Suchergebnisse

Reviews and discusses: Shifting Contexts: Transformations in Anthropological Knowledge, M. Strathern (ed.), (London 1995); The Pursuit of Certainty: Religious and Cultural Formulations, W. James (ed.), (London, 1995); and Worlds Apart: Modernity through the Prism of the Local, D. Miller (ed.), (London, 1995). (Original abstract-amended)

This study employs a decision model to study the effects on popular support of candidate chances and candidate moderation in the American presidential nomination process. The decision model draws upon psychological and rational choice theories of decision making to accommodate both the complexity of choice citizens face in the typical nomination campaign, and the need to keep decision costs in bounds. We use the model to simulate voter decision making under repeated trials of nomination campaigns. The simulation trials vary the chances candidates have of winning their party's nomination, and the ideological moderation of competing nomination candidates. Our results show that increasing a candidate's chances for the nomination can have substantial payoff in support, but that the consequences of moderating a candidate's ideological stand are more muted. Our research speaks to broader guest ions of decision making when information costs are high but cognitive effort remains low, and to the resolution of intraparty conflict in a dynamic and volatile political environment. (European Journal of Political Research / FUB)