Suchergebnisse

Abstract
This article uses national survey data, quantitative party system indicators, as well as manifesto data to assess the proposition whether the Croatian party system is indeed one of the most stable systems among post-communist EU member states. The analysis spans three decades and focuses on changes after EU accession and confirms long-term stability of the Croatian party system. However, after the 2015 election, there was a decline in the popularity of the two major parties – Christian Democrats (hdz) and Social Democrats (sdp), and an emergence of several challenger parties – the center-right populist Bridge, which favors institutional reform and decentralization, the Eurosceptic, populist, and nationalist Homeland Movement, and We Can!, a green-left coalition of academics and environmentalists. In addition, the observed party system change was accompanied by a rise in civic referendum initiatives around bioethical issues such as sex education and same-sex marriage.

Listovni razmjerni izborni sustav jedan je od najosporavanijih aspekata hrvatskoga političkog sustava nakon 2000. Međutim, kritičari rijetko nude sustavno komparativno uporište za svoje zamjerke. Ovaj članak popunjava tu prazninu te argumentira kako listovni razmjerni sustav u Hrvatskoj adekvatno funkcionira s obzirom na teorijske pretpostavke i u usporedbi s drugim listovnim razmjernim sustavima u Europskoj uniji. Na temelju komparativnih podataka o nerazmjernosti i efektivnom broju stranaka kao i analize efektivnog izbornog praga i efektivne veličine izbornog okruga, razmatraju se dva desetljeća uporabe ovoga izbornog sustava. Analiza pokazuje kako u bitnim karakteristikama učinci listovnoga razmjernog sustava ne odudaraju od teorijskih očekivanja i naspram drugih listovnih razmjernih sustava u Europskoj uniji. Također, pokazuje se kako varijacija u učincima listovnog razmjernog sustava u državama članicama Europske unije uvelike ovisi i o specifičnostima pojedine države, odnosno izbornoga sustava, a ne nekog od središnjih elemenata samog izbornog dizajna. Zaključno, može se tvrditi kako učinci listovnog razmjernog sustava u Hrvatskoj uvelike odgovaraju očekivanjima te stoga hrvatski slučaj možemo smatrati tipičnim, a ne izuzetnim.

U radu se nudi povijesni pregled razvoja izučavanja hrvatske politike na Fakultetu političkih znanosti od osnivanja institucije do danas. Razdoblje prije demokratskih promjena bilo je obilježeno relativno nepovoljnim uvjetima za razvoj izučavanja nacionalne politike, kako zbog dominantne koncepcije studija koja je poricala samostalnost politologije tako i zbog političkoga i društvenog konteksta. Pa ipak, već u 1960-im i 1970-im godinama nastaju prve studije koje se bave biračkim ponašanjem i funkcioniranjem predstavničkih tijela. Višestruka tranzicija na prijelazu iz 1980-ih u 1990-e godine donijela je i otvaranje novih tema u izučavanju hrvatske politike, a započela je i emancipacija domaće politologije kao samostalne znanstvene discipline. Nakon 2000. godine proučavanje hrvatske politike doživjet će puni procvat istraživanja te tematsku i metodološku raznorodnost. U recentnim godinama primjetno je i osjetno povećanje broja radova objavljenih u vrhunskim međunarodnim publikacijama, što dovodi do povećanja vidljivosti i internacionalizacije ne samo proučavanja hrvatske politike već i hrvatske politologije u cjelini.

For years, the countries of Southern Europe have struggled with the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis. Under external pressure they enacted harsh austerity measures which resulted in shaken trust in the European Union, new protest movements and the entrance of new political parties in legislatures and governments. A decade later, this paper poses the question whether the storm of the European sovereign debt crisis has left an impact on Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. The article focuses on changes on the macro-level and analyzes party system changes with the help of data from the CMP/MARPOR dataset. The paper deals with changes in the attitude towards the European Union, the position on the left-right scale (RILE), as well as economic and welfare policy. The analysis has shown a weak decrease in positive attitudes towards the EU in Italy, a moderate leftward shift of the Spanish party system, as well as a moderate decrease in positive attitudes towards the role of the state in the economy in the Greek case. In conclusion, one can say that ten years after the European sovereign debt crisis it is not possible to speak of drastic party system change in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, and that external pressure has not succeeded in having an impact on the fact that Southern European party systems are, in general, titled towards the left.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the spatial patterns of party support at the 2021 Bundestag election and to test predictors of the variance of party success at the constituency level. First, the state of literature on cleavages and party competition in Germany will be discussed. Then, factors that will be tested in this study as predictors in the spatial variance of party support will be presented. Further, a discussion of the results of a multivariate regression model will ensue, together with analysis of party strongholds. Finally, some preliminary conclusions which can be derived from these results will be presented.

