting and verification) and achievement of suitable GHG projections. Peru is currently recognised as a very promising emerging economy attracting international investment and the transport system plays a vital role in this economic development (transporting goods and people). Initial steps have already been taken to improve Mobility in the Metropolitan city (Lima and Callao), however more work needs to be done to ensure Peru s growth reaches its maximum potential. The large technical and financial support available and the potential social cobenefits that can be achieved, make a Transport NAMA the ideal tool to facilitate this goal.
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Is Faith an Emotion? - Faith as a Meaning-Making Affective Process: An Example From Breast Cancer Patients
In: American behavioral scientist: ABS, Band 45, Heft 12, S. 1839-1853
ISSN: 0002-7642
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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