Suchergebnisse

Intro -- CONTENTS -- Acknowledgments -- Preface: What Will the Future Bring? -- Part 1: Background -- 1 Worrying about the Future -- Why Now? -- Is a Forecast Possible? -- Why Forty Years? -- Bases for an Educated Guess -- Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind -- 2 Five Big Issues toward 2052 -- The Sustainability Revolution -- Five Central Issues Involving System Change -- The End of Capitalism? -- Glimpse 2-1: The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization -- The End of Economic Growth? -- Glimpse 2-2: Constraining Asian Consumption -- The End of Slow Democracy? -- Glimpse 2-3: Shuffling toward Sustainability -- The End of Generational Harmony? -- Glimpse 2-4: Intergenerational War for Equity -- The End of Stable Climate? -- Glimpse 2-5: Extreme Weather in 2052 -- Part 2: My Global Forecast -- 3 The Logic behind My Forecast -- The Guiding Star -- A Broad-Brush Picture -- A Brief Summary of My Story -- The Deterministic Backbone -- Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze -- The Mathematical Formulation -- A Final Note on the Data Base -- 4 Population and Consumption to 2052 -- Population Will Peak -- Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier -- Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles -- Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly -- Glimpse 4-1: The End of Uneconomic Growth -- Investments-Forced and Voluntary-Will Increase -- New Costs Will Emerge -- Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode -- The State Will Get More Involved -- Glimpse 4-2: Light Green Growth -- Consumption Will Stagnate-and Fall in Some Places -- 5 Energy and CO2 to 2052 -- Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise -- Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever -- Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables -- Glimpse 5-1: The Road to PV -- Glimpse 5-2: The Death of Nuclear -- CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030 -- Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C.

AbstractWe argue that it is possible to explain much of the history of the world's shipping markets since 1950 as the interaction of two balancing feedback loops: a capacity adjustment loop which creates a roughly 20‐year wave, and a capacity utilization adjustment loop which generates a roughly 4‐year cycle. We show how this insight has been used rather successfully since the early 1980s for practical forecasting of turning points in freight rates and the "sentiment" in the shipping market 1_4 years ahead of time. The basic mechanisms in the shipping system create a strong "deterministic backbone" which is visible through the exogenous noise, and hence predictable with useful precision. Our experience leads to a number of questions concerning system dynamics best practice for future research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Scandinavian forestry sector is facing a major challenge. After a century of rapid growth - both in forestry and the forest products industry - the sector is approaching a situation where rapid growth will no longer be possible simply because most of the annual forest growth is already being utilized. One may choose to let the forces of the free market shape the transition from rapid growth to moderate growth. Or one may choose to pursue policies that are intended to improve the transition in one way or another. Wood Resource Dynamics (i.e. this volume) describes the historical background for the current situation, both concerning the supply of and demand for wood and concerning existing legislation and management practises. The volume further describes the problems caused by slow growth in the forestry sector, and a discussion of the various policies that can be conceived to soften these problems. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to elucidate the likely future effects of the various policies. The volume proceeds to illustrate how this computer simulation model of the Scandinavian forestry sector can be used in discussions of long term policy for the forestry sector. The general applicability of the simulation model is being demonstrated by adapting the model to the case of Finland. Finally, Wood Resource Dynamics gives a short introduction to the system dynamics method for model building by presenting two applications to concrete, short term problerns in the forestry sector - pulp inventory control and forest stand management.

The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning.

"Earth For All is an antidote to despair. Combining the global economy, population, inequality, food, and energy in a state-of-the art computer model, a leading group of scientists and economists present a plan of five system-shifting steps to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation."--