Suchergebnisse

This note traces the course of the price of crude oil back to 1880 and attempts to assess the changes in its purchasing value by deflating it by the export prices of manufactured goods. The purchasing power of the posted price of crude oil declined through the 1960s, even without allowance for significant discounts, and then trebled in 1974. The sixfold nominal rise of the oil price from 1972 to 1977 compares with a 150 per cent increase in the prices of other primary products, and a rise of about 75 per cent in the price level of manufactured goods in world trade.

Figures published recently in Sweden illustrate the implications of Britain's failure to improve productivity in the 1960s as quickly as continental Western Europe. Though wage costs per unit of output in manufacturing industry have risen faster in Britain than in other major industrial countries, the statistics show that employers' total payments per hour of work are now lower here than in almost any industrial country except Japan.

The purpose of this note is to analyse the size of plant in Britain, Germany and some other European countries, in order to answer the question : are there any differences here which might throw light on Britain's competitive position?The main conclusion concerns large plants-those employing more than 1,000 people-in Germany and Britain. In Germany these large plants tend to be larger, in terms of employment, than in Britain. This is particularly marked in plants in industries producing for export. In all manufacturing industry, the typical large German plant was one-tenth larger than the British (in employment) ; in the six most important export industries, it was found to be one-third larger.

The purpose of the Enquiry, whose results are reported in this article, was to assess the competitiveness of British exports in five Eastern European countries—Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. The Enquiry also investigated, more generally, the possibilities of promoting trade with these five countries. They were chosen because their trade with other countries is almost entirely the monopoly of specialised foreign trade corporations;(1) hence for each category of products there is only one buyer in each country. It is therefore possible to make some assessment of the competitiveness of British exports from the consumer end without an impossibly large number of interviews. These foreign trade corporations keep in touch with all the main suppliers both inside and outside the Comecon area, and are therefore in a good position to answer questions about the competitiveness of various Western countries' exports—questions concerning not only statistically quantifiable aspects (such as price) but also such matters as packaging and public relations.

Paper and board are typical intermediate products. Very little goes directly into personal or public consumption; the vast bulk goes to other industries—and to a wide range of industries at that. Of the 51 industry groups distinguished in the 1954 Input-Output Tables, only two (agriculture and oil refining) are shown as having no direct purchases of paper and board. Consequently any projection of future demand is a complex exercise.

Imports of manufactured goods, both of finished manufactures and of textiles, have been rising rapidly in Britain—over 50 per cent in the last five years ; they are now much bigger, in relation to national output, than they were before the war.

After a brief description of the National Institute's approach to forecasting the price development of the major commodities in world trade this note presents a simple method for checking the aggregate outcome of that exercise.

The demand for and supply of paper and board were studied in an article published in 1965 in the Review which surveyed past trends and contained forecasts for 1970 and also for 1975. The present article carries forward the analysis of trends, compares the previous forecast with the actual outcome for 1970, reassesses the prospects for 1975, and extends the forecast period to 1980.

Two surveys of the future of British transport were published in March of this year: 'The reshaping of British Railway' and 'The transport needs of Great Britain in the next twenty years'. The second of these sets out, in general terms, the relationship between transport needs and economic growth. This article, therefore, does not attempt to go over this ground again: its purpose is to provide background material to some of the issues raised by the two reports. It discusses, first—since this is the main point of current discussion—the social costs of the closures proposed. Secondly, it looks at the forecasts of the total demand for freight transport. Thirdly, it considers the particular problem the railways have, in that they are competing with transport owned and controlled by the user himself. Fourthly, the article sets out some comparisons of railway finances in various European countries. At the end of the article there is a collection of transport statistics.

Few industries can have had such a reversal of expectations in so short a time as the coal industry. In April 1956 the National Coal Board, looking at the prospects for the next ten years, could say confidently: 'Even in the longer term, the problem of over-production for the coal industry can scarcely arise'. Over the next four years, total coal production fell 7 per cent, and coal stocks more than doubled.