Published in November 2021 by the European University Institute ; Since 1999, all member states have employed some form of proportional representation to elect representatives in the European Parliament. The introduction of Spitzenkandidaten and greater policy and campaigning coordination within Europarties sought to create a common European ground of party competition. However, the actual election of MEPs remains a national endeavor, determined by a national electoral framework. The electoral success of an Europarty in a given member state is shaped by the conditions set by the national electoral model for European elections. Different national models also give rise to different electoral strategies employed by parties wishing to maximize their number of MEPs. While electoral alliances might reflect cooperation of ideologically similar parties (such as list combinations in the Netherlands) or presidential majorities, like the coalition list of parties that support the French President, sometimes, especially in newer member states (e.g., Croatia), they might represent a strategic choice of ideologically divergent parties to work together in order to pass the threshold and win seats in the European Parliament. This paper seeks to compare different national playing grounds in which Europarties, i.e., their member parties compete, as well as electoral strategies that accompany such different frameworks. Apart from Ireland and Malta, which use the single transferable vote system, all other (current) member states use list proportional representation. However, the choice of a national electoral district or division in regional electoral constituencies can have a significant impact on electoral outcomes. Further, the employment of an electoral threshold and its interaction with district magnitude can create different electoral conditions. Finally, methods of seat allocation have an impact on prospects of smaller parties. A comparison of national electoral models will uncover different conditions and levels of (dis)proportionality that all weave together into the ultimate makeup of the European Parliament. ; This work has been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the Project UIP-2019-04-2979

Na temelju rezultata predizborne terenske ankete, autor istražuje strukturu društvenih rascjepa u Hrvatskoj u kontekstu parlamentarnih izbora 2020. Multinominalnom logističkom regresijom ispituje dosadašnje spoznaje o vrijednosnom rascjepu utemeljenu u religiji i identitetskom rascjepu utemeljenu na odnosu prema prošlosti, koji tvore kulturnu dimenziju stranačkog natjecanja. Testira se i moguća pojava novoga društvenog rascjepa ukorijenjenoga u razlikama u stavovima birača o ekonomskim pitanjima, kao i rascjepa vezana za pitanja suverenizma i zahtjeva za većom demokratskom participacijom. Istraživanje uvodi nove prediktorske ljestvice koje dosad nisu korištene u sličnim istraživanjima hrvatskih izbora. Evaluacija predloženoga regresijskog modela pokazala je kako su religioznost i odnos prema prošlosti ostali dominantni prediktori ponašanja birača u Hrvatskoj. Potvrđene su i značajne dobne razlike u ponašanju, pri čemu mlađi birači vjerojatnije podržavaju Domovinski pokret ili apstiniraju, a stariji birači vjerojatnije glasuju za koaliciju lijevog centra. Nalazi pokazuju kako se s porastom vrijednosti na ljestvici populizma smanjuje vjerojatnost glasovanja za HDZ. Zaključno se potvrđuju stabilnost vrijednosnoga i identitetskog rascjepa te značenje religije i prošlosti, ali se ne utvrđuje postojanje ekonomskoga rascjepa.

This paper analyzes changes in the Croatian party system in the 1990-2016 period by looking at trends in the ideological makeup of voters of the main center-right (HDZ) and center-left (SDP) parties. An assessment of changes in voter self-placement on a left-right scale has shown a gradual increase in the ideological distance among voters of these parties. Further, the paper detected a trend towards an increase in the share of self-declared far-right voters among HDZ voters and far-left voters among SDP voters. In addition, an analysis of categorical ideological identification has demonstrated that, on average, two thirds of HDZ voters were Christian Democrats, while two thirds of SDP voters were Social Democrats. However, among all Christian Democrats, an average of 55 percent voted for the HDZ, while just shy of 60 percent of Social Democrats voted for the SDP. Finally, a logistic regression analysis has confirmed the importance of the cultural dimension of voter behavior in Croatia. Religiosity levels, as well as left-right self-placement serve as rather good predictors of a vote for the HDZ and the SDP, with the model showing greater explanatory strength for HDZ voters. In conclusion, the observed trends in ideological characteristics of HDZ and SDP voters could serve as pointers of underlying shifts in patterns of party competition and offer clues to the increased instability of the Croatian party system following the 2015 and 2016 parliamentary elections.

This paper analyzes changes in the Croatian party system in the 1990-2016 period by looking at trends in the ideological makeup of voters of the main center-right (HDZ) and center-left (SDP) parties. An assessment of changes in voter self-placement on a left-right scale has shown a gradual increase in the ideological distance among voters of these parties. Further, the paper detected a trend towards an increase in the share of self-declared far-right voters among HDZ voters and far-left voters among SDP voters. In addition, an analysis of categorical ideological identification has demonstrated that, on average, two thirds of HDZ voters were Christian Democrats, while two thirds of SDP voters were Social Democrats. However, among all Christian Democrats, an average of 55 percent voted for the HDZ, while just shy of 60 percent of Social Democrats voted for the SDP. Finally, a logistic regression analysis has confirmed the importance of the cultural dimension of voter behavior in Croatia. Religiosity levels, as well as left-right self-placement serve as rather good predictors of a vote for the HDZ and the SDP, with the model showing greater explanatory strength for HDZ voters. In conclusion, the observed trends in ideological characteristics of HDZ and SDP voters could serve as pointers of underlying shifts in patterns of party competition and offer clues to the increased instability of the Croatian party system following the 2015 and 2016 parliamentary elections.

The article deals with the multifaceted reasons for the transformation of the Northern League from a Padanian regionalist and separatist party to an Italian nationalist sovereignist party which is gathering allies that want to bring the European Union back to its pre-Maastricht state. An analysis of electoral manifestos, the effects of Europeanization on party competition, party system change due to leadership change and of the impact of court cases on party life has shown that the Northern League has not been following a long-term trend of policy change but has done so under its new leader Salvini. Salvini has partially imported a sovereignist, nationalist vision from the EU party scene and nationalized the party on the national scene due to the power vacuum left after Berlusconi's resignation. The transformation combined Salvini's personal worldview with the pragmatism associated with the struggle to survive due to dangers of sequestration. The new Northern League is now capable of becoming a leading right-of-the-center party in Italy and of playing a decisive role in the rallying of hard Eurosceptics ahead of the 2019 European election. ; Članak se bavi višestrukim razlozima preobrazbe Sjeverne lige iz padanske regionalističke i separatističke stranke u talijansku nacionalističku i suverenističku stranku koja okuplja saveznike koji žele Europsku uniju vratiti u stanje prije Maastrichta. Analiza izbornih programa, učinaka europeizacije stranačkoga natjecanja, promjene stranačkoga sustava zbog promjene vodstva te utjecaja sudskih procesa na stranački život pokazala je kako Sjeverna liga nije pratila dugoročni trend promjene javnih politika nego se promijenila tek pod novim vođom Salvinijem. Salvini je djelomice uvezao suverenističku i nacionalističku viziju s europske stranačke pozornice te je nacionalizirao stranku na državnoj razini zbog vakuuma moći koji je ostao nakon Berlusconijeve ostavke. Preobrazba je povezala Salvinijev osobni svjetonazor s pragmatizmom nastalim borbom za opstanak zbog opasnosti sekvestracije. Nova Sjeverna liga sada ima prigodu postati glavna stranka desno od centra u Italiji te igrati odlučujuću ulogu u okupljanju tvrdih euroskeptika uoči europskih izbora 2019.

Autor razmatra politički profil Alternative za Njemačku kako bi pridonio razumijevanju njezine pojave u političkom životu Njemačke. Analizom izbornih programa provjerava njezin položaj na osi lijevo-desno te stavove o europskim integracijama, nacionalizmu i multikulturalizmu, te o ekonomskoj politici i demokraciji. Multivarijantnom regresijskom analizom ispituje prediktivnu snagu konfesionalnih, dobnih, obrazovnih, migracijskih i ekonomskih obilježja izbornih okruga u objašnjenju varijacije u postotku glasova. Istraživanjem biografskih obilježja članova vodstva stranke testira se pretpostavljena zajednička demografska i ideološka pozadina stranačke elite. Pokazalo se da Alternativa za Njemačku odudara od stavova drugih stranaka u gledanjima na Europsku uniju, nacionalizam, multikulturalizam i ekonomsku politiku, ali ne odskače značajno na osi lijevo-desno, kao ni prema stavovima o demokraciji. Za predikciju glasovanja za tu stranku najvažnijima su se pokazala regionalna (rascjep istok-zapad), dobna i ekonomska obilježja izbornih okruga. Biografska analiza stranačke elita otkriva visok postotak bivših članova njemačkih demokršćanskih stranaka, te prevlast starijih visokoobrazovanih muškaraca u njoj. ; This paper analyzes the political profile of the Alternative for Germany to contribute to the understanding of its emergence in the German political life. An analysis of electoral manifestos tests the party's left-right position, stances on European integration, nationalism, and multiculturalism as well as on economic policy and democracy. A multiple regression analysis examines the predictive power of religion, age, education, migration, and economic status as characteristics of electoral districts explaining the variation in the party's vote percentage. An assessment of biographies of the party's leadership tests the presumed common demographic and ideologic background of the party elite. The article shows that new party differs from other German parties regarding the EU, nationalism, and multiculturalism, and economic policy, yet does not represent an outlier on the left-right scale, nor in its stance on democracy. The study of predictors of the vote for the Alternative for Germany has shown that regional (East/West cleavage), age and economic characteristics of electoral districts hold most importance. The biographic analysis of the party elite reveals a high percentage of previous CDU/CSU members and a dominance of elderly, well-educated men.