Suchergebnisse

"This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation - targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory's policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions."

"The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet, the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing, policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues such as savings and productivity, and from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to, adversely, affect oil supply and demand, and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes and think tanks"--

"The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet, the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing, policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues such as savings and productivity, and from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to, adversely, affect oil supply and demand, and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes and think tanks"--

We estimate an unrestricted VAR to summarize the dynamics of the stringency of policy and COVID-19 infections in New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. using the newly published Stringency Index by the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, Hale et al. (2020). The stringency of the policy responds positively to the number of new infections, and new infection cases respond negatively to the increase in the stringency of the policy. New Zealand and Australia followed slightly different stringent policies, but both managed the pandemic remarkably well. Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. adopted different policies in terms of stringency and timing. Had Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. adopted the New Zealand's stringent policy they could have reduced the number of infection cases significantly, but not as much as in New Zealand because the stringency and timing of policy is endogenous and country-specific.

I extend the Glick and Rogoff (1995) aggregate time-series, empirical, intertemporal model of country-investment (and the current account) to a sectoral-level, and estimate it for New Zealand. I fit the model to panel data of eleven industries from 1988-2009. The sectoral-level investment growth is a function of lagged investment level, sector-specific TFP shocks, country-specific TFP shocks, and global TFP shocks. The estimates seem robust to government spending shocks and Terms of Trade shocks